Fire Weather Watch 3, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG IT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...THEN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH AS CLOSED
UPPER LOW DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY TOWARD SE CANADA. AT THE
SFC...FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND TRACKS NEARBY
TOWARD SUNRISE.

LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

WINDS ABATE THIS EVENING RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPS WILL COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS MUCH DUE TO THE CLOUDS/INSOLATION.

AS SUCH...DO NOT FORESEE ANY ISSUES WITH REGARD TO FROST TONIGHT.
PATCHY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN
LONG ISLAND POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING HIGHEST EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. AS
THIS FRONT TRAVERSES SOUTH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...WITH DRY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTH ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED THREAT OF BRUSH FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.

AS FOR TEMPS...ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. THUS THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN
FACT...TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S EXPECTED PER MOS.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL MIXED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NW WINDS PERSIST
DUE TO ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE A COOLER
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...THE WINDS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FROST DEVELOPMENT...UNLESS WINDS DIMINISH MORE THAN FORECAST. STAY
TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...SUPPRESSING LOW PRES OVER
THE GULF COAST FROM TRACKING TOO FAR NORTH. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NYC...WHICH IS NORMAL...BUT FOR
ALL OTHER AREAS...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WHICH
IS ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN SLOWLY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 WEST OF THE CITY.

COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOKS GENERALLY DRY...BUT
WILL CARRY A "HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THAT FRONT THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE...AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
EAST COAST. DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW. A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MORE GUSTY NW FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FCST AVERAGING JUST
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN ASOS GUSTS END.
DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL WIND OF 300. NO GUSTS ON
ITWS.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL EARLY EVENING (22Z)...THEN WE SHOULD BACK
JUST TO THE LEFT OF 310.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS AVERAGING JUST RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN GUSTS END. DON'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL WIND OF 300...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE THE
MEAN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON ITWS. GUST MAY END AN HOUR EARLIER THAN
FCST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED AFTN...VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT INTO THE EVENING.
.THURSDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE
TOWARD THE W/SW...WITH A LOCAL SEA BREEZE THIS EVENING NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL.

AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WINDS TURN RIGHT BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. THE
GUSTS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE...BUT SCA CRITERIA MOST LIKELY IS REACHED BASED ON WINDS
WED AFTN AND WED NIGHT. NEARSHORE GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT WED
AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER MIXING.

HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SFC LOW PRES MAY IMPACT THE WATERS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
WINDS/WAVES CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO MEET SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS WINDS ABATE THIS EVENING AND RH VALUES INCREASE...CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE.

THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE THREAT
FOR BRUSH FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD. AS SUCH...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. FINE FUELS QUITE DRY.

CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH MIN RH 25-30 PERCENT AND N-NW WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING
TO 20-25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ079-081.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JST
MARINE...MPS/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW/MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW

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