Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
IF ANY STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS SITE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL BECOME MVFR...IF NOT IFR...05-12Z...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE AT BEST. BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA CAN BE
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z. BELIEVE MOST TSRA WILL NOT AFFECT KOKC UNTIL 10Z
AT THE EARLIEST.

MBS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER... BOTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM NEW MEXICO... AND
ALSO AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE DRIFTING NORTH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW IN TIME AND SPACE OF SURFACE-BASED
ROTATING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AND BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ELEVATED. THE
NEW MEXICO/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FOCUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST AND MAINTAINS STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH... PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH UNTIL THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS WEEK STILL
LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT AND MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  78  51  75 /  40  60  40  20
HOBART OK         52  78  47  76 /  40  50  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  57  83  49  81 /  40  50  20  10
GAGE OK           47  74  41  71 /  50  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  76  51  70 /  40  60  50  30
DURANT OK         66  79  56  80 /  40  60  50  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES MUCH OF THE NWS NORMAN FORECAST
AREA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH 1 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...ROOFTOPS...AND VEGETATION FROM DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN BY 4 PM. FARTHER EAST...THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
HEATING OF AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AIR MASS...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL NEAR FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL STALL TO THE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE. BECAUSE THE LOW IS STALLING...THE NUMBER OF STORMS
OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY BE RELATIVELY
FEW...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE.
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING HAIL.

DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASING NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM
NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALSO ALONG A COLD FRONT
ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A RISK OF SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL UP
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY APR 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
706 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

OKZ031-032-030030-
SEMINOLE OK-HUGHES OK-
706 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEMINOLE AND WEST CENTRAL
HUGHES COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 705 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SASAKWA...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEMINOLE...WEWOKA...BOWLEGS AND LIMA.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3493 9661 3523 9678 3526 9678 3537 9656
      3501 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 156DEG 27KT 3501 9655

WR

604
WWUS84 KOUN 030008 NOR
SPSOUN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

OKZ009-014-015-030045-
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-
707 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS...
SOUTHWESTERN DEWEY AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

AT 705 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEEDEY...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEEDEY...ANGORA AND HARMON.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3600 9978 3617 9956 3616 9951 3589 9922
      3577 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 138DEG 29KT 3583 9936

WR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             3 SW LEEDEY             35.84N 99.38W
04/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY KOCO-TV STORM SPOTTER

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

TXZ087-088-030100-
BAYLOR TX-KNOX TX-
728 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BAYLOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 724 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GOREE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNDAY...GOREE...RHINELAND...VERA...BOMARTON AND RED SPRINGS.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3349 9969 3377 9950 3376 9948 3380 9948
      3382 9947 3366 9920 3339 9950 3340 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 216DEG 25KT 3347 9957

WR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 PM CDT MON APR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     HAIL             7 N ANGORA              35.93N 99.45W
04/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
813 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

TXZ083-084-087-030130-
HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-KNOX TX-
813 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDEMAN...FOARD AND KNOX
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 810 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF LAZARE TO 10 MILES WEST OF BENJAMIN...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROWELL...MEDICINE MOUND...BENJAMIN...MARGARET...THALIA...
GILLILAND...RHINELAND...TRUSCOTT...VERA AND COPPERS BREAK STATE
PARK.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. STAY ALERT AND LISTEN FOR WARNINGS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3352 9999 3422 9999 3436 9952 3345 9953
      3345 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 260DEG 47KT 3415 9996 3353 9997

WR