Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
127 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AT 18Z WILL WORK
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CROSS TENNESSEE FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL PULL NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 ALONG THE ALABAMA BORDER BY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. CU LINE FORMING AT EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CAIRO
ILLINOIS DOWN THROUGH BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS LINE AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE
TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION FROM
LOW CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT PROGRESSES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
ENTER WESTERN AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND 21Z TO 22Z AND THEN
WORK EASTWARD INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA AROUND 23Z AND ONTO THE
PLATEAU BY 01Z TO 02Z. SOME UNCERTAINITY EXISTS IN TIMING SINCE
SHOWERS HAVE YET TO FORM. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ENDING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MID STATE. SUNDAY WILL
BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US UNTIL
ABOUT THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THAT PERIOD. ON MONDAY A SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS CARVING OUT THE UPPER TROUGH EVEN DEEPER
WHILE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND TO ALL OF THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. I THINK QPF AMOUNTS ON
AVERAGE WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF < 0.05 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER EASTERN AREAS/PLATEAU FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

ON THURSDAY A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL US INCLUDING THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THIS WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPS FOR THE MID STATE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE HORIZON THERE IS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE COMPUTER MODELS AT 180 HOURS THAT COULD BRING A
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID STATE AS IT PULLS EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS I STAYED CLOSE TO MOS WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS.

BOYD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  57  35  57 /  40  05   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    38  55  33  54 /  40  05  05  20
CROSSVILLE     43  55  32  53 /  50  10  05  05
COLUMBIA       46  60  35  59 /  40  05   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   46  62  35  60 /  40  10   0  10
WAVERLY        41  57  34  56 /  40  05  05  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

BOYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
510 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
510 AM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AL

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