Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

.UPDATE...
LINE OF TSTMS STRETCHES ACROSS SRN IL AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 45 MPH. LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE LINE WILL ENTER NW MIDDLE TN AROUND 11 AM OR SO. ONLY
WARNINGS ISSUED SO FAR ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LINE...WAY UP IN SOUTHERN IN. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WX. LINE MAY STRENGTHEN BUT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...A LARGE
DEGREE OF WARMING AND DESTABALIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED. STILL
THOUGH...COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH OR SO ON
TOP OF THE ALREADY ELEVATED GRADIENT WINDS.

STILL NO NEED FOR THE GRADIENT BASED WIND ADVISORY. CURRENT GUSTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WINDS.

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MODIFY GRIDS AND ATTEMPT TO TIME THE ARRIVAL
OF THE LINE OF TSTMS. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST BEHIND THE LINE AS WELL
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS JUST BEHIND THE
STORMS. OVERALL THOUGH...POPS TO REMAIN AT THE CATEGORICAL LEVEL.
TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
FAR NW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED INTO THE ZONE TEXT. THUS...I
WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE NUMBER OF ZONES TO GET THIS WORDING RIGHT.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL MAKE FOR TRICKY LANDING AND TAKEOFFS AS THEY
GUST FROM 30 TO 35 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AT 12Z
WERE 70KTS OVER BNA AND 65 KTS OVER CSV. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT BNA FROM 16Z TO 20Z AND FROM 19Z TO 23Z AT CSV.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY
BE PRECEDED BY LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT FROPA AT BNA AROUND 21Z AND
AROUND 00Z AT CSV. WIND SHIFT WILL BE ABRUPT FOLLOWING FROPA.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012/

DISCUSSION...

UNUSUALLY WARM MORNING ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S ON THE PLATEAU TO LOW 60S NEAR THE TN
RIVER...WHICH ARE SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO RISEN SOME 15 TO 25
DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY WITH LOWER 50S NOW SHOWING UP IN WESTERN
ZONES. THESE WARM TEMPS AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE THE
RESULT OF A STRONG WAA REGIME THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY...AND SHOWN
QUITE NICELY BY INTENSE SOUTHWESTERLY 55-65 KT LLJ ON LATEST HPX
VWP. LIFT AND MOISTURE NOW RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF MID TN PER LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY. ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS UP INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.

WITH CONTINUED STRONG WAA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE FURTHER WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
COULD EVEN APPROACH 70 NEAR THE AL BORDER. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE
ON HIGHS FOR TODAY AS THEY ARE ALREADY BEHIND THE CURVE WITH
CURRENT TEMPS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS FROM
35-40 MPH AT TIMES...BUT ATTM APPEARS THEY WILL STAY JUST UNDER
CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAVE RAISED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL ZONES. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 500
J/KG. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ZONES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST. SHOULD ANY STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY
AIR ALOFT.

SHARPLY COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND FROPA WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S AREAWIDE. RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS ON THE PLATEAU PRIOR TO PRECIP ENDING THIS EVENING...BUT
BRIEF DURATION AND TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WOULD NOT ALLOW FOR ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER ONE CHILLY BELOW NORMAL DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WARM UP BEGINS AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND WAA INCREASES. APPEARS A FEW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE MID STATE ON FRIDAY...BUT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORESEEABLE LONG RANGE...BUT 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW MAJOR
DIFFERENCES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH GFS MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS ON
TEMPS/POPS AS IT HAS GENERALLY BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. THUS HAVE
KEPT SATURDAY/SUNDAY DRY WITH NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE
PICTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

TNZ005-006-022>024-171715-
BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-STEWART-
1018 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...
MONTGOMERY AND STEWART COUNTIES...

AT 1016 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOVER...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLARKSVILLE BY 1130 AM CST.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3618 8817 3626 8809 3636 8810 3637 8801
      3644 8807 3653 8804 3666 8805 3666 8785
      3664 8784 3664 8713 3632 8743 3633 8752
      3625 8752 3616 8758 3599 8822

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1116 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

TNZ005>007-022>026-056-171815-
BENTON-CHEATHAM-DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-ROBERTSON-
STEWART-
1116 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...CHEATHAM...DICKSON...
HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...ROBERTSON AND STEWART
COUNTIES...

AT 1108 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW JOHNSONVILLE BY 1130 AM CST.
  WAVERLY BY 1145 AM CST.
  MCEWEN BY 1155 AM CST.
  CLARKSVILLE BY 1145 AM CST.
  SPRINGFIELD BY 1215 PM CST.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SHALLOW ROOTED
TREES MAY BE UPROOTED.

LAT...LON 3612 8822 3626 8809 3636 8810 3637 8801
      3640 8804 3664 8769 3665 8666 3569 8803
      3572 8804 3581 8798 3581 8802 3585 8805
      3585 8822

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1207 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

TNZ007>009-024>029-056-057-059-171900-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-MACON-PERRY-ROBERTSON-
SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
1207 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON...
HICKMAN...HUMPHREYS...MACON...PERRY...ROBERTSON...SUMNER...
TROUSDALE...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT NOON CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ADAMS...TO
CHARLOTTE...TO MCEWEN...TO 17 MILES SOUTH OF CAMDEN...MOVING EAST AT
65 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRINGFIELD BY 1220 PM CST.
  DICKSON BY 1225 PM CST.
  WHITE BLUFF BY 1230 PM CST.
  WHITE HOUSE BY 1235 PM CST.
  MILLERSVILLE BY 1240 PM CST.
  PEGRAM BY 1245 PM CST.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SHALLOW ROOTED
TREES MAY BE BLOWN OVER.

LAT...LON 3662 8583 3639 8605 3630 8627 3635 8628
      3632 8655 3617 8657 3599 8703 3605 8718
      3590 8722 3557 8801 3572 8804 3591 8793
      3595 8800 3617 8747 3621 8754 3633 8744
      3631 8730 3642 8715 3657 8713 3665 8703

ROSE