Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
140 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH JUST ISSUED.
WATCH WILL RUN UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR ALL OF OHX CWA. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL BUT DAMAGING WINDS STILL POSSIBLE AS COLD CORE ALOFT
WORKS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. ALSO
A FRONT BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS
BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012/

UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF CKV ATTM...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID STATE. WILL CONTINUE VCTS AND TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AT THE AIRPORTS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...BUT LOW CIGS/VIS NOTED AT CKV WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. PRECIP TO DIMINISH BY 03Z WILL SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/

UPDATE...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COLD FRONT ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING. RADAR
ALSO INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEARING FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WITH FRONT STILL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
HAVE RAISED HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARING MEMPHIS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. AS COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUES
SPREADING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD...ADDITIONAL AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS NEARING -20C...MODERATE
CAPE...AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH HAIL THE BIGGEST THREAT AND
A LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFT 18Z. THEN...THE AXIS OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...KEEPING THE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH 06Z. SKIES TO CLEAR
THEREAFTER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER
THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE JUST EAST AND SHORTWAVE IN
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. DEEPEST MOISTURE THIS MORNING NOW WORKING
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...PRETTY MUCH NORTH OF THE SFC/LL
BOUNDARY. A FEW LATE NIGHT STORMS DID POP UP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
BUT HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT.

SHWRS/STORMS LAST TWO DAYS REALLY QUITE SCARCE BUT TODAY AND THIS
EVE SHOULD BE BIT DIFFERENT. CLOSED UPPER LOWS CURRENTLY NEARING
NORTHWEST AR EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST...CLIPPING THE CWA
TOWARD EVENING BEFORE HEADING INTO CENTRAL GA TOWARD 06Z.
ADDITIONALLY...COLD FRONT AHEAD OF LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CAPE/INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WEAK. FEW STORMS
COULD GO SEVERE TODAY PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL HOWEVER WITH
COLD POOL ALOFT.

BEHIND EXITING UPPER LOWS LATE TONIGHT...DRYING WILL COMMENCE AS
WELL AS A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
LATE FRI...THEN PASSES QUICKLY SAT NIGHT. WEAK FRONT WILL SWING
BY ON SUN...WITH MAYBE A ROUGE STORM OR TWO BUT LITTLE MORE. CWA
THEN MOVES INTO A COOLER PATTERN EARLY/MID WEEK AS UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS
REMAIN IN THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOWN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE BUT OVERALL
VERY LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. GFS LEANING TOWARD SOMETHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT LATE IN THE WEEK BUT OTHER MEDIUM RANGERS NOT FOLLOWING
SUIT. WILL LEAVE PCPN OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
408 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
408 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION WILL SET OFF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
153 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ005-006-023-025>027-059-052000-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-HOUSTON-MONTGOMERY-STEWART-WILLIAMSON-
153 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON...
HOUSTON...MONTGOMERY...STEWART AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF ERIN. THIS STORM WAS  NEARLY
STATIONARY.

SMALL HAIL...UP TO PENNY SIZED WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3626 8690 3592 8693 3644 8807 3667 8789

TB12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
214 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ028-062-052015-
RUTHERFORD-WILSON-
214 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUTHERFORD AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MURFREESBORO...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...UP TO PENNY SIZE...IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3609 8646 3607 8614 3581 8623 3581 8643

TB12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
223 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ005-023-024-052000-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-STEWART-
223 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS AND STEWART
COUNTIES...

AT 220 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MCEWEN...OR NEAR WAVERLY...MOVING NORTH AT 5
MPH.

SMALL HAIL...UP TO PENNY SIZE...IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3640 8799 3621 8755 3601 8768 3612 8788

TB12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ027-059-062-052015-
DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-WILLIAMSON-
228 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...RUTHERFORD AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 224 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPRING HILL...OR 9 MILES
SOUTH OF FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3609 8649 3607 8646 3581 8643 3569 8652
      3571 8663 3569 8665 3571 8669 3571 8680
      3572 8681 3575 8690 3615 8683

TB12

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
248 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ024-025-057-059-052030-
DICKSON-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-WILLIAMSON-
248 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...HICKMAN...HUMPHREYS AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTERVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3601 8780 3607 8756 3619 8758 3618 8757
      3620 8755 3594 8697 3573 8761

TB12