Severe Thunderstorm Warning 487, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...EAST OF MAIN TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE TX PANHANDLE...AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER NRN/WRN OK. MVFR/IFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KT AND HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVERNIGHT. SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING. ONE SUCH POTENT SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN FA NEAR NE HUGHES COUNTY ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AROUND 245 PM. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM OF THIS STORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A SVR WATCH 651 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z FOR
LINCOLN... POTT...HUGHES...AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. LATER TONIGHT
CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIV ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER S NM WILL
IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OK. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FA AS THIS OCCURS AND MOST OF THE NWP
DETERMINISTIC...HIRES AND ENS MODELS SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT THROUGH 12Z. THE SYNOPTIC STATIONARY
BOUNDARY SHOULD MEANDER INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TOMORROW...MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN CO OPENS AND MOVES INTO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES NEAR NE CO...AND THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOWER MAXTS
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA (NOT TO MENTION CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED
CHC POPS).

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF
WEST TX/SE NM AND INTO NW TX/SE OK. BY THIS TIME A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL OK...WITH THE RRQ OF
THE UPPER JET SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN OR SW OK. EXPECT AT LEAST
CHC POPS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT FOR THE ENTIRE FA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY SATURDAY AS LOWER MID LEVEL THETAE
IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL NW/N FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN...CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  84  66  79 /  50  40  30  40
HOBART OK         66  83  65  77 /  70  50  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  88  66  81 /  40  30  20  50
GAGE OK           56  76  60  72 /  50  60  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     64  82  63  77 /  60  40  60  50
DURANT OK         68  89  67  88 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
815 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM ARCHER CITY AND HENRIETTA TEXAS...TO DUNCAN...OKLAHOMA CITY...
AND STILLWATER.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER
AREA OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FROM
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE TWO AREAS OF STORMS MAY FORM A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. TOWARD AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY SEP 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THOUGH
SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     HAIL             3 WNW MUSTANG           35.41N 97.77W
09/26/2012  E1.75 INCH       CANADIAN           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             5 WNW MUSTANG           35.42N 97.80W
09/26/2012  E3.00 INCH       CANADIAN           OK   STORM CHASER

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE FREDERICK          34.38N 99.00W
09/26/2012  M58 MPH          TILLMAN            OK   ASOS

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
948 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

OKZ035>038-044-TXZ085-086-090-270315-
COTTON OK-KIOWA OK-TILLMAN OK-JACKSON OK-COMANCHE OK-WICHITA TX-
WILBARGER TX-CLAY TX-
948 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COTTON...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...
TILLMAN...EAST CENTRAL JACKSON...COMANCHE...WICHITA...EASTERN
WILBARGER AND NORTHERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 944 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANITOU TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
INDIAHOMA TO 4 MILES NORTH OF LOVELAND TO 9 MILES WEST OF
BURKBURNETT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...BURKBURNETT...SHEPPARD AFB...IOWA PARK...
FREDERICK...ELECTRA...WALTERS...CACHE...SNYDER...TEMPLE...
GRANDFIELD...GERONIMO...TIPTON...PETROLIA...BYERS...RANDLETT...
CHATTANOOGA...MOUNTAIN PARK AND DAVIDSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 9934 3486 9851 3470 9823 3458 9815
      3386 9811 3384 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 246DEG 32KT 3455 9895 3449 9886 3436 9878
3409 9872

AUSTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

OKZ024-027-270315-
GRADY OK-CANADIAN OK-
951 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRADY AND CANADIAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 948 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CALUMET...WITH OTHER STORMS LOCATED NEAR
CONCHO...AND FURTHER SOUTH NEAR UNION CITY...MOVING EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO...YUKON...CONCHO...MUSTANG...TUTTLE...PIEDMONT...MINCO...
UNION CITY...CALUMET...BRIDGE CREEK AND RICHLAND.

LAT...LON 3522 9767 3521 9783 3533 9810 3538 9810
      3537 9821 3539 9825 3572 9830 3572 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 246DEG 14KT 3563 9818

AUSTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
953 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HAIL             3 S SEILING             36.11N 98.92W
09/26/2012  E1.25 INCH       DEWEY              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FM