Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Nashville, TN

May 19, 2012Montgomery County, Robertson County, Tennessee

NWS Nashville, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 19, 2012, 5:03 PM CDT for Montgomery County, Robertson County, Tennessee. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 19, 2012, 5:03 PM CDT (22:03 UTC)
Expired: May 19, 2012, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Nashville, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Montgomery County, TN, Robertson County, TN

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 833 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -95 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1141 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

626 
WUUS54 KOHX 192203
SVROHX
TNC125-147-192230-
/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0157.120519T2203Z-120519T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
503 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 500 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR ADAMS...
  MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2. DO NOT
STAY OUTDOORS IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 8697 3644 8710 3646 8712 3645 8715
      3642 8715 3643 8718 3641 8718 3640 8722
      3653 8741 3665 8725 3664 8719 3665 8707
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 043DEG 7KT 3658 8713

$$

SHAMBURGER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 19, 3:32 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 19, 3:32 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
332 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISOL TO SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
STATE. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AS PER THE
MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG THE PLATEAU. UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL EXTENDS
ACROSS GA AND NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
TO OUR NORTHWEST. WEAK CURVATURE AND SHEAR REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT
FOR ISOL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...AIRMASS LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GETS CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. GFS STILL SHOWS A
WEAKENING CAP AS PER THE AFTERNOON WARMING. WILL INCLUDE ISOL(10
POPS) AGAIN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA. THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO
30 PERCENT ACROSS OUR WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION CHANCES
WILL MAX OUT ON MONDAY WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES. WILL
INCLUDE 40-60 POPS BUT IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
MON NT WILL REMAIN IN THE .25 - .50 INCH RANGE.

AS FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MAV MIN TEMPS FOR SUN MORNING
AND MON MORNING.

IN THE EXT FCST...PATTERN ON TUESDAY WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY THEN END OF THE EXT HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR KY. EURO SOLUTION MAINTAINS A CLOSED
LOW JUST OFF THE CAR COAST ON SATURDAY. DGEX AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE
FURTHER EAST WITH THE CLOSED LOW. THUS...WILL LEAN TOWARD SOMEWHAT
OF A BLEND AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR
SATURDAY. OTW...A DEFINITIVE WARMING TREND IS ON THE WAY. TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE EXT WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THAT WILL
EQUATE TO LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND HIGHS NEAR 90 TO PERHAPS
THE LOWER 90S. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST  AND 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 20C. SO...THE HEAT IS ON
THE WAY.

AGAINST THE MEX GUIDANCE...WILL DIFFER LITTLE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  88  64  84 /  20  10  20  50
CLARKSVILLE    60  88  61  83 /  20  10  30  50
CROSSVILLE     57  82  58  80 /  20  20  20  50
COLUMBIA       63  88  64  85 /  20  10  20  50
LAWRENCEBURG   61  88  63  85 /  20  10  20  40
WAVERLY        61  88  63  84 /  20  10  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

Hazardous weather outlook, May 19, 5:00 AM CDT, 12 hours 3 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-201030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG, WITH SMALL
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. DUE TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WINDS,
STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW, AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSE

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 19, 4:24 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
424 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             36.50N 86.88W
05/19/2012  E1.00 INCH       ROBERTSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BBOYD

Local storm report, May 19, 4:44 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
444 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             4 W WOODBURY            35.82N 86.14W
05/19/2012  E0.75 INCH       CANNON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHAMBURGER

Special weather statement, May 19, 4:50 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
450 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

TNZ006-007-192230-
MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-
450 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN
ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GUTHRIE...OR 14 MILES EAST OF CLARKSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3664 8696 3644 8710 3646 8712 3645 8715
      3642 8715 3643 8718 3641 8718 3641 8720
      3655 8744 3665 8736 3665 8697

SHAMBURGER

Special weather statement, May 19, 4:55 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

TNZ062-192245-
RUTHERFORD-
455 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUTHERFORD COUNTY...

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MURFREESBORO...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AT 452 PM CDT...MARBLE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN MURFREESBORO WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3565 8642 3564 8646 3569 8653 3570 8664
      3575 8670 3577 8666 3579 8666 3579 8662
      3580 8661 3583 8663 3584 8660 3592 8661
      3600 8647 3583 8626 3562 8641

SHAMBURGER

Local storm report, May 19, 4:59 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
459 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             MURFREESBORO            35.85N 86.39W
05/19/2012  E0.75 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MURFREESBORO

&&

SHAMBURGER

Local storm report, May 19, 5:03 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
503 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             MURFREESBORO            35.85N 86.39W
05/19/2012  E1.00 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG OLD
            FORT PKWY

&&

RET

The office that day

Everything else NWS Nashville, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 18, 7:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Marshall, Maury, Williamson	45 min
May 19, 2:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Van Buren	26 min
May 19, 2:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Van Buren, White	31 min
May 19, 3:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	White	24 min
May 19, 3:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	White	37 min
May 19, 3:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cumberland	33 min
May 19, 4:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cannon	50 min
May 19, 4:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Cannon, Coffee, Rutherford, Warren	53 min
May 19, 4:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Robertson	22 min
May 19, 4:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Montgomery	40 min
May 19, 4:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Rutherford	50 min
May 19, 5:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Bedford, Cannon, Coffee, Rutherford	43 min
May 19, 5:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Maury	25 min
May 19, 5:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cheatham	46 min
May 19, 5:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Wilson	57 min
May 19, 5:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Bedford, Marshall, Rutherford, Williamson	51 min
May 19, 5:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Hickman	45 min
May 19, 5:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Sumner, Trousdale, Wilson	43 min
May 19, 5:58 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OHX	Bedford, Rutherford	2 hr
May 19, 6:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Cheatham	45 min
May 19, 6:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OHX	Giles	39 min
May 19, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OHX	Davidson, Rutherford, Williamson	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.