Severe Thunderstorm Warning 376, NWS Norman, OK

085 
WWUS54 KOUN 120149
SVSOUN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
849 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TXC009-077-120230-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0376.000000T0000Z-120612T0230Z/
CLAY TX-ARCHER TX-
849 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM 
CDT FOR CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN ARCHER COUNTIES...

AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO 
GOLF BALL SIZE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF NEWPORT. THIS STORM IS NOW MOVING 
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN 
CLAY COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL STRONG TO 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THROCKMORTON... YOUNG AND 
JACK COUNTIES AND ARE MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENRIETTA...BELLEVUE...WINDTHORST...BLUEGROVE...NEWPORT...LAKE 
ARROWHEAD...BUFFALO SPRINGS...JOY...SHANNON AND VASHTI. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. GET READY FOR WINDS OVER 70 MPH AND LARGE 
DAMAGING HAIL. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR INTERIOR ROOM OF 
A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 9807 3401 9797 3399 9795 3394 9798
      3394 9795 3392 9795 3391 9798 3347 9798
      3347 9842 3340 9842 3340 9873
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 235DEG 46KT 3349 9821 

$$

..SPEG.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON SOUTH AS WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... BUT
PROBABILITIES AT TAF SITES ARE TOO LOW FOR A TEMPO GROUP. PROB30
GROUPS ARE INCLUDED IN THE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS TAFS FOR
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH 10 PM CDT TONIGHT...BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE KEPT 20/30 PERCENT
CHANCES. STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR ABILENE TEXAS WHERE THE CAP
HAS BEEN BROKEN AND WILL MOVE EAST AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST. WITH
THE AIR BEING UNSTABLE WITH SOME SHEAR...THINK LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS BASEBALLS...AND DAMAGING WIND OF 65
MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOTICED THE LATEST HRRR RUNS
INDICATED ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT EAST OF I-35...SO KEPT 20 PERCENT
IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS QUITE
LOW DUE TO STRONG CAPPING.

AFTER 10 PM CDT TONIGHT...KEPT RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF A CLINTON TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO SWEETWATER LINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM AS LATEST
MODELS INDICATED THE MID LEVEL CAP WEAKENING WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO +9/10C. WITH ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR...A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WIND. THE FOCUS FOR
LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAK...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TUESDAY...KEPT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...MAINLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL THREAT
MAY BE LOWER COMPARED TO TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...KEPT LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  85  66  86 /  20  20  40  30
HOBART OK         64  87  67  89 /  20  40  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  88  71  91 /  40  30  50  30
GAGE OK           55  84  62  88 /   0  20  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     60  86  61  86 /   0   0  20  30
DURANT OK         71  87  70  88 /  50  30  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM STROUD...TO NORMAN...
TO DUNCAN...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF WARM AIR AT MID
LEVELS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. IF AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ARE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE CAP...THE RESULTING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...20 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...THROUGHOUT
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
TUESDAY.

CMS/II

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

TXZ089-090-120145-
CLAY TX-ARCHER TX-
815 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARCHER COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 813 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OLNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM HAS
PRODUCTED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR NEWCASTLE TEXAS. IF THIS STORM
MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF ARCHER AND CLAY COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WINDTHORST AND SHANNON.

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

LAT...LON 3369 9842 3369 9841 3353 9817 3351 9817
      3347 9822 3347 9842 3340 9842 3340 9862
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 215DEG 34KT 3328 9858