Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Nashville, TN

840 
WWUS54 KOHX 311839
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
139 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TNC003-117-119-187-311900-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-120331T1900Z/
WILLIAMSON TN-BEDFORD TN-MARSHALL TN-MAURY TN-
139 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAURY...
MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN 
PARTS OF COLUMBIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8724 3575 8723 3587 8710 3559 8645
      3526 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 312DEG 15KT 3568 8700

$$

ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
107 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR MID TN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTTES. LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH AREA OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-40...SIZE UP TO GOLF BALLS.
SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF I-40 AROUND MID AFTERNOON...
BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF'S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIES ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOW CIGS AT CSV SHOULD BE GONE BY 20Z, ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE VCTS AND CB'S AROUND BNA AND CSV DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR JUST TO
THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BY EVENING, WITH FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 WITH DRIER AIR...AND HIGHER
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER IN THE
DAY...AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ISO COVERAGE NORTH OF I-40 AND
SCATTERED SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
RAOB/MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WHEN TEMPS GET INTO THE MID-UPR 70S...SO A FEW HOURS AWAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL...MAINLY WEST
OF I-24.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
VSBY QUICKLY LOWERED TO 2 1/2 SM AT BNA LAST FEW MINUTES. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT BY 13Z SINCE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD. IFR CONDITIONS
DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW CEILING WILL CONTINUE AT CSV BUT SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 15Z.

FRONTAL BOUNDAY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BASED ON SURFACE LI'S OFF MSAS
AND SREF. BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. AM
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE MAINLY FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TN. WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR CONVECTION. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC LOW/COLD FRONT CURRENTLY HOLDING N OF THE CWA AS SHORTWAVES
PASS N AND S IN UPPER TROUGH. ISO STORMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY CROSSING
KY/TN BORDER EXPECTED TO AFFECT NE THIS MORNING BUT ALSO LEAVE
OUTFLOW ACROSS THE MID-STATE. WHILE MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW
LATER TODAY...SECONDARY PASSING SHORTWAVE/IMPULSE WILL PUSH COLD
FRONT S...INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW/GOOD INSTABILITY/MARGINAL SHEAR
IN PLACE. DEVELOPING STORMS TODAY/THIS EVENING MOST LIKELY SW
WHERE INGREDIENTS SUFFICIENT FOR ISO STORMS TO REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND.

LATER TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE...UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING WHICH
ALONG WITH WEAK SFC HIGH EFFECTIVELY HELPS WASH OUT FRONT BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL LARGELY BRING A DRY PERIOD SUN THROUGH EARLY TUES ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW ISO STORMS PLATEAU LATE MON AND AREA-WIDE MON
NIGHT.

BY 12Z TUES...CLOSED UPPER LOWS SHOWING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A
COLD FRONT SITTING N/W. THIS FRONT WILL STAY JUST N THROUGH WED MORNING
WHILE UPPER LOWS MAKE VERY LITTLE EWARD PROGRESS. INSTABILITY AND
WEAK MOISTURE SOURCES WILL BE PRESENT HOWEVER SO THAT SCT STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUES/TUES NIGHT.

SAME SORT OF SETUP WORKING WED AS UPPER LOWS WOBBLE OUT OF THE PLAINS.
BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF UPPER LOWS SHOWING UP WED
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AGREEMENT ON MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE....WHICH
WILL KEEP AT LEAST SCT STORMS FLOATING AROUND.

UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
BEFORE FINALLY MOVING E EARLY FRI. MOISTURE THROUGH THIS PERIOD A BIT
MORE LIMITED BUT SHWRS/STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST ISO. STORMS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS WED NIGHT HOWEVER AS WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE MID-SOUTH.

UPPER RIDGE BEHIND EXITING UPPER LOWS PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS FRI-SAT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1149 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011700-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1149 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE AREAS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
STATE LINE AND THE UPPER PLATEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
111 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     HAIL             5 S MURFREESBORO        35.78N 86.39W
03/31/2012  E1.75 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

04