Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
807 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...PRECEDED BY A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HEAT AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FIRE ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT EXITS LATE IN THE
DAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SEASONAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW CT AND JUST TO THE NW OF ORANGE
COUNTY SHOULD SURVIVE WITH THE GIVEN SBCAPES. WEAK FORCING FROM A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPARENTLY IS HELPING THESE STORMS TO DEVELOP. AN
UPPER JET STREAK PASSES TO THE NE LATER TONIGHT WITH THE CWA IN
AN UNFAVORABLE QUADRANT FOR DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING. HIGH CAPE VALUES IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION WILL SUSTAIN A
CHANCE OF AT LEAST SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA WITHIN REGION OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING. BY
MIDNIGHT...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE ENOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

A VERY MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP ACROSS NYC METRO AND
PORTIONS OF NE NJ THROUGH 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND NW FLOW WILL SEND A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN THE CASE OF COASTAL
LOCATIONS...IT ACTUALLY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WED.

MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY AT ODDS WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CUTOFF LOW
THAT FORMS OFF THE COAST OF THE NOVA SCOTIA THU INTO THU NIGHT.
THE NAM IS A BIT DEEPER...SENDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IN EITHER CASE...SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE AIR MASS WILL
ALSO BE NOTICEABLY DRIER WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS PRODUCES HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO IF
NOT LOWER THAN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE. THUS...THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR NYC HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THU.

A DEEP-LAYERED NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THU AND THU
NIGHT. LOW THU NIGHT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS .

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT SO DRY WEATHER FRI. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL HIGH TEMPS. THE NAM IS THE COLDEST OF THE MAJOR SOLNS.
SUPPRESSION OF HEIGHTS S OF THE MARITIMES SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
FACTOR. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO THE WARMER 00Z ECMWF
AND 12Z GFS DATA DUE TO BETTER GLOBAL MODELING.

NAM CONTINUES AS AN OUTLIER FOR SAT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS HOT WITH RAW
DATA YIELDING HIGHS AROUND 100 NERN NJ. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
WARMER GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS. ALL MODELS BRING CONVECTION
INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTN AND EVE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT. IF THE
ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SVR CHANCES.

THE FRONT LAGS BEHIND AND DOESN/T PASS TIL SUN AFTN/EVE. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS AND BOOSTED TEMPS
TOWARDS THE HIGH END GFS ENSEMBLE DATA WITH RESIDUAL LLVL HOT AIR
TRAPPED IN THE REGION.

IT APPEARS THINGS SETTLE DOWN MON AND BEYOND AS THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED S OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL
TEMPS...AND THE FCST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISO TSRA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF
IMPACT...HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTIONING IN NYC TERMINALS.

EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED TSRA OVER THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY APPRAOCH THE CITY
TERMINALS. THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THESE STORMS TO
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AS THEY APPROACH THE NYC TERMINALS.

VFR AND GUSTY WNW WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY BE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE...BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY TOUCH 310
DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY 1 TO 2
FT THE NEXT 36 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT VALUES AT BUOYS AND THOSE
UPSTREAM.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS FRI-TUE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SVR...SAT AFTN AND NGT.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS SUN UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING WOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE WILL BE LOWER BY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF A FOOT FROM LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
516 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENWICH               41.03N  73.63W
07/04/2012                   FAIRFIELD          CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF MERRITT PARKWAY
            BETWEEN EXITS 31 AND 32

&&

LN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
524 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH STAMFORD          41.14N  73.54W
07/04/2012                   FAIRFIELD          CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON SHIPPAN AVE... SCOFIELDTOWN
            ROAD AND ROCKRIMMON ROAD

&&

LN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
843 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

CTZ005-009-NYZ068-070-050130-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-PUTNAM-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
843 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD...PUTNAM AND WESTCHESTER
COUNTIES...

AT 840 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FISHKILL...OR NEAR BEACON...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE CARMEL BY 855 PM.
  NEAR MAHOPAC BY 900 PM.
  NEAR BREWSTER BY 905 PM.
  NEAR RIDGEFIELD BY 925 PM.
  NEAR GEORGETOWN BY 930 PM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4119 7313 4115 7317 4116 7320 4111 7326
      4112 7330 4110 7334 4107 7335 4106 7338
      4105 7345 4144 7398 4149 7393 4152 7370

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
917 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

CTZ005-006-009-010-NYZ068-050215-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-PUTNAM-SOUTHERN
FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
917 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD...PUTNAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...

AT 915 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DANBURY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4157 7346 4150 7343 4152 7339 4149 7337
      4148 7333 4150 7332 4127 7286 4126 7290
      4128 7292 4125 7293 4115 7322 4145 7368
      4153 7356 4153 7354 4155 7353 4158 7349

LN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NYZ078-080-177-179-050315-
NORTHERN NASSAU-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK-
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTIES...

AT 1026 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OYSTER BAY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR WOODBURY BY 1035 PM.
  NEAR PLAINVIEW BY 1040 PM.
  NEAR MELVILLE BY 1045 PM.
  NEAR DEER PARK BY 1050 PM.
  NEAR LINDENHURST BY 1055 PM.
  NEAR BABYLON BY 1100 PM.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4062 7346 4064 7344 4066 7349 4084 7365
      4087 7366 4092 7357 4090 7349 4094 7350
      4094 7345 4070 7316 4070 7324 4065 7338
      4067 7324 4064 7321 4066 7321 4067 7318
      4065 7310 4062 7323 4063 7335 4060 7343

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NYZ081-050300-
SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK-
1033 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...

AT 1031 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GARDNER'S ISLAND...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4104 7188 4093 7220 4103 7233 4105 7231
      4101 7228 4102 7225 4105 7226 4104 7220
      4107 7216 4105 7212 4100 7209 4103 7206
      4102 7203 4106 7199 4105 7197 4108 7196
      4109 7190 4107 7185

NV