Severe Thunderstorm Warning 461, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX TONIGHT. THE RAIN
MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK. THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
AT SOME LOCATIONS AND AT CERTAIN TIMES FOR MENTION IN TAFS. STRONG
VARIABLE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SSW WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SFC LOW IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLE. A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THERE ENE THROUGH SOUTHERN
KS...WHILE A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
TX PANHANDLE AND THE CAPROCK. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING MID TO UPPER FLOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTH WINDS REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE GULF...SO EXPECTED SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXTS FOR WED
AFTERNOON. POPS WERE DECREASED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT
SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER 00Z ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD EACH
DAY RESULTING IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  90  69  86 /  30  10  20  10
HOBART OK         71  90  69  85 /  30  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  92  70  90 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           64  86  64  81 /  20  20  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     76  82  66  82 /  60  30  50  40
DURANT OK         74  90  70  88 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/25/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1100 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK IS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A STILLWATER TO
ALTUS LINE.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY.
MEANWHILE... INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT
INTO THE AREA AS STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND EAST OF A DRYLINE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... A MINOR MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE... ALONG
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES... IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE. INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND FIELDS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WHICH MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY SEP 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS... AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN
MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THOUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5
AM WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

OKZ021-260000-
BECKHAM OK-
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BECKHAM COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 633 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
LUTIE TEXAS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

IF THIS STORM MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE A THREAT TO THE ERICK AND TEXOLA AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 10000 3532 9985 3507 9985 3504 9985
      3503 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 258DEG 18KT 3509 10019

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

TXZ087-260000-
KNOX TX-
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM CDT...

AT 633 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF
BENJAMIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENJAMIN AND RHINELAND.

LAT...LON 3368 9998 3376 9972 3375 9970 3351 9964
      3350 9965 3347 9999 3348 9999 3367 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 258DEG 18KT 3358 9999

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

TXZ087-260015-
KNOX TX-
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHERN TEXAS
     NORTHERN KNOX

AT 648 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRUSCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GILLILAND AND
TRUSCOTT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3383 9983 3381 9983 3382 9981 3382 9979
      3370 9957 3353 9994 3360 10000 3372 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 233DEG 21KT 3366 9992

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
719 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             9 W THOMAS              35.75N 98.91W
09/25/2012  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM