Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF TSRA WILL IMPACT KBNA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. LOW CEILINGS AND TSRA EXPECTED INTERMITTENTLY BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z. LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO BR...LOW CEILINGS AND
ALSO PASSING TSRA AT KCSV. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
UNTIL AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012/

UPDATE...AT 01Z QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH
OF MEMPHIS, TO JUST NORTH OF MKL AND BNA, TO NEAR LAFAYETTE (IN
MACON COUNTY). SURFACE TEMP JUMPED 8 DEGS AT BNA AS FRONT LIFTED
NORTH, BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z. THIS FRONT MAY STILL WAVER JUST A BIT
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT,
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
PRODUCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND
KICKING THE FRONT EAST OF NASHVILLE AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

MUCH OF THE MID STATE REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS, IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE
INVOF STRONGEST 850MB JET (OF 40-45KTS).

AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL MIDDLE TENNESSEE, RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF.

WILL UPDATE ZFP MAINLY TO FOCUS ON MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND
TO KEEP LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
314 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-212115-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
314 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE MAINLY TONIGHT. STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND IS
THE MAIN THREAT BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DURING THIS PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

JLM

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