Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DISTINCT FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WARM SECTOR
OVERTAKING THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST BC/NORTHERN ID/NORTHWEST MT.
500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 110M EXTENDED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...WITH
STEEPEST FALLS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL JET OF
AROUND 135-145KT HAD ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WAS FOCUSED
ACROSS NM/AZ/SOUTHERN CO...THOUGH 100KT JET STREAK STILL WAS IN
PLACE BEHIND IT AND WAS AIDING IT DIGGING THROUGH THE DAY.  STEEPEST
700-500MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WAS CENTERED FROM NEB/KS INTO
SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR.  850MB LOW AT 12Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST
CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE THROUGH WESTERN
NEB/EASTERN SD/CENTRAL MN AND INTO NORTHERN MI.  WARM SECTOR WAS NOT
ESPECIALLY MOIST...WITH 8C+ DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM WESTERN TX THROUGH OK INTO MO/EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL/SOUTHEAST
MN.  SURFACE LOW AT 21Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST
NEB...WITH SHARP WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THERE THROUGH KBVN TO
KSUX...AND WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.  MUCH COLDER
AIR WAS IN PLACE BENEATH STRATUS FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST NEB
AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH SNOW REPORTED IN WESTERN NEB/WESTERN SD..

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ABRUPT TRANSITION TO COLDER WEATHER AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT.  SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH ACCAS IN SOUTHEAST NEB
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
SHRA/TSRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
OVERALL...STILL BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A LINE OF
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.  THE FASTER THIS HAPPENS...THE LESS LIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE WITH THAT ACTIVITY.  ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
INITIATE AND MAINTAIN ITSELF AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS A BETTER CