Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
304 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH MANY
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. SCATTERED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER MID TN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
NEAR SEVERE HAIL. THE SURFACE CHART SHOWED AN INSTABILITY / TROUGH
AXIS RUNNING FROM WEST KY INTO WESTERN MID TN. STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG AND RIGHT OF THIS AXIS AS A SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR...APPROACHED THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY SHIFT ENE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS
ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCAL STREET
FLOODING UNDER THE HEAVY CELLS...AND SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL COME OVER THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT SO POPS WILL TAPER DOWNWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING TSRA WILL BE EXITING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HEIGHTS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY
SHUTTING DOWN ALL BUT ISOLATED TSRA. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S PLATEAU.

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT WEST. THE ELEVATED HEIGHTS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AT
BEST. GENERALLY NOT PLANNING TO INCLUDED MENTION OF TSRA FOR
MONDAY OR TUESDAY. SOME NEW RECORDS MAY BE SET...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY.

SOME RECORD HIGHS...
BNA
MAR 17 82 1982
MAR 18 86 1908
MAR 19 86 1982
MAR 20 83 1948

CSV
MAR 17 76 1982
MAR 18 81 1982
MAR 19 80 1982
MAR 20 76 1994

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY PM INTO THURSDAY AS A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
ARRIVES AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND TSRA WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPS FURTHER THURSDAY PM INTO FRIDAY WITH SHOWERY WX. THE COLD
UPPER LOW WILL CREATE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES KEEPING CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW DRY WX BY SATURDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      58  83  57  85 /  30  20  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    57  83  57  83 /  30  20  05  05
CROSSVILLE     56  77  56  79 /  50  20  05  05
COLUMBIA       57  84  57  85 /  20  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   56  83  57  85 /  20  10  05  05
WAVERLY        58  83  58  84 /  30  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-181030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
528 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG, WITH HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH
AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MILES AN HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSE

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