Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Spokane, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
227 PM PDT Fri Jul 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect strong thunderstorms to continue this afternoon and into
the evening. Some of the storms could be severe and produce large
hail...damaging winds...and very heavy rains. By Saturday the
weather will dry out for most locations through the weekend.
Another upper level low will cross the region Sunday night through
Tuesday and result in a chance of showers and possible
thunderstorms locations north of highway 2. The low will exit by
Tuesday afternoon with dry and seasonably warm weather to follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...The closed low will continue to track
north and east out of region this evening. This will keep showers
and thunderstorms going through 2300 north and east of a line from
the north Cascades south the about St Maries ID. These storms will
most likely be strong with heavy rain...gusty outflows winds and
moderate to large hail. After midnight the low pressure system
responsible for these storms will move into BC. Some lingering
showers will be possible through the night but are expected to be light.

Beginning Saturday the region will come under the influence of a
much deep upper level low. The models are coming into agreement on
tracking this system from just off the BC coast on Saturday and
ejecting it east into central Montana by Tuesday.

Saturday through Sunday, much drier air will move into the region
and will result in dry conditions with temperatures near seasonal
normals.

Sunday night through Tuesday the low will move into the region.
This low will tap into both some Pacific moisture and monsoon
moisture moving up from the south. With increased mid and upper
level moisture the atmosphere will destabilize and support showers
and thunderstorms. This convection should be focused mainly along
the higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle and northeast mountains.

General troughiness or even split flow will follow Wednesday
through Friday. A few mountain showers or even a thunderstorm or
two may be possible, but confidence is not high at this time. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The lull in the convection will be short lived as the
thunderstorm threat increases after 20z. A vigorous upper level
disturbance will push into the region from the southwest and ignite
convection...starting in the KEAT...KMWH and KLWS area and pushing
northeast through the afternoon. There is the potential for strong
to severe storms with gusty winds...heavy rain and hail for a 1-2 hr
period at each of the TAF sites. The convection will decrease after
00z and linger in the northern and Panhandle mountains through
03z. Conditions will stabilize in the wake of the storms...leaving
VFR conditions and lighter winds through the night. /rfox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        58  80  58  84  57  73 /  60   0   0   0  20  10
Coeur d'Alene  57  78  54  83  57  72 /  80   0   0   0  20  10
Pullman        53  80  51  82  54  74 /  60   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       63  90  62  91  63  83 /  60   0   0  10  20  10
Colville       57  82  54  86  56  76 /  80  10   0  10  20  20
Sandpoint      56  77  50  83  54  70 /  80  10   0  10  30  20
Kellogg        57  78  54  85  55  70 /  80  10   0  10  30  20
Moses Lake     59  84  57  86  57  80 /  50   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      62  85  61  83  60  80 /  60   0   0  10  10  10
Omak           58  83  56  84  57  77 /  70   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-
     Northern Panhandle.

     SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for
     Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho
     Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-
     Northern Panhandle.

WA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau.

     SEVERE THUNDERStorm Watch until 8 PM PDT this evening for East
     Slopes Northern Cascades-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
     Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Wenatchee Area.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
549 AM PDT FRI JUL 20 2012

IDZ001>004-026-027-WAZ031>038-041>044-211300-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-SPOKANE AREA-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE AREA-
EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
549 AM PDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY LEADING
TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REGION-WIDE. SOME STORMS
BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
240 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOSES LAKE              47.12N 119.29W
07/20/2012                   GRANT              WA   PUBLIC

            FLOODING WAS REPORTED AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

0135 PM     HAIL             3 W MOSES LAKE          47.12N 119.35W
07/20/2012  E1.75 INCH       GRANT              WA   PUBLIC

&&

RFLIEHMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
307 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW KELLOGG           47.54N 116.17W
07/20/2012                   SHOSHONE           ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF TORN OFF OUTBUILDING. 1 INCH HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

RFLIEHMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
320 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRICHARD                47.65N 115.97W
07/20/2012                   SHOSHONE           ID   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PRICHARD TAVERN REPORTED SMALL UTILITY TRAILER BLOWN
            ABOUT 150 FEET. MANY TREE LIMBS DOWN. PEA SIZE HAIL
            REPORTED.

&&

RFLIEHMA

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