Severe Thunderstorm Warning 432, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1024 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE WILL BE SENT TO ADJUST POPS A BIT THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL AREAS/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT
THIS MORNING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. ONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OKC METRO FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF KTLX...SOUTHEAST THROUGH ATOKA
COUNTY. THE LAST ONE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WERE
POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...WHICH APPEARS IT MAY BE
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. POPS WERE ADJUSTED THROUGH 18Z TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  65  84  61 /  60  50  20   0
HOBART OK         88  65  86  61 /  60  50  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  70  88  62 /  60  60  20   0
GAGE OK           83  58  84  53 /  70  30  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     82  61  84  58 /  70  30  10   0
DURANT OK         88  70  83  62 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
455 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BRAMAN TO PONCA CITY.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 11 AM
THROUGH 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. LARGE
HAIL MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION AND AUTOMOBILES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATER TODAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ALLOWING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AS WEAK CAPPING
ERODES EARLY TODAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS...AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT AND GROWING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FOR SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY AUG 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SET TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
NOON TODAY...AND FREQUENT UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED AS MORE DETAILS
EMERGE REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

AUSTIN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
936 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

OKZ019-025-026-181500-
LOGAN OK-LINCOLN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-
936 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...WEST
CENTRAL LINCOLN AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM
CDT...

AT 933 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARCADIA...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUTHER AND ARCADIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 9742 3572 9744 3582 9713 3559 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 258DEG 11KT 3566 9738

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
941 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

OKZ004-005-010-181530-
HARPER OK-WOODWARD OK-WOODS OK-
941 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARPER...
NORTHEASTERN WOODWARD AND WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

AT 935 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SITKA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNOKA...FREEDOM...AVARD AND CAMP HOUSTON.

LAT...LON 3699 9860 3650 9891 3699 9963 3700 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 305DEG 35KT 3706 9956

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 957 AM
CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

OKZ018>020-024>026-181545-
LOGAN OK-LINCOLN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-KINGFISHER OK-PAYNE OK-CANADIAN OK-
957 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KINGFISHER...SOUTHWESTERN
PAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

AT 953 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR LANGSTON
TO NEAR OKARCHE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDMOND...GUTHRIE...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...NICHOLS HILLS...
PIEDMONT...PERKINS...LANGSTON...CASHION...RIPLEY...COYLE...ARCADIA...
CIMARRON CITY...CEDAR VALLEY...MERIDIAN...NAVINA AND SEWARD.

LAT...LON 3600 9677 3547 9759 3572 9794 3610 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 1453Z 305DEG 18KT 3588 9752

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1021 AM
CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

OKZ019-024>026-181600-
LOGAN OK-LINCOLN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-CANADIAN OK-
1021 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...LINCOLN...
OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

AT 1018 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM FROM 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PIEDMONT AND
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...EDMOND...MIDWEST CITY...DEL CITY...YUKON...BETHANY...
MUSTANG...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...CHOCTAW...HARRAH...NICHOLS
HILLS...SPENCER...PIEDMONT...CHANDLER...JONES...NICOMA PARK...
DAVENPORT...WELLSTON AND CARNEY.

LAT...LON 3559 9682 3546 9719 3538 9760 3538 9767
      3535 9773 3563 9781 3590 9718 3593 9662
      3586 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 276DEG 35KT 3578 9717 3561 9767

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

OKZ004-005-010-181615-
HARPER OK-WOODWARD OK-WOODS OK-
1026 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER...
NORTHEASTERN WOODWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 1115
AM CDT...

AT 1022 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST
OF FREEDOM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNOKA.

LAT...LON 3657 9880 3641 9935 3670 9952 3682 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 1522Z 308DEG 23KT 3672 9930