Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.AVIATION...
SEEMINGLY COMPLEX TAF CYCLE IS FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE MOVING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. OTHERWISE...WILL
SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURN AGAIN THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH IFR
AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
WE MOVE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS WEST OKLAHOMA
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM WEST OF A
SEYMOUR TEXAS TO WOODWARD OKLAHOMA LINE. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALLS MAY BE THE MAIN HAZARD ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
65 MPH...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SRH VALUES AND LCLS AROUND 4000 FT AGL.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS NEAR THE DRYLINE
ACROSS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PROBABLY FORM A LINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THERE REMAINS A LOWER CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. LATEST MODELS
HINTED THAT A SLOW MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AND PRODUCE
SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY REDUCE THE WIND THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE LINE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE COMBINATION OF ANOMOLOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS... ESPECIALLY EAST OF A PONCA CITY TO WICHITA FALLS
LINE. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON MONDAY AND LOWERED
THEM ACCORDINGLY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER
OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA NEAR DURANT OKLAHOMA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LOW WILL LINGER NEAR
THE AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER.

BEYOND THURSDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  68  49  61 /  70  90  60  60
HOBART OK         55  68  46  63 /  80  50  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  70  49  68 /  60  80  60  50
GAGE OK           52  66  38  61 /  70  20  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  67  50  58 /  70  80  60  70
DURANT OK         63  71  55  65 /  40 100  90  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
     014>016.

TX...NONE.
&&

84/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
421 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
421 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO
WATONGA AND LAWTON IN OKLAHOMA...TO ELECTRA AND WESTOVER IN TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THROUGH TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO
AUTOMOBILES...VEGETATION...AND ROOFTOPS. WHILE NOT THE MAIN
CONCERN...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 4 PM
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN
TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INTENSITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 4 PM...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE BALANCE BETWEEN THE CAP AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LIFTING...APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING...
WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...RESULTING IN
A THREAT OF LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. FARTHER
EAST...INSTABILITY DECREASES...AND HAIL SIZE WILL ALSO
DECREASE...BUT THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT DECREASE IN
STRENGTH. THE MAIN HAZARD OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAR 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EAST OF A LINE
FROM BLACKWELL...TO YUKON...CHICKASHA...AND WALTERS IN OKLAHOMA...
TO WICHITA FALLS AND SEYMOUR TEXAS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE RISK OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL
DECREASE...BUT THE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS WILL INCREASE. A WAVE
OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE
FORECAST TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM MARIETTA TO SHAWNEE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
MONDAY. UNSCHEDULED UPDATES ARE POSSIBLE.

MAXWELL/AUSTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             1 W HOLLIS              34.69N 99.93W
03/18/2012  E1.75 INCH       HARMON             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

OKZ014-190000-
ROGER MILLS OK-
631 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROGER MILLS COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM CDT...

AT 629 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SWEETWATER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHEYENNE...STRONG CITY...ROLL AND DEMPSEY.

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3581 9970 3587 9945 3544 9971 3546 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 204DEG 45KT 3547 9985

WR

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