Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE IS HOVERING AROUND THE 100TH MERIDIAN THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST BEFORE STOPPING
AROUND SUNSET. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...AND SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS SOME NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE CLEAR AREA SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER AND CURRENT STORMS. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM
NEAR WICHITA FALLS TO AROUND ARDMORE AND DUNCAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS NOTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE.

TOMORROW LOOKS MUCH LIKE TODAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITHOUT THE
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS THAT PREVENTED MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM WARMING TO NEAR/ABOVE RECORD LEVELS.

THE MAIN CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST ARE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE GREATLY SLOWED THE COLD FRONT...AND THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE...GIVEN THE FORECAST FLOW ALOFT.
SO...THIS FORECAST INCLUDES A SLOWED FRONTAL POSITION...AND THE
RELATED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS...ETC.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGE. MODELS LATELY HAVE HAD A TENDENCY
OCCASIONALLY TO PUSH COLD FRONTS TOO FAR SOUTH...AND IF THIS IS
THE CASE HERE...THE WEEK AHEAD COULD BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE GFS BUILDS QUITE A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE SEEMS TO LED A LOT OF SUPPORT TO THIS
SCENARIO...BUT ITS MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE
CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  94  70  89 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         67  97  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  97  72  93 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           57  95  61  87 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     72  89  70  84 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         71  89  70  87 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

22/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
543 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051715-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
543 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SEYMOUR AND
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...TO DUNCAN...PURCELL...AND HOLDENVILLE IN
OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOW
THROUGH 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY DRYLINE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. CLEARING SKIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID
SURFACE HEATING AND A VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS AIDED IN FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND
RAPID THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND ORGANIZATION. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
AND LITTLE INHIBITION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
OCCUR TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND COLLAPSING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND EVEN EARLY TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM SATURDAY.

MAXWELL/BURKE/AUSTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             1 S THORNBERRY          34.04N 98.39W
05/04/2012  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
658 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 ENE BURKBURNETT       34.09N 98.53W
05/04/2012  E3.00 INCH       WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS NORMAN

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