Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRONG...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY... BUT DRY
WITH VFR CEILINGS BY 15Z.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012/

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
DRYLINE ALSO EXTENDS SOUTH JUST WEST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND FRONT
IN SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWN THE COLD
FRONT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK. OTHER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE FA AND MOVE INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEADING
TO A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS ACROSS THE FA. MODELS SHOW THE REGION BEING
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH TO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE
FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  66  43  71 /  60  20  10  10
HOBART OK         52  69  43  73 /  40  20   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  72  45  71 /  50  30   0  10
GAGE OK           47  69  40  77 /  40  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     49  65  40  72 /  60  10  10  10
DURANT OK         57  65  46  70 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
915 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
915 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER TO EL RENO...TO HOBART AND HOLLIS.
THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS...
MAINLY NEAR A COLD FRONT IN THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA...AND SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STORM INTENSITY WAS DECREASING
SOMEWHAT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

OVERNIGHT...THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDER WILL INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF DEEP LIFTING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE ODDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE...
BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX AND ROLL THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE NIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY APR 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
			  NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AFTER 10 PM...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5
AM FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXZ083>085-200415-
WILBARGER TX-HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
1042 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILBARGER...SOUTHEASTERN
HARDEMAN AND NORTHEASTERN FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1040 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE MOUND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VERNON...GRAYBACK...LOCKETT...OKLAUNION AND RAYLAND.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3421 9955 3422 9913 3397 9908 3403 9956
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 271DEG 28KT 3412 9949

30

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