Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
446 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MAKING SE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SRN CT HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
STORMS...WHILE NMRS-LINES OF STORMS CONT FROM NYC THRU THE PA/NJ
BORDER REGION. FEEL THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR TS WILL BE THRU ABOUT 01Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING. AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
WKNS...LINGERING SHOWERS ARE PSBL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH DCRSG POPS LATE. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRYING LATE
TONIGHT WITH INCRSG NE FLOW...SO DO NOT THINK THERE IS A BIG THREAT
FOR FOG. WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. HEAT ADVISORY
WILL RUN TIL 6PM AS SCHEDULED WHEN IT WILL HAVE COOLED OFF
SUFFICIENTLY DUE TO TS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONT TO INDICATE A WAVE FORMING ON THE COLD FRONT AS
IT STALLS TO OUR S OVER THE DELMARVA THU-THU NIGHT. PRECIP DVLPS
WELL TO OUR W DURING THE DAY THU. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N PROVIDING
DRY/STABLE ERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY DRY PERHAPS
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO GREATEST
POPS LATE ACROSS NRN NJ. TEMPS THU COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IF CLEARING DOES NOT TAKE PLACE TO THE DEGREE WHICH MODELS SUGGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST THIS PERIOD AS 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OVERALL...LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE SE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT
ALLOWING THE SFC LOW PRES WAVE TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHC POPS FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS/PRECIP AMTS OVER NRN NJ
DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN THE
FCST GIVEN RAIN POTENTIAL AND NE FLOW...BUT ALREADY LOWERED MAX
TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND A SLOW WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BY MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WRN
ATLANTIC WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR SOME SHRA/TS. A SHORT-LIVED SFC RIDGE
MOVES IN FOR TUE-WED WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT.

AT 20Z...TSTMS WERE CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. THREATS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
GUSTY WINDS AND CONVECTIVE LLWS...SHOULD CONTINUE THERE UNTIL
ABOUT 23Z AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD KISP...WITH
MAIN IMPACTS THERE FROM 21Z-24Z. ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 01Z.

MAINLY VFR LATER THIS EVENING AFTER CONVECTION WEAKENS AND PASSES
TO THE SOUTH...WITH LIGHT N FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER COLD FROPA.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT OUTLYING TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MAIN TSTM IMPACTS TIL 23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MAIN TSTM IMPACTS TIL 23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAIN TSTM IMPACTS TIL 23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MAIN TSTM IMPACTS TIL 23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A TSTM POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MAIN TSTM IMPACTS TIL 00Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU AFTERNOON-EVENING...VFR. ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
.LATE THU NIGHT-SAT MORNING...SCAT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE...BEST CHANCE AT SOUTHERN/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON...CHANCE OF TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NMRS TS CONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THRU MIDNIGHT AT LEAST ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. SW WINDS WILL BECOME VRBL AS TS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVE OFFSHORE. AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THRU WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE THE SECOND HALF OF
TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT ESE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ERLY FLOW OF
10-15KT MAY DVLP OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SOME.

WITH NE FLOW AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FRI...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS OVER
6FT THIS PERIOD BUT CAPPED SEAS BARELY AT 5FT FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY. WINDS NEAR 20KT MAY BE PSBL ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO 15KT OR
LESS. RETURN SRLY FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN PICKS UP 10-15KT
OUT OF THE SW BY MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL SCA SEAS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WILL DROP TO 4FT OR LESS SATURDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AS PWATS CONT AROUND 2 INCHES AND STEERING FLOW NEARLY
ALIGNS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BASIN AVERAGE QPF OF AROUND 1/2 TO
1 INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEWARK HAS BROKEN THEIR RECORD HIGH TODAY WITH A MAX OF 103 DEGREES SO
FAR. LA GUARDIA ARPT HAS HIT 100 DEGREES...WHICH TIES THEIR RECORD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
CLIMATE...

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