Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
949 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST...AND IS NOW JUST A COUNTY OR SO AWAY FROM
OUR FORECAST AREA. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
OF THE COMPLEX WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...BUT REMNANTS OF IT MAY
WELL REACH ALMOST ALL THE WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT POPS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT BEST ESTIMATE
BASED ON SHORT-RANGE MODELS AND RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE MADE
SIMILAR UPDATES FOR SKY CONDITION AND OTHER RELATED ELEMENTS.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO.

UPDATES TO TEXT FORECASTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/

AVIATION...
TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OK LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THUS WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR NW OK SITES. EASTWARD EXTENT OF
STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FARTHER
EAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME
BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE JUST ON THE EDGE OF NORTHWEST FLOWS
INFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP ACROSS SOME PART OF OKLAHOMA OR NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

MODELS DEVELOP STORMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTN... THEN
BRING THEM EAST AFFECTING NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. SOME
OF THESE COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WIND/HAIL. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS NORTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX EXPECTED TO EXIT
EAST/NORTHEAST PART OF AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAJORITY OF SUNDAY
REMAINING DRY.

AFTERWARD... MODELS BRING WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO AREA AND
THIS WILL BE MAIN FOCUS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK. LATEST GFS TAKES THIS
FRONT FARTHER SOUTH KEEPING BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH
OF RED RIVER BY TUE. HOWEVER ECMWF KEEPS FRONT FARTHER NORTH...
CLOSER TO I-40 CORRIDOR. WILL KEEP LOW POPS AREA-WIDE AT THIS
POINT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  10
HOBART OK         68  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
GAGE OK           65  96  67  90 /  60  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     67  90  70  89 /  40  30  30  20
DURANT OK         68  92  71  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1130 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF I-35.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. A
LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS...WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ALTHOUGH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
5 AM SUNDAY JUNE 3.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1039 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

OKZ004-030430-
HARPER OK-
1039 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARPER COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM
CDT...

AT 1036 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH
OF SLAPOUT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAVERNE AND ROSSTON.

LAT...LON 3672 9972 3667 9969 3664 9999 3690 10001
      3700 9980
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 254DEG 15KT 3673 10012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1112 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

OKZ009-030500-
ELLIS OK-
1112 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 1200 AM CDT...

AT 1110 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 9 MILES EAST OF FOLLETT TO 6 MILES WEST OF HIGGINS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHATTUCK...ARNETT...GAGE...FARGO AND CATESBY.

LAT...LON 3657 9999 3658 9997 3659 9961 3607 9963
      3605 9964 3602 9999 3652 10001
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 243DEG 35KT 3647 9998 3610 10014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1127 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

OKZ009-010-014>016-021-022-033-034-030515-
ROGER MILLS OK-WOODWARD OK-HARMON OK-GREER OK-CUSTER OK-DEWEY OK-
WASHITA OK-ELLIS OK-BECKHAM OK-
1127 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROGER MILLS...WOODWARD...
HARMON...GREER...WEST CENTRAL CUSTER...DEWEY...WESTERN WASHITA...
ELLIS AND BECKHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1125 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM FARGO TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF REYDON TO CHILDRESS...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH. STRONG WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WOODWARD...ELK
CITY...SAYRE...MANGUM...HOLLIS...SHATTUCK...
MOORELAND...ERICK...CHEYENNE...VICI...CANUTE...ARNETT...HAMMON...
GAGE...LEEDEY...FARGO...CARTER...REYDON...SHARON AND CAMARGO.

LAT...LON 3555 9996 3659 9999 3645 9896 3639 9896
      3474 9950 3464 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 284DEG 33KT 3640 9952 3554 9989 3448 10022

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUFFALO                 36.83N 99.63W
06/02/2012                   HARPER             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A POWER LINE WAS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

NWS NORMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

OKZ005-006-010-011-030600-
WOODWARD OK-WOODS OK-MAJOR OK-ALFALFA OK-
1217 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WOODWARD...WOODS...MAJOR AND
NORTHWESTERN ALFALFA COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1213 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF AETNA TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF FREEDOM TO QUINLAN
TO VICI...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALVA...MOORELAND...WAYNOKA...FREEDOM...DACOMA...SHARON...MUTUAL...
CAPRON...AVARD...QUINLAN...CHESTER...ORION...CAMP HOUSTON AND
HOPETON.

LAT...LON 3700 9848 3658 9850 3618 9862 3616 9945
      3617 9946 3655 9924 3699 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 257DEG 30KT 3699 9899 3663 9906 3654 9905
3620 9932

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

OKZ021-033>037-TXZ083>085-030600-
HARMON OK-GREER OK-KIOWA OK-TILLMAN OK-JACKSON OK-BECKHAM OK-
WILBARGER TX-HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
1221 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARMON...GREER...KIOWA...
TILLMAN...JACKSON...SOUTHWESTERN BECKHAM...WILBARGER...HARDEMAN
AND FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1221 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF GRANITE TO ELDORADO TO 12 MILES EAST OF
SWEARINGEN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPORS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTUS...VERNON...HOBART...QUANAH...MANGUM...HOLLIS...GRANITE...
SNYDER...TIPTON...BLAIR...CHILLICOTHE...MEDICINE MOUND...OLUSTEE...
ELDORADO...LONE WOLF...MOUNTAIN PARK...DUKE...ROOSEVELT...GOTEBO AND
GOULD.

LAT...LON 3424 10000 3430 9999 3468 10001 3506 9998
      3510 9880 3432 9906 3395 9940 3407 10004
      3424 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 285DEG 33KT 3505 9938 3445 9961 3408 9995