Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
856 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. COOLER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SITES. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH
TOMORROW.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER REMAINS THE BIGGEST STORY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WICHITA FALLS TO ADA TO ATOKA LINE...THOUGH
REACHING 105 DEGREES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CANCEL IT.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR
BASICALLY IN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA...SO KEPT
20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THESE AREAS. IF STORMS DEVELOP...
GUSTY WINDS...POSSIBLY WITH SEVERE GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH...COULD
OCCUR WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND
1500 J/KG. ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE A QUIET AND COOLER NIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 60S SEEM REASONABLE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH.

MONDAY WILL BE HOTTER THAN TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
SIMILAR TO TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WENT WITH
THE WARMER 00Z METMOS NUMBERS WHICH SEEMED MORE REASONABLE
CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT IS. HELD OFF WITH HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH MAY BE CLOSE TO 105 DEGREES FOR HEAT INDICES
VALUES SOUTHEAST OF MARIETTA TO SEMINOLE LINE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS DEVELOPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT DID NOT
MENTION AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE BELOW 15 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL EVEN BE HOTTER WITH ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS INDICATED A
WEAK FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SO KEPT
LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS DUE TO DECENT
SHEAR...WHICH WOULD POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. CLOUDS SHOULD
KEPT MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...EXPECT VERY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...THEN CONFIDENCE DECREASES
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS SOME LONG TERM MODELS HINTED AT INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR NOW...WENT WELL ABOVE 00Z MEXMOS
TEMPERATURES AND KEPT A DRY FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR RAIN IN THE CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71 101  73 105 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         68 102  73 106 /   0  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  74 103  76 105 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           63 100  71 102 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     63 101  72 105 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         73 101  73 103 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ039>048-050>052.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

25/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1157 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS....LEAVING A STABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND PERHAPS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH HOT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND THE LINGERING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHICH MAY IGNITE WILDFIRES. ONE OR TWO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY AUG 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...INCREASED WINDS...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...AND HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS...ONGOING DROUGHT AND CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH FIRE DANGER.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5
AM MONDAY.

AUSTIN/MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
742 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

OKZ052-060115-
BRYAN OK-
742 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BRYAN COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CADDO...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURANT...CADDO...BOKCHITO...ARMSTRONG AND BLUE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3388 9614 3397 9644 3416 9631 3416 9625
      3411 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 19DEG 8KT 3408 9623

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1039 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

OKZ046-050-060415-
LOVE OK-CARTER OK-
1039 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LOVE AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1035 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH
OF RUBOTTOM...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEON...BURNEYVILLE...RUBOTTOM AND COURTNEY.

LAT...LON 3384 9747 3389 9745 3391 9748 3390 9756
      3399 9756 3399 9754 3400 9756 3410 9756
      3414 9735 3386 9726 3389 9731 3385 9733
      3388 9733 3382 9737 3382 9743
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 350DEG 17KT 3405 9746

MAXWELL