Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR A SFC LOW ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN SW KANSAS/PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING. A
DRYLINE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THESES BOUNDARIES IN
THE PANHANDLES/KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FA. THESE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO ONE
OR MORE COMPLEXES THAT MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA. INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER NEAR THE SFC LOW SO IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...
A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS.

THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE BUT REMAIN IN/NEAR THE FA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST BY LATE THIS WEEK AS
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DRYLINE WEST OF OR IN THE FA LATE THIS WEEK INTO PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  73  56  67 /  50  30  40  40
HOBART OK         58  72  57  72 /  60  50  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  79  61  76 /  60  50  40  40
GAGE OK           55  70  53  69 /  60  50  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     53  69  49  65 /  30  20  40  40
DURANT OK         61  76  58  70 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...APPROXIMATELY 50
MILES WEST AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD TO ELK CITY TO ALTUS.
THE SLIGHT RISK IS FOR THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SUFFICIENT LIFT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND
SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO INITIALLY PRODUCE SUPERCELLS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
STORMS MAY THEN BECOME A COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA...AND
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM TUESDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
456 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             1 N WOODFORD            34.34N 97.28W
04/09/2012  E2.75 INCH       CARTER             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             2 N WOODWARD            36.46N 99.39W
04/09/2012  E2.50 INCH       WOODWARD           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS NORMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             1 N WOODWARD            36.45N 99.39W
04/09/2012  E2.75 INCH       WOODWARD           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS NORMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
503 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

OKZ014-021-092245-
ROGER MILLS OK-BECKHAM OK-
503 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGER MILLS AND
WEST CENTRAL BECKHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WHEELER...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ERICK...TEXOLA...SWEETWATER AND DEMPSEY.

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

LAT...LON 3555 9999 3554 9972 3543 9971 3520 9979
      3518 9986 3519 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 287DEG 26KT 3540 10018

WR