Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATED WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS NEXT
FEW HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS...MOSTLY SEEM ON TRACK
JUST INCREASED BY A DEGREE FOR COASTAL NJ AND LONG ISLAND. BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...ADJUSTED POPS UP
TOWARDS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INCREASED THEM TOWARDS THE
CITY AND LONG ISLAND. STILL LOOKING AT ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES AS OF 17Z AT LEAST 500 J/KG FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AS WELL. STILL KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SE TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY...WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS EAST OF CAPE
COD WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO THE CLOSED LOW
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRESENT A TSTM THREAT...BEST CHANCE
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. SPC AND NSSL MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP A LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA AHEAD OF APPROACHING CLOSED LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK IT TOWARDS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING...BUT SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED. MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRY-LOW
LEVELS AND DEVELOPING 30-35 KT WESTERLY LLJ.

A GUSTY SW FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH RATHER DEEP
MIXING...PARTICULARLY COAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WILL LEAN
TOWARDS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN SECTIONS...MAV/MET BLEND
FOR NW SECTIONS. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S COAST...MID 70S
INTERIOR NW ZONES WITH EARLIER AND MORE CLOUD COVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY SINKS SE OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SINKING THROUGH THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS A RESULT. AN
ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH AND COLD POOL INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH CLOUD COVER AND
ONLY WEAK CAA.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BECOMING STACKED SURFACE/ALOFT AND
THEN ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTING NE OF CAPE COD WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HEART OF COLD POOL
INSTABILITY AND CLOSED LOW VORTICITY ALOFT. AXIS OF ACTIVITY WILL
DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK OF UPPER LOW. MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL DUE TO LOW WET-BULB ZEROES AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND CAA ON DEVELOPING GUSTY N/NE
FLOW. HIGH GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH WANING LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. RESIDUAL
COVERAGE WILL BE PREDICATED BY TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FARTHER EAST CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NE FLOW ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STEEP LLVL AFTN LAPSE RATES WILL BE THE RULE THRU THIS PERIOD AS THE
H5 TROF REMAINS OVER THE NERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THRU THE
WEEK...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A RAINY WEEK...JUST PERIODS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHERE IS DOES NOT RAIN...LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER
AFTN CU CAN BE EXPECTED.

TEMPS MON A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV...AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD THE MEX/MEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.

KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR TERM...PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS AROUND 18-20Z. LEFT SOME THUNDER MENTION
IN THE FORECASTS FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER...AS MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING COSPA SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE AS DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT SUB VFR CEILINGS OR VSBYS.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 19
OR 20Z. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 13 TO 18 KTS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THEN WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET AS THEY EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CEILINGS DO DROP...POSSIBLY TO MVFR OR 2-3 KFT LATER TONIGHT. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OCCURS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR...BUT BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFT/EARLY EVE HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE LOWERED BELOW SCA LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. MAY NEED SCA FOR AT LEAST
OCEAN TOWARDS EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHER WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DEVELOPING.

NEARSHORE GUSTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS MAY APPROACH 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SHORT DURATION EVENT
THAT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ANY GIVEN ZONE.

AFTER RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...NE
WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A SCA COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. THE OCEAN WATERS WOULD THEN LIKELY HAVE SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY. WITH A FAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION...THE LONG ISLAND SOUND COULD POSSIBLY REQUIRE A SCA
MONDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOLLOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH
MAINLY INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE...DUE TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND
RESTRICTED TIDAL DRAINAGE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDES AND LIKELY CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDES AS ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES PEAK AND LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...JM/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

CTZ011-012-031830-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
144 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
LONDON COUNTIES...

AT 143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLD LYME...OR NEAR OLD SAYBROOK...AND MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4130 7201 4131 7208 4129 7211 4129 7214
      4132 7219 4128 7220 4129 7224 4125 7238
      4127 7240 4127 7243 4139 7240 4138 7237
      4134 7236 4137 7228 4142 7228 4138 7198

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

CTZ009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-176>178-031900-
BRONX-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN
UNION-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN
NASSAU-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-RICHMOND (STATEN
IS.)-ROCKLAND-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN
UNION-
211 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
BERGEN...BRONX...ESSEX...HUDSON...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)...NORTHWESTERN NASSAU...PASSAIC...QUEENS...RICHMOND
(STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...UNION AND
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEW CITY TO BLOOMFIELD TO SOUTH PLAINFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

LAT...LON 4060 7422 4059 7446 4066 7441 4067 7447
      4091 7429 4090 7428 4100 7434 4116 7428
      4114 7423 4123 7412 4114 7351 4100 7357
      4090 7375 4084 7376 4091 7364 4078 7368
      4055 7389 4061 7405 4049 7425

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

CTZ005-NYZ068-070-031915-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-PUTNAM-
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD...PUTNAM AND WESTCHESTER
COUNTIES...

AT 226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CARMEL...OR NEAR BREWSTER...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4144 7327 4143 7326 4144 7325 4140 7318
      4139 7319 4134 7312 4122 7317 4123 7325
      4121 7326 4123 7328 4121 7331 4122 7333
      4120 7334 4127 7375 4149 7368

PW