Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
602 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE CKV IS OUT OF
THE CLEAR BUT MAY CONTINUE A VCTS THERE FOR STORMS TO THEIR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL ABOUT 01Z. WILL CONTINUE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TSRA AT
BNA THROUGH ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE GUST FRONT OUT AHEAD OF
CONVECTION IS REACHING THE TERMINAL NOW. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GUST FRONT AND WITH THE LAGGING STORMS. WILL
TIME VCTS IN AT CSV FOR AFTER 00Z.

ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...UPPER RIDGING LOOKS A
BIT STRONGER TOMORROW SO PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED CELLS OVER THE
PLATEAU FOR CSV WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE
WILL BE UNDER A WEAK ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW SO A POST-00Z FRIDAY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS POSSIBLE BUT BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

BETWEEN 08-14Z WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP...POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND AT 2218Z
STRETCHED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OVERALL THERE HAS
BEEN A GENERAL WEAKENING IN THIS ACTIVITY WITH GUSTS ALONG THE
LINE RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH AS THE GUST FRONT PASSES. A FEW
GUSTS COULD BE HIGHER IN THE STRONGER STORMS DUE TO WATER LOADING.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN TIED TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME EVIDENCE OF NORTH TO SOUTH COLD POOLING ACROSS THIS
LINE. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
LAST HALF HOUR IN THE CONVECTION FROM FAR NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY WHILE HOLDING STRONG OVER WEST TENNESSEE
AND BOOTHEEL AREA OF MISSOURI.

BOYD

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
826 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061330-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
826 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A LINE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TNZ005-052200-
STEWART-
438 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART COUNTY...

AT 437 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOVER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3667 8786 3665 8784 3664 8784 3664 8782
      3653 8768 3636 8800 3649 8806 3653 8804
      3663 8806 3668 8798

31

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
605 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TNZ023>025-052330-
DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
605 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...HOUSTON AND HUMPHREYS
COUNTIES...

AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCEWEN...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ERIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3630 8761 3619 8716 3597 8730 3598 8740
      3615 8778

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TNZ022-024-060015-
BENTON-HUMPHREYS-
615 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON AND HUMPHREYS COUNTIES...

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF VALE...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
PARIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY
FOR BENTON COUNTY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3612 8822 3620 8814 3622 8814 3619 8782
      3583 8797 3581 8797 3581 8802 3583 8803
      3585 8805 3583 8809 3584 8821 3585 8822

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
622 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TNZ008-026>028-059-062-060015-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-SUMNER-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
622 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...
RUTHERFORD...SUMNER...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 618 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KINGSTON
SPRINGS...THROUGH NASHVILLE...AND INTO THE LEBANON AREA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3594 8617 3577 8693 3613 8718 3613 8717
      3616 8717 3618 8715 3636 8641

BOYD