Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
352 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.SHORT TERM (THRU TUE)...
ANOTHER MCS/MCV TYPE SYSTEM MOVED SOUTH OVR MID TN THIS MORNING
TO NEAR THE GULF COAST THIS AFTN. THE STALLED FRONT IN WEST MID
TN HAS DRIFTED EAST BUT IS MORE DIFFUSE...WITH SOME AREAS OF
MODERATE DESTAB DRIVING ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

MOST OF THE MODEL INSTAB THIS EVENING IS ALIGNED NEAR THE FRONT FM
I-65 WEST...WITH ISO-SCT STORMS EXPECTED. STORM MOTION IS SOUTH AS
PER CORFIDI VECTORS.

SFC LOW PRES WL GET BETTER ORGANIZED IN MO-IL TNGT WHERE MOST OF
THE STORM ACTIVITY WL BE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN WEST MID
TN WL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. WL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

MON-MON NGT...SFC LOW PRES/COLD FRONT WL APPROACH FM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE AFTN. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL INCREASE
TO LKLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA MON-MON NGT. H8 WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE NOT PARTICULARILY STRONG...WITH WEAK SHEAR.

IF A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY MON AFTN-EVE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA TUE MORNING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH IMPROVED WEATHER WED-FRI. WL CONTINUE
THE TREND INTO SAT. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WL PROBABLY DIP BELOW
NORMAL WED-THU...TO NEAR NORMAL FRI. WARMER TEMPS AND MORE
MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  86  64  78 /  20  70  80  50
CLARKSVILLE    65  85  63  76 /  20  70  80  20
CROSSVILLE     61  80  61  76 /  20  40  70  60
COLUMBIA       67  86  64  78 /  30  70  70  40
LAWRENCEBURG   63  86  63  79 /  30  70  70  40
WAVERLY        66  86  64  76 /  30  70  70  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
524 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
524 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE AREA...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

TNZ005-006-062115-
MONTGOMERY-STEWART-
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY AND STEWART
COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT CAMPBELL NORTH...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. AN
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3665 8731 3636 8726 3637 8759 3654 8771
      3664 8764

TB12