Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
703 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS.
H5 TROF WL DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION TDAY WITH SCT RW/TRW. BKN CU
WL DEVELOP W/CHANCE OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS AFTN-EARLY EVE AT THE
TERMINALS...MAINLY MVFR COND. TNGT...A LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH COLD FRONT. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND 06Z KCKV...09Z KBNA AND
BY 12Z KCSV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012/

DISCUSSION...FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
PLAINS. IT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY SWD TDA TO A SRN IN TO ARKLATEX
POSITION BY 7 PM TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT PLOWS INTO THE MIDSTATE LATE
TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR JUST EAST OF CSV BY NOON FRI.
WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME
TSTMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY FROM LATE AFTN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

POPS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRI AFTN AS THE FRONT PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND WILL END IN THE PLATEAU FRI EVE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE SFC RIDGE OCCUPIES THE AREA. AFTN HIGH TEMPS FROM 80 TO 85 WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THOUGHT THE AFTN MOS TEMP GUIDANCE
WAS A COUPLE DEGREES TOO LOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUG WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ALOFT.

BOTH THE ECM AND GFS BRING IN A 2ND...WEAKER...FRONT LATE MON NGT
WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE WEST ON MON AFTN AND OVER THE
AREA FOR MON NGT AND TUE. OF COURSE...THIS IS ONLY 20 PCT POPS.

THE 20 POPS ARE EXTENDED THROUGH THU AS OTHER WEAK WAVES ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
530 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLE.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
734 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

TNZ007-008-027-091300-
DAVIDSON-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-
734 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...ROBERTSON AND SUMNER
COUNTIES...

AT 724 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENBRIER...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3658 8636 3631 8677 3644 8693 3666 8672
      3666 8659 3664 8657 3666 8652 3666 8646

04