Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2012

River Flood Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

January 25, 2012Gallatin County, Wayne County, White County, Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this river flood warning at Jan 25, 2012, 9:40 AM CST for Gallatin County, Wayne County, White County, Illinois. It took effect at Jan 30, 2012, 3:00 AM CST. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 25, 2012, 9:40 AM CST (15:40 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 30, 2012, 3:00 AM CST
Expired
Feb 2, 2012, 9:29 AM CST
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Paducah, KY
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Gallatin County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Little Wabash River at Carmi (CARI2).

Action stage
24 ft
Minor stage
27 ft
Moderate stage
32 ft
Major stage
35 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03381495, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

409 
WGUS43 KPAH 251540
FLWPAH
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
940 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH, KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ILLINOIS... 

  LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI 

.HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO 
CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE. CARMI ILLINOIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE CRESTING AT 27.7 NEXT TUESDAY.
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-261940-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FL.W.0004.120128T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120128T0430Z.120131T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH, KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO 27.7 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
16 follow-up statements
285 
WGUS83 KPAH 260423
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
1023 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER IN 
  ILLINOIS...AT CARMI AFFECTING GALLATIN...WAYNE AND WHITE COUNTIES. 
 
.WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE
WABASH RIVER...WITH MINOR FLOOD CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT 
CARMI WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-270823-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0004.120128T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120128T0430Z.120131T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1023 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 27.7 FEET BY TUESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
317 
WGUS83 KPAH 261530
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
930 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ILLINOIS...
 
  LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI 
 
.WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE
WABASH RIVER...WITH MINOR FLOOD CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT 
CARMI BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-271930-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0004.120130T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120130T0600Z.120201T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
930 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT  8:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
585 
WGUS83 KPAH 270247
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
847 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER IN 
  ILLINOIS...AT CARMI AFFECTING GALLATIN...WAYNE AND WHITE COUNTIES. 
 
.WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER WITH
MINOR FLOOD CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT CARMI OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-280647-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0004.120130T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120130T0600Z.120201T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
847 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 28.3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
082 
WGUS83 KPAH 271546
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
946 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE 
 
.WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
GREEN RIVER...WITH MINOR FLOOD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

KYC177-281946-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120131T0223Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.120124T1700Z.120128T0600Z.120130T2023Z.NO/
946 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
* AT  9:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 381.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 380.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 382.6 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$
461 
WGUS83 KPAH 280423
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
1023 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...

  LITTLE WABASH RIVER...AT CARMI...AFFECTING GALLATIN...WAYNE AND 
				   WHITE COUNTIES.
 
.MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI. 
LATEST STAGE WAS 24.6 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET. THE LITTLE 
WABASH IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING. SEE 
THE DETAILS BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-290823-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0004.120130T0959Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120130T0959Z.120201T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1023 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT  9:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 28.3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
162 
WGUS83 KPAH 281549
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
949 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ILLINOIS...
 
  LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI 
 
.MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI. 
LATEST STAGE WAS 25.1 FEET. THE LITTLE WABASH IS FORECAST TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-291949-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0004.120130T0900Z-120204T1200Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120130T0900Z.120201T0600Z.120204T0600Z.NO/
949 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2012

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY FEBRUARY 04...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY FEBRUARY 04
* AT  9:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 28.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
906 
WGUS83 KPAH 290447
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
1047 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...

  LITTLE WABASH RIVER...AT CARMI...AFFECTING GALLATIN...WAYNE AND 
                                      WHITE COUNTIES.
 
.MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI. THE 
RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE 
DETAILS BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-300847-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0004.120130T0900Z-120204T1200Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120130T0900Z.120201T0600Z.120204T0600Z.NO/
1047 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY FEBRUARY 04
* AT  9:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 28.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
830 
WGUS83 KPAH 291606
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
1006 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE 
 
.MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE 
GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE. THE RIVER CONTINUES TO FALL...AND IS FORECAST  
TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

KYC177-302006-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120201T0359Z/
/PRDK2.1.ER.120124T1700Z.120128T1600Z.120131T2159Z.NO/
1006 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING
* AT  9:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 383.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 380.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$
441 
WGUS83 KPAH 300511
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
1111 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...

   LITTLE WABASH RIVER...AT CARMI...AFFECTING GALLATIN...WAYNE AND 
			   WHITE COUNTIES.
 
.MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI. 
THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND 
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 28.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE 
IS 27.0 FEET. SEE THE DETAILS BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-310911-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0004.120130T0900Z-120204T1800Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120130T0900Z.120201T1200Z.120204T1200Z.NO/
1111 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 10:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 28.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
648 
WGUS83 KPAH 301636
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
1036 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ILLINOIS...
 
  LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI 
 
.THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE 
BEFORE CRESTING AT 28.0 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...IT WILL BEGIN
A SLOW FALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-312036-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120204T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120130T2100Z.120201T0600Z.120203T1800Z.NO/
1036 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT  9:30 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON
  AND WILL RISE TO 28.0 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
248 
WGUS83 KPAH 310505
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
1105 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
   LITTLE WABASH RIVER...AT CARMI...AFFECTING GALLATIN...WAYNE AND 
				       WHITE COUNTIES.
 
.THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE BY
TOMORROW EVENING AT CARMI. FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET. SEE THE DETAILS 
BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-010905-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120202T0600Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120201T0000Z.120201T0000Z.120202T0000Z.NO/
1105 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* AT 10:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE 
  TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
655 
WGUS83 KPAH 311453
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
853 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ILLINOIS...
 
  LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI 
 
.THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI ILLINOIS WILL CREST AT 27.4 FEET
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT WILL START TO FALL AND SHOULD GO BELOW FLOOD
STAGE ON FRIDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-011853-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120204T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120131T1430Z.120202T0000Z.120203T1800Z.NO/
853 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT  8:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST AT 27.4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
374 
WGUS83 KPAH 010424
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
1024 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...

   LITTLE WABASH RIVER...AT CARMI...AFFECTING GALLATIN...WAYNE AND 
				       WHITE COUNTIES.
 
.MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE 
LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING 
TO NEAR 27.3 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. FLOOD STAGE IS 27 FEET. SEE THE 
DETAILS BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-020824-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120204T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120131T1430Z.120201T1800Z.120203T1800Z.NO/
1024 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT  9:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.3 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
514 
WGUS83 KPAH 011459
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
859 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ILLINOIS...
 
  LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI 

.CARMI ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE STARTING A SLOW FALL. IT IS EXPECTED TO GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-021859-
/O.CON.KPAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120204T0000Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120131T1430Z.120201T1315Z.120203T1800Z.NO/
859 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING
* AT  8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
016 
WGUS83 KPAH 020352
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
951 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER IN 
  ILLINOIS...AT CARMI AFFECTING GALLATIN...WAYNE AND WHITE COUNTIES. 
 
.WATER LEVELS ALONG THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI APPEAR TO BE
CRESTING AT THIS TIME...AT A STAGE OF 27.1 FEET...AND IS FORECAST TO
FALL BELOW THE FLOOD STAGE OF 27 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-030600-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120203T0600Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120131T1430Z.120201T1315Z.120203T0000Z.NO/
951 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER APPEARS TO BE CRESTING AT THIS TIME.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$
088 
WGUS83 KPAH 021529
FLSPAH
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY
929 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ILLINOIS...
 
  LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI 
 
.THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI ILLINOIS HAS GONE BELOW FLOOD 
STAGE. FOR THIS REASON...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW 
CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATED
FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/

&&

ILC059-191-193-021559-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120203T0600Z/
/CARI2.1.ER.120131T1430Z.120201T1315Z.120202T1130Z.NO/
929 AM CST THU FEB 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER AT CARMI.
* AT  8:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 27.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 5:30 AM THURSDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL TO 26.5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 27.0 FEET...THE INUNDATION OF COUNTY ROADS BEGINS.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 25, 3:28 AM CST, 6 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 25, 3:28 AM CST, 6 hours 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A PROLONGED LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ORIENTATION AND PERSISTENCE
OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA WILL AID IN
THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AREA WIDE SHOULD BE COMMON
BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH 9 AM CST/...
ALTHOUGH SATURATION OF THE LAYER SHOULD OCCUR QUITE QUICKLY ALONG
THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK...SOME WET-
BULB ISSUES MAY COME PLAY CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WORKING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE I-24/I-57 JUNCTION IN EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN
ONWARD TO THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX FROM DAYBREAK TO AROUND 9 AM CST IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY...SOME PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE RAZORS EDGE AT OR NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. FOR UNTREATED
ROADS...THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME BRIEF SLICK SPOTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING.

WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON SLICK ROADS THIS MORNING AND
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM/ 9 AM CST TODAY THROUGH 6 PM CST THURSDAY/...

