Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
336 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HIGH WINDS AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FA. BLOWING DUST...AND WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE THE
OTHER HAZARDS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF
BLOWING DUST AND THE IMPACT IS A LITTLE HARD TO DETERMINE
AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME AREAS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY PROBLEMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TRACKING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.
AN AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OK/NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING VERY STRONG NORTHERN
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH. HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE START TIME FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR SUSTAINED 40
MPH WINDS UNTIL ~00Z THURSDAY. WILL EXPAND HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND CANCEL THE SOUTHERN PART.

BY THIS EVENING...ALL COUNTIES IN THE FA WILL BE INCLUDED IN A
"HIGH END" WIND ADVISORY AND/OR A HIGH WIND WARNING.

SOME LIGHT SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ARRIVE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
SOUTH.

GOING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...COLDER AIR SHOULD
BE THE MAIN THEME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION
ON CHRISTMAS DAY PER THE EC. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVE A NOD
TO AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OF A HIGH
IMPACT WINTER STORM CHRISTMAS INTO WEDNESDAY.  A FEW OF THE
MEMBERS HOWEVER...SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
CHRISTMAS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  28  46  25 /  10  10   0   0
HOBART OK         66  25  50  24 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  29  51  23 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           61  21  46  20 /  30  40   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  29  44  23 /  10  40   0   0
DURANT OK         73  35  54  26 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ008-013-019-020-026-030>032-042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HIGH WIND WATCH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>012-014>018-021-
     022.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ023>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ033-034-036>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ083>090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY DEC 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE EXTREME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS AND A FIRE WEAHTER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING DUST
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WETERN NORTH TEXAS. HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. A HIGH
WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND STRONG NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
5 AM WEDNESDAY.