Freezing Rain Advisory 5, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH...THEN EAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS
INCREASE...AND TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I BELIEVE COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
OCCUR...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR DRAINING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT HANDLE THIS WELL...ESPECIALLY GFS.
AS SUCH...I UNDERCUT MOS BY A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH SUB FREEZING
INLAND AND 30S TO NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.

EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION SHOULD LEAD TO THE
FORMATION OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT. OF COURSE IF
TEMPS DO INDEED HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...THIS WILL
BECOME PROBLEMATIC. FOR NOW...I HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY IN NJ...ORANGE AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES IN NEW YORK...AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SRN CT
BEGINNING AT 09Z. EAST/SE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN
COMBO WITH LIFT OVER THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT.

A TRACE TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.
SOME SNOW OR SLEET COULD MIX IN INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 700-800 HPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH AS A WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG THIS FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY...WITH NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY GOES
THROUGH 16Z. THEREAFTER...RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALL LOCATIONS.
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT PER GFS...AND DO NOT EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF UNTIL
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPS DURING THE DAY RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO
AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. 30S AND 40S EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES DEPARTS MONDAY MORNING...AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. A WEAK TROUGH WILL HOVER OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD...TOPPING
OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRES
OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS TRACK NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE THE PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK...BUT A CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE
SOMEWHERE TOWARDS WESTERN NY/PA MONDAY EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OVER THE DELMARVA AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SECONDARY
LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE ANCHORED NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR DAMMING DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/12Z ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
SEVERAL OF THE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS...BUT A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. WILL NOT FACTOR
IN THE 12Z NAM...AS IT IS AN OUTLIER...TRACKING FASTER AND MORE EAST
THAN THE BLEND. H8 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 8C...KEEPING PRECIP ALL
RAIN...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF LONG ISLAND...THEN PASSES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIP. ENOUGH COLD
AIR MAY BE ABLE TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING...BUT THINK PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE
THE COLD AIR MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. PRIMARY LOW SHOULD
STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...BUT MODELS INDICATING YET
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA THURSDAY NIGHT...
TRACKING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...PRECIP SHOULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TOO SOON TO CARRY
LIKELY POPS...AS THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE...SO WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH SLOW
TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTION IS
UNCERTAIN EARLY ON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...BUT SHOULD THEN BECOME EASTERLY THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND TIGHTENS UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z- 01Z.

HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER AND THICKEN INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN...BUT KSWF LIKELY TO SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS
SNOW/SLEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE DAMMING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NW OF NYC INDUCES A NE FLOW OF COLDER AIR FROM THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING AS RAIN CONTINUES AND LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN UP...WITH E WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT AT THE NYC METRO AND
COASTAL SITES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE...MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER WITH PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KHPN WHICH COULD
SEE PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GUSTY E-SE WINDS POSSIBLE...
SHIFTING W ON TUE.

.WED...VFR. GUSTY NW FLOW.

.THU...VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AT LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND CT TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL EARLY TONIGHT. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT FROM THE EAST. THESE
WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG SUNDAY...BUT LIGHTEN QUICKER OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS AS THE FRONT NEARS AND LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT.

SCA UP FOR SUNDAY ANZ355-335. THEN WINDS DIMINISH. FOR THE EASTERN
WATERS...SCA EXTENDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD ABATE...WITH ONLY LINGERING SEAS TO
CONTEND WITH ACROSS ANZ350.

FOLLOWED WAVE WATCH CLOSELY.

SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS ON
MONDAY...THEN AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS...WINDS/SEAS LIKELY TO
BUILD BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH PASSAGE
OF LOW ON TUESDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN. SCA/GALES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/4-1/2 INCH OF QPF IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH QPF WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE DECREASING OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS WE
MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE NEW MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON THURSDAY.

AS SUCH...DEPARTURES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HIGHER OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
DAILY TIDES.

LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OF A DEPARTURE WILL OCCUR FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR
CSTL FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.

AT THIS TIME...I DO FEEL WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND LOCATIONS COULD
COME CLOSE...POSSIBLY IN NEED OF A CSTL FLOOD STATEMENT. WILL ALLOW
THE LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD
MINOR OVER THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.

I DO NOT FORESEE ANY TIDAL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE NY HARBOR.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ005.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ075-
     178-179.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ330-340-350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-
     355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
810 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

CTZ005-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-161315-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
810 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE...AS WELL AS UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-161315-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
810 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ006>012-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-161315-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
810 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

MALOIT