THE TRANSITION FROM A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TO A
BONIFIDE HIGH POP EVENT IN THE SHORT TERM APPEARS TO BE AT HAND
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL INTENSITIES WILL NOT
BE HIGH...THE DURATION AND THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE
HIGH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS SUSTAINED LIFT FROM THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WAFFLES ACROSS THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

THE 21Z TUESDAY/03Z WEDNESDAY SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE /SREF/ GUIDANCE
AND THE 00Z WEDNESDAY DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE ARE EERILY
SIMILAR IN THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSED LOW IN TEXAS...THE
ORIENTATION OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOSING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY WITH TIME...AND THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BORDER COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

COULD NOT SEE ANY REASON NOT TO CONTINUE GOING CATEGORICAL WITH
POPS/WEATHER FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS /TODAY AND TONIGHT/ FOR THE
ENTIRE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...TAPERING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
THE SUBSEQUENT 12-18 HOURS /THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING/.

THE SREF/GFS ARE ALSO IN LINE WITH THE PHASING OF THE EVOLVING
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED LOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WFO PAH FORECAST
AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO SERVE AS THE LINE
OF DEMARCATION FOR RAIN VS. NO RAIN WITH TIME. ADJUSTED
POP/WEATHER FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TRANSITION ON THURSDAY.

FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PROJECTED RAINFALL...SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE BROAD-BRUSHED AT THIS
TIME...OWING TO ANY WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION DRAG TO
THE SURFACE AND VARIATIONS WITHIN THE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LIKELY TOO MUCH DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
TODAYS HIGHS AND TONIGHTS LOWS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT
MOST FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW FORECAST
TO SET UP. STILL NOT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO WARRANT PRECIP MENTION
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE DIVERGED WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE RATHER MUNDANE LOOK WITH RESPECT TO THE
FEATURES MOVING THROUGH A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW...AND LOW CONFIDENCE
MEANS WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AT THIS
TIME. NO PRECIP FORECAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE LONGER TERM ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...BEGINNING MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIP...THEN COME DOWN AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATE. CIGS WILL BE LOW TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES.
MAINLY NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST...GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ACCOUNTING FOR THE SPATIAL VARIATION OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY...ADJUSTED STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE EVENT TO
REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

THE MAY ADJUSTMENT FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WAS TO RAISE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THREE QUARTERS
TO NEAR ONE INCH...AND MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A POPLAR
BLUFF MO...PADUCAH KY...MADISONVILLE KY LINE DOWN ABOUT ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE. THE BIG QUESTION
WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE POPLAR BLUFF MO-MADISONVILLE
KY LINE. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS NEAR 1.75 TO LOCALLY 2.00 INCHES
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR NOW...THE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
RAIN EVENT SHOULD SERVE AS AT LEAST AN APPROXIMATE BASE FOR
EXPECTED RAINFALL...PLUS OR MINUS ONE-QUARTER INCH. KEPT CLOSE TO
THE NCEP HPC GUIDANCE AND ACKNOWLEDGE THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE
PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE THAT RUNOFF FROM
THE SATURATED GROUND WILL FEED INTO LOW-LYING AREAS...STREAMS AND
RIVER...LEADING TO A RISE OF WATER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
THE RISE SHOULD BE GRADUAL...BUT WILL AGGRAVATE FORECAST RIVER
LEVELS IN FLOOD OR ALREADY IN FLOOD. IN ADDITION...THE NORMAL
AREAS THAT SEE FLOODING DURING MINOR RAINFALL EVENTS WILL LIKELY
SEE WATER LEVEL RISES. AT THIS TIME...CANNOT RULE THAT SOME AREAS
MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WITH TIME...BUT THAT WILL BE ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS WELL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...CN
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 25, 4:18 AM CST, 5 hours 22 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
418 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
418 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF RAINFALL MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THIS WINTRY MIX.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY TONIGHT. NONE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION MAY CAUSE BRIEF
OR MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THOSE LOCATIONS OFTEN PRONE TO FLOODING.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE WABASH RIVER AT NEW
HARMONY...THE GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE...AND THE OHIO RIVER AT
SHAWNEETOWN. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN...
MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG SEVERAL OTHER POINTS ON THE
OHIO RIVER WITH TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
PADUCAH FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAINFALL ACCUMULATING ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION MAY CAUSE BRIEF
OR MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR URBAN AREAS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
THOSE LOCATIONS OFTEN PRONE TO FLOODING.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE WABASH RIVER AT NEW
HARMONY...THE GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE...AND THE OHIO RIVER AT
SHAWNEETOWN. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN...MINOR
FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG SEVERAL OTHER POINTS ON THE OHIO
RIVER WITH TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS WEATHER EVENT...ALONG WITH ANY
REPORTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR MINOR FLOODING DURING THE EVENT
ARE ENCOURAGED.

