Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THE CENTER OF FORMER HURRICAN ISAAC IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING AND IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE EASTWARD...
ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. IN THE PROCESS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE QUAD STATE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

AS EXPECTED...DRY SLOT WORKING NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WHERE NEW CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIR. CURENT THINKING IS THAT A BROAD AREA/LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE DRY SLOT...PRODUCING A LARGE
SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL /1.5-2 INCHES/ THAT WILL PUSH SLOWLY
EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND MUCH OF WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONTINUED TO GO WITH STRAIGHT HPC QPF FOR TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS TAPERING OFF
TOWARD MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL VIA A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...AND STILL FEEL THAT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE UNNECESSARY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED
MUCH RAINFALL YET...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE HEAVY RAINS
BASED ON THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

RAIN CHANCES...QPF...ETC WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF ISAAC WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

MODELS WANT TO TAKE THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC AND MOVE THEM SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE SYSTEM NEAR FLORIDA. ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON STATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS HAPPENS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. BY THURSDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY. HOW MUCH DEPENDS UPON WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF MOST OF THE RAIN UNTIL NEXT
SATURDAY.

UNTIL THAT SYSTEM GETS HERE LATER IN THE WEEK...THE MOISTURE FROM
ISAAC WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING HIGH AND
ON-OFF LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. VERY DIFFICULT
TO TIME ANY REAL TRIGGERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

LOWERED TO IFR AND LIFR FOR COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE LINE OF TSRA
PASSES EACH SITE. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS UNTIL PRECIP REACHES THE SITE
THEN SLOWLY GOING DOWN TO MVFR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND IFR AROUND 5
HOURS AFTER MAIN LINE OF STORMS PASS. MOST AREAS WILL STAY AT
LEAST MVFR AFTER SUNRISE AND SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID TIME OF TAFS AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-022030-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
324 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE ACROSS THAT PART OF THE QUAD STATE REGION GENERALLY WEST OF
A MURRAY TO QWENSBORO KENTUCKY LINE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS ON THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER EITHER ALL OR PART OF
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO TO MURRAY KENTUCKY. SPOTTERS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ANY FLOODING THAT MAY BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
724 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CARBONDALE              37.72N 89.22W
09/01/2012  M4.30 INCH       JACKSON            IL   ASOS

&&

SMITTY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>