Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1240 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR CKV/CSV/BNA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP
IN THE HEAT OF DAY...MAINLY FROM 20Z-24Z. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
LIGHT SSW WINDS AND SCT CU WILL BE OBSERVED. MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW LATE
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM CONCERN AT TERMINALS.

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&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2012/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLEAR...MILD AND MUGGY ACROSS THE MID
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY'S FORECAST LOOKS A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY'S. WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY, THAT SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY, WILL
LIKELY DO THE SAME TODAY. EXPECT IT TO BE LOCATED NEAR A CKV-TO-
CSV LINE, WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS LINE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE NORTH. CAPES WILL REMAIN HIGH SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND EXPECT MODEL MOS VALUES ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW (AS THEY
WERE YESTERDAY).

HIGHS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 100 TO 104 EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AREAS. ONCE AGAIN, WE ARE
CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT BELIEVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PUSHING TO
THOSE "MAGIC" READINGS IN THE 98 TO 99 DEGREE RANGE.

STILL EXPECT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF AN MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND/OR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI BY LATE TODAY, THEN PLOW EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN OUR
MOST NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY AREA-WIDE TOMORROW. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS MAJORITY OF STORMS PUSH
INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE MAV MOS OVER WESTERN AREAS.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SCOOT EASTWARD IN THE FLOW,
ACROSS KENTUCKY, ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND, PERHAPS, A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAT THE
ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, KENTUCKY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SWING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE MID STATE
REMAINS CHOCKED FULL OF MOISTURE AND SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AND WILL GO
WITH A 50% POP AREA-WIDE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING, AND AM GOING
WITH LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.

A DRYING TREND WILL ENSUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND AROUND 90
OR IN THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH MID-WEEK AND, PERHAPS, INTO LATE WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
558 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
558 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1034 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     TULLAHOMA               35.37N 86.22W
08/01/2012  E0 MPH           COFFEE             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALL AROUND TULLAHOMA.

&&

TJOHNSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1045 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TULLAHOMA               35.37N 86.22W
08/01/2012                   COFFEE             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALL AROUND TULLAHOMA.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

TNZ058-060-094-022030-
LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MAURY-
226 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAWRENCE...LEWIS AND MAURY
COUNTIES...

AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF HOHENWALD...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAWRENCEBURG.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN LEWIS...NORTHERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAURY
COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3561 8720 3535 8727 3535 8748 3560 8745

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