Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
714 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
00Z KBNA RAOB SHOWS WEAK S/B VEERING WITH LITTLE SHEAR. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS NORTH OF I-40. FURTHER SOUTH...ATM IS MORE UNSTABLE
WITH ISO HAILERS/WIND DAMAGE EVENTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.
NO WATCH ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

ISOLATED -TSRA CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID STATE. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHETHER BNA/CSV WILL BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED...BUT WILL CONTINUE VCSH/VCTS AT BNA AND TEMPO
GROUPS FOR PRECIP AT BOTH AIRPORTS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOG LATE TONIGHT...AS ATMOSPHERE
CLEARS OUT BEHIND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTIFUL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON IFR VIS AT BNA...BUT LOOKS MORE
CERTAIN AT CSV FOR EVEN LIFR VIS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT BOTH
AIRPORTS TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
VEER TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 20Z SHOWS COLD FRONT BETWEEN PAH AND
CKV, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS PILING UP JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. VERY LITTLE PRECIP OCCURRING AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THE
MOMENT, WITH EARLIER RAIN LINGERING ON THE PLATEAU, AND CONVECTIVE
CELLS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SPC IS HOLDING THE
REGION IN A GENERAL TS AREA TODAY/TONIGHT, SO AM GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND INCLUDING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS
DURING THE EVENING, THEN AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
PROSPECT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT A PLEASANT THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS, THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MAKES A QUICK
APPEARANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCE OF ACTIVE WX
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN SUNDAY. GFS IS THE
QUICKER MODEL WITH RESPECT TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST, WITH EUROPEAN
MODEL MOVING THE MOISTURE OUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY. AT ANY RATE, TEMPS
WILL FINALLY COOL OFF SOMEWHAT FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
727 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             3 SW MOUNT PLEASANT     35.52N 87.23W
02/01/2012  E0.88 INCH       MAURY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE
            GROUND ON HWY 43S NEAR LAWRENCE COUNTY LINE

&&

TBOUCHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
732 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             4 SW NASHVILLE          36.13N 86.84W
02/01/2012  E0.88 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN BELLEVUE.

&&

TBOUCHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
739 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

TNZ027-028-059-062-020245-
DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
739 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...RUTHERFORD...
WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 737 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONGS THUNDERSTORM NEAR FOREST HILLS...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
NASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LA VERGNE BY 805 PM CST.
  SMYRNA BY 815 PM CST.
  WALTERHILL BY 830 PM CST.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3622 8611 3570 8623 3590 8719 3604 8707
      3605 8704 3608 8704 3613 8700 3620 8698

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