SMITH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 25, 3:59 AM CST, 5 hours 41 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
359 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

ILZ075>078-080>083-087-092-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>003-006-008-
009-012-014>022-MOZ086-100-107>112-114-251500-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-GALLATIN-ALEXANDER-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-
SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-TRIGG-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-BOLLINGER-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...SHAWNEETOWN...CAIRO...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...MAYFIELD...BENTON...MURRAY...CADIZ...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...MARBLE HILL...
PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...
SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
359 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...PERSISTENT RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ONCE THE RAIN MOVES INTO YOUR AREA TODAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF INTO
DITCHES...STREAMS...RIVERS AND LOW-LYING AREAS...FILLING THEM UP.
SOME PONDING ON AREAS ROADWAYS MAY ALSO BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN
POORLY DRAINED OR URBAN AREAS.

KEEP CHILDREN AND PETS FROM PLAYING IN OR NEAR ANY DITCHES OR
CREEKS THAT ARE FULL OR OVERFLOWING. IF YOU SEE WATER COVERING
A ROAD ALONG YOUR PATH OF TRAVEL...SEEK AN ALTERNATE ROUTE TO YOUR
DESTINATION.

ILZ084>086-088>091-093-094-KYZ004-005-007-010-011-013-MOZ076-087-
251500-
JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-PULASKI-
MASSAC-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-LIVINGSTON-CRITTENDEN-LYON-CALDWELL-
PERRY MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...MOUND CITY...
METROPOLIS...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...SMITHLAND...MARION...
EDDYVILLE...PRINCETON...PERRYVILLE...CAPE GIRARDEAU
359 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER PART OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH 9 AM CST...

...PERSISTENT RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FROM NOW THROUGH 9 AM CST...PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THROUGH
ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING MAY FALL AS A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE QUAD STATE REGION.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL STRETCH FROM MURPHYSBORO ILLINOIS...PERRYVILLE
AND CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST TO BENTON AND VIENNA
ILLINOIS...TO PADUCAH KENTUCKY...THEN ONWARD TO MARION AND
PROVIDENCE KENTUCKY THROUGH 9 AM CST.

SOME GROUND AND ROAD TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK AND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED ROADS AND
SURFACES.

FOR THOSE OF YOU TRAVELING TO WORK OR SCHOOL THIS MORNING...ALLOW
A LITTLE EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION...ESPECIALLY IF
PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY FALLING BEFORE YOU LEAVE.

THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING
AND BRING GROUND AND ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

THE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL RUN OFF INTO
DITCHES...STREAMS...RIVERS AND LOW-LYING AREAS...FILLING THEM UP.
SOME PONDING ON AREAS ROADWAYS MAY ALSO BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN
POORLY DRAINED OR URBAN AREAS.

KEEP CHILDREN AND PETS FROM PLAYING IN OR NEAR ANY DITCHES OR
CREEKS THAT ARE FULL OR OVERFLOWING. IF YOU SEE WATER COVERING
A ROAD ALONG YOUR PATH OF TRAVEL...SEEK AN ALTERNATE ROUTE TO YOUR DESTINATION.

SMITH
Special weather statement, Jan 25, 7:50 AM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
750 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

ILZ075>078-081>083-086-087-091-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ010-014>016-
018>021-251530-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-SALINE-
GALLATIN-HARDIN-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-
CRITTENDEN-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...
HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT BRANCH...
PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...
MARION...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE
750 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...

LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
TRI STATE REGION OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
30 TO 32 DEGREES. SO...AS THE LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
THE AREA...THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS.
EVEN IF TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THEY MAY COME
BACK DOWN ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS.

THROUGH 930 AM OR 1000 AM...TRAVEL CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
Special weather statement, Jan 25, 9:26 AM CST, 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
926 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

ILZ075>078-082-083-087-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ014>016-018>021-
251700-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-GALLATIN-GIBSON-
PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-
HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...SHAWNEETOWN...FORT BRANCH...
PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE
926 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET IS STRUGGLING TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MT VERNON TO CARMI ILLINOIS
AND ON TO HENDERSON AND OWENSBORO KENTUCKY HAD CLIMBED TO 32
DEGREES BY 9 AM...BUT AS THE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH 11
AM...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
AS A RESULT...A FEW SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA BRIDGES THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE AREA BY NOON.

THROUGH 1100 AM...TRAVEL CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

DRS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 25, 10:52 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningPAHHardin, Pope34 hr
Jan 25, 11:08 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningPAHMassac14 days
Jan 25, 11:08 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningPAHMassac, Pulaski14 days
Jan 25, 11:08 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningPAHAlexander, Pulaski14 days

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2012Every river flood warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.