Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL AFFECT ALL BUT NW OK SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT FROM
NCNTRL OK INTO TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SWD
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

ISO-SCT TSRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...
MAINLY AFFECT KCSM...KPNC...KOKC...KOUN...AND KHBR DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BY 12Z. THESE STORMS COULD
BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY
DIRECTLY IMPACT A SITE. THINK KOKC WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY 06-08Z.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA 09-16Z. ONLY KEPT TEMPO MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KSPS WHERE CONFIDENCE OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS IS MODERATE.

A FEW SHRA MAY BE LINGER OVER THE AREA AFTER 12Z...SO ADDED VCSH
AT SOME LOCATIONS. A FEW TSRA MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 19Z...BUT DID
NOT MENTION VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM MODELS LEADS TO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD FROM KANSAS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA A LITTLE
LESS CERTAIN. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA BUT
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER/NEAR THE REGION AND SUBTLE
S/WVS IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW.

UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY ON SO WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY WITH WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  82  62  83 /  60  40  40  30
HOBART OK         64  82  62  85 /  60  30  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  87  63  88 /  20  30  30  30
GAGE OK           56  76  56  81 /  40  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  79  59  80 /  50  50  30  10
DURANT OK         66  88  63  86 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/17/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1022 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1022 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 4 AM CDT
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE RISK AREA IS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CROWELL TEXAS
TO WICHITA FALLS TO EL RENO TO STILLWATER OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOW UNTIL 4 AM CDT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

IMPACTS...
HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS IS THE MAIN HAZARD AND CAN CAUSE DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...CROPS AND CARS.  A FEW ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
65 MPH MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES...TREES AND UTILITY LINES.

DISCUSSION...
AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND BRING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FEW ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE RISK AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS RELATIVELY LOW.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SUNDAY.

MBS

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