High Surf Advisory 1, NWS New York, NY

622 
WHUS41 KOKX 230044
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
844 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...LARGE WAVES EXPECTED AT NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SOUND LATE
TONIGHT...

NYZ179-230900-
/O.EXA.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.120423T0600Z-120423T2200Z/
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
844 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC BEACHES OF NASSAU COUNTY.

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVES WILL INCREASE IN THE SURF ZONE TONIGHT...
  REACHING THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL BY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASHOVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

NYZ080-081-230900-
/O.CON.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.120423T0600Z-120423T2200Z/
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
844 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SUFFOLK COUNTY.

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVES WILL INCREASE IN THE SURF ZONE TONIGHT...
  REACHING THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL BY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASHOVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

CTZ009-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-230600-
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.S.0005.120423T0400Z-120423T0600Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
844 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...THE COAST OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...TIDAL DEPARTURES AROUND ONE AND A HALF FEET
  ABOVE NORMAL WILL BRING TIDAL LEVELS TO NEAR MINOR FLOODING
  BENCHMARKS.

* TIMING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM EDT MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

$$

706 
WHUS41 KOKX 230602
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
202 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012

...LARGE WAVES EXPECTED AT NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH
TODAY...

CTZ009-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-230715-
/O.EXP.KOKX.CF.S.0005.000000T0000Z-120423T0600Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
202 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012

HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED. AS SUCH...NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ080-081-179-231400-
/O.CON.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120423T2200Z/
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
202 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC BEACHES OF NASSAU COUNTY.

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVES WILL REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASHOVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

247 
WHUS41 KOKX 230755
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012

...LARGE WAVES EXPECTED AT NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES
THROUGH TODAY...

NYZ080-081-179-231600-
/O.CON.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120423T2200Z/
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
355 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC BEACHES OF NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES.

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVES WILL REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASHOVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

235 
WHUS41 KOKX 231535
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1135 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012

...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TODAY...

NYZ080-081-179-232200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120423T2200Z/
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1135 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ALONG NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
  COUNTIES.

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 5 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH OVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

963 
WHUS41 KOKX 231943
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 PM EDT MON APR 23 2012

...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG NASSAU AND
SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT...

NYZ080-081-179-241000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120424T1000Z/
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
343 PM EDT MON APR 23 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ALONG NASSAU AND SUFFOLK 
  COUNTIES. 

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 5 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH OVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

723 
WHUS41 KOKX 240738
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
338 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY...

NYZ080-179-240845-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120424T1000Z/
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
338 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY.

THE HIGHEST WAVES HAVE OCCURED AT THE AREA BEACHES ACROSS NASSAU
AND WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

$$

NYZ081-241600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120424T2200Z/
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
338 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ALONG EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY.

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET THIS
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH OVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

855 
WHUS41 KOKX 241134
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
734 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES TODAY...

NYZ081-242015-
/O.CON.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120424T2200Z/
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
734 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ALONG EASTERN SUFFOLK 
  COUNTY.

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET 
  THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH OVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

925 
WHUS41 KOKX 241403
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES TODAY...

NYZ081-242200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120424T2200Z/
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1003 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ALONG EASTERN SUFFOLK 
  COUNTY. 

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET 
  THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH OVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

563 
WHUS41 KOKX 241917
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
317 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES TODAY...

NYZ081-242200-
/O.CON.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120424T2200Z/
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
317 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ALONG EASTERN SUFFOLK 
  COUNTY. 

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FT.

* TIMING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET 
  THIS EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH OVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

622 
WHUS41 KOKX 242155
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
555 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST ALONG EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY
OCEAN BEACHES...

NYZ081-250200-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120425T0200Z/
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
555 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES ALONG EASTERN SUFFOLK 
  COUNTY. 

* WAVES AND SURF...WAVES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FT.

* TIMING...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH OVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

&&

$$

050 
WHUS41 KOKX 250203
CFWOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

NYZ081-250315-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SU.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120425T0200Z/
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1003 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 6 FT IN THE SURF ZONE FOR
TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE ON A SLOWLY LOWERING TREND.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
235 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AND APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT TO NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO
QUEBEC AS IT WEAKENS INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BEFORE HEADING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WAS RACING SE AND
CATCHING UP WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER SYSTEMS WILL SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN AND DRAW NORTHWARD AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SE NC.

LIGHT RAIN...WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE TRI-STATE. LATEST SREF/NAM/HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A
FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO ADJUSTED POPS TODAY ACCORDINGLY.
WILL SEE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BEST THREAT OVER EASTERN ZONES. IT APPEARS
THAT WIDESPREAD MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC AND Q-G FORCING BEGIN TO
REACH THE REGION.

GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL...DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/LAV/MET
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CLOSED STACKED LOW TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD IN TIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL. PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE GETS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AND
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS TO THE NW OF THE AREA...BUT DEEP
SOUTHERLY FETCH AND THETA ADVECTION WILL ENSURE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF STEERING THE SFC LOW ACROSS
NJ AND TO OUR WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND NAM REMAINS ONE
OF THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE SFC LOW INITIALLY. EAST
WINDS INCREASE...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY WIND
RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. MY BEST GUESS IS FOR A FEW REPORTS
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CT. HOWEVER...H8 JET STRENGTH NOT QUITE WHAT I WOULD
WANT IT TO BE FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS VERIFYING HERE...AND
THAT IS ACCORDING TO STRONGER NAM. GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A MUCH
WEAKER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST.

LATEST 6Z NAM DOES FORECAST A 75 KT H8 JET OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THESE EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST PRECIPITATION RUN
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 00Z/06Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY LOWER
AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH. AS MENTIONED...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SO FLOOD WATCH
TIMING LOOKS GOOD. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

TEMPS CLOSE TO MOS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SMALLER DIURNAL
DIFFERENCES NOTED DUE TO CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DEEP...ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USER A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS TO THE REGION...HOWEVER...WITH WITH SEVERAL
STRONG SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY GET WRAPPED INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. WITH
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND TO KEEP FORECAST CONTINUITY HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BACK TO CHANCE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE
NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...PASS JUST WEST OF
NEW YORK CITY EARLY MON MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL PA/NY
LATER MON.

MODERATE RAIN WITH IFR VSBY WAS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND/CT...IMPACTING KISP/KGON THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. CIGS QUICKLY
LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS CENTRAL NJ RIGHT AFTER 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...SO
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BRING THESE LOWER CONDS IN
SOONER THAN FCST IN INITIAL 18Z TAF.

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE DAY...
WITH INCREASING E-NW WINDS. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG E-NE WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT...FROM
ABOUT 02Z-07Z NYC METRO TERMINALS...BUT LASTING LONGER INTO THE
NIGHT TO THE EAST WHERE THE CORE OF A 60-KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PASS MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

WARM FROPA EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES JUST W OF
NYC...BRINGING AN END TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS...BUT NOT
IFR CONDITIONS. UNUSUAL COLD FROPA FROM THE SW SHOULD FOLLOW
DURING MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY S WINDS AND EVENTUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...S WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT.
CONDS MVFR AT KSWF AND VFR ELSEWHERE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. GUSTY SW WINDS.
.WED...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
.WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.
.FRI...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS REFLECTING THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.
EASTERLY GALES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THESE WINDS THEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AS
THE LOW NEARS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD APPROACH GALE
FORCE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER THE TIME BETWEEN GALE
FORCE WINDS TONIGHT AND LATE MONDAY IS TOO GREAT TO EXTEND THE GALE
WARNING AT THIS TIME.

SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ROUGH CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG SCA CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALES AT TIMES ON THE
OCEAN WATERS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA.

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW THURSDAY NIGHT MAY AGAIN COME
UP TO SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3.5 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEMS. EVEN 4 INCH AMOUNTS
KEEP RIVER LEVELS BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES.

HOWEVER...FLASHY SMALL STREAMS COULD FLOOD. SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. HARD DRY GROUND DUE TO LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL...AND STORM DRAINS THAT HAVE NOT YET BEEN
CLEARED OF WINTER DEBRIS...MAY ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO RUNOFF.

THIS RAIN WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE REGION AROUND A NEW MOON IN THE LUNAR CYCLE...AND STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS COULD BE REACHED ON WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST COASTAL FLOODING GUIDANCE
INDICATES TIDE LEVELS FALL SHORT. MY FEELING IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE
IS UNDERDONE. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NEEDED TO ISSUE
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

BECAUSE THE HIGH TIDE FOR NY HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND/NYC OCCURS THIS EVENING...THE WINDS LIKELY WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH BY THEN TO ACHIEVE THE AROUND 1.5 FT DEPARTURES
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE...THE WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH...AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP TIDAL
DEPARTURES UP IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...WHILE ALLOWING TIDAL PILING
TO DISSIPATE IN THE SOUND AND HARBOR. AS A RESULT...CURRENTLY ONLY
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...IF ANY...IN THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS OF NYC/NASSAU COUNTY ON MONDAY MORNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES
OF 2-2.5 ARE NEEDED TO REACH COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.

HIGH SURF IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BEACHES TONIGHT AS SEAS BECOME QUITE
ROUGH AND SWELLS INCREASE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
     176>179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072-074-075-230900-
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
430 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>070-230900-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
430 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-230900-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
430 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ009>012-NYZ071-073-078-079-176-177-230900-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
430 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

STRONG WINDS...JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ080-081-178-179-230900-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
430 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

STRONG WINDS...MAINLY JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT. HIGH SURF IS POSSIBLE AT THE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.