Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS New York, NY

170 
WHUS71 KOKX 260136
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
936 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

...ROUGH CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

ANZ350-353-355-261000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.120726T1500Z-120727T1000Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
936 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO
6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
  THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-261000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.120726T1500Z-120727T0300Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
936 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN BAYS OF 
  LONG ISLAND...AND NEW YORK HARBOR.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
  THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

646 
WHUS71 KOKX 260741
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...ROUGH CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ANZ350-353-355-262100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.120726T1000Z-120727T1000Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
341 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-262100-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.120726T1500Z-120727T0300Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
341 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN BAYS OF 
  LONG ISLAND...AND NEW YORK HARBOR.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

309 
WHUS71 KOKX 262231
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
631 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT...

ANZ350-353-355-271000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T1000Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
631 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE
  FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-270300-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T0300Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
631 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN BAYS OF 
  LONG ISLAND...AND NEW YORK HARBOR.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

517 
WHUS71 KOKX 270118
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
918 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO FRIDAY...

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-270230-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T0300Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
918 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

ANZ350-270930-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T2200Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
918 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
  SEAS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
  THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ353-270930-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T1500Z/
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
918 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST SEAS
  WILL BE OVERNIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ355-270930-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T1000Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
918 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE DURING THE
  FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TOWARDS MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

936 
WHUS71 KOKX 270138
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO FRIDAY...

ANZ355-271000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T1000Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
938 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE DURING 
  THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TOWARDS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-271000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T2200Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
938 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST 
  SEAS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE 
  THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ353-271000-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T1500Z/
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
938 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...5 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST 
  SEAS WILL BE OVERNIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY 
  MORNING ON FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

105 
WHUS71 KOKX 270758
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...

ANZ355-271200-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SW.Y.0024.120727T0758Z-120727T1200Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM
EDT THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE
  ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

* TIMING...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
  SUBSIDING UNDER 5 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT SEAS OF 5 FT
OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS
CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS
NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS
THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED. REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN
EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

ANZ350-271600-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SW.Y.0024.120727T0758Z-120727T2200Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATION...COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK
  POINT NY OUT 20 NM.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE
  SUBSIDING UNDER 5 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT SEAS OF 5 FT
OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS
CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS
NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS
THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED. REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN
EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

ANZ353-271600-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-120727T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SW.Y.0024.120727T0758Z-120727T1600Z/
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
EDT TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY. 

* LOCATION...FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET.

* TIMING...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
  SUBSIDING UNDER 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MEANS THAT SEAS OF 5 FT
OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID SHOALING AREAS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS
CAN SHARPEN INTO LARGE BREAKING WAVES IN SHOALING AREAS. IT IS
NOT UNUSUAL FOR WAVES TO BREAK MUCH FARTHER FROM SHOALING AREAS
THAN IS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED. REMEMBER...BREAKING WAVES CAN
EASILY CAPSIZE EVEN LARGER VESSELS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
201 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN JUST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND A DIMINISHING NW FLOW. LOCAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
IS FORECAST LATE THIS AFT FOR NYC METRO.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST BY 6Z...SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST THEN AS A RESULT. ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
LOOKING AT ITS 305-310 ISENTROPIC SURFACES WITH ONLY 70-80
PERCENT RH SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE AREAL EXTENT OF ITS
PRECIPITATION IS OVER DONE. THE NAM/GFS/GEFS/CMC-REGIONAL KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE SREF BRINGS IN
PRECIPITATION TO FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE. FOR NOW LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE SREF AS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. ALL MODELS HAVE ANY
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO OUR WEST THROUGH 12Z...SO WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION THE MAIN FORCING HAVE GONE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.

THE GFS IS THE DEEPEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW EMERGING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE SREF.
THE OTHER MODELS WOULD HAVE THE MAIN LOW BACK OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY AT 00Z FRIDAY...AND 2-3 MB WEAKER. ADOPTED
THIS CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF/CMC REGIONAL AND GLOBAL FOR
THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

BASED ON THIS BLEND...EXPECT ISENTROPIC/WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES
TO BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN CONVECTION TO TAKE OVER
IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE GONE WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING AND
SHRA/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON BLEND OF SREF/NAM/MET/MAV
POPS HAVE ONLY GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW - HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE CWA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE 1500-3000 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH 500-1500 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 (DO NOT
BUY INTO GFS HAVING HIGHER VALUES THAT FAR EAST DUE TO THE
OVERLY PROGRESSIVE/STRONG NATURE OF ITS SOLUTION). MITIGATING
THE LOWER CAPE OVER EASTERN 1/3 IS THAT THE CORE OF A 40-50 KT 950
HPA JET IS FORECAST INTO THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 85+ KT UPPER JET...BE
UNDER A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND 35-40 KT OF 0-6KM OF SHEAR.
BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-45 SUPPORT THE IDEA OF SUPERCELLS
AND MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER WITH
HELICITY VALUES FORECAST GENERALLY ABOVE 200 M2/S2 AND 0-1KM
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX OF 2 TO 3...AND 0-3KM VORTICITY GENERATION
PARAMETER VALUES OF 0.25 TO 0.5 THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR NOW IS THAT
THE LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVEL IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 1000 TO JUST
UNDER 1500 METERS - WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THAT FOUND TO BE
NEEDED FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM SW CT- NYC ON NORTHWEST...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO - WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SPC HAVING THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT - WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL. FOR HIGHS THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HAP NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND 875 HPA INLAND. FORECASTING HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT.

WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST AROUND 70...WILL HAVE HEAT INDICES
ACROSS NYC AND THE INTERIOR IN THE MID 90S AS A RESULT. HOWEVER
WITH ONLY ONE DAY OF VALUES OF 95-99 FORECAST FOR NYC...THIS DOES
NOT MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEED BACK THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NAM AND 24/12Z ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THE
AREA WILL BE WARM SECTORED THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONVECTION WILL BE ON
GOING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP OVER THE ATLANTIC. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH WEAKENING AND
SLIDING EAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SLIDE FARTHER EAST AND
SOUTH...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING AND WHERE THE
BOUNDARY WILL SET UP. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADA LOW. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST TODAY. WINDS ARE NOW NORTHWESTERLY AND
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. ONLY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SHIFTS THOUGH AND
TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HR OR TWO. WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...18-23Z...COULD VARY BY 20-30 DEGREES IN EITHER
DIRECTION AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE ONLY WARRANTS PROB30 GROUPS AT
KJFK/KSWF/KEWR.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THIS EVENING

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THIS EVENING AND FOR
POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 20-22Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MONDAY...

.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS/TSTMS. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COUPLED WITH A 40-50 KT
950 HPA JET PASSING OVER EASTERN WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY BRING SCA GUSTS TO AT LEAST COASTAL OCEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW LEVEL JET GOES SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST THEN FORECAST...THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS COULD BE
REALIZED OVER ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH A RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING FRIDAY AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATER FRIDAY. LITTLE MIXING WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WATERS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO
FRIDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND SEAS FROM
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RESULT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. WITH A FORECAST STORM
MOTION OF AROUND 20 KT...MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS. FOR NOW FORECASTING BASIN
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ INCHES POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY EVENING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION
WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 2 INCHES. BASIN AVERAGES WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER INCH.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TOTALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
233 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-261845-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
233 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-261845-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
233 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 KT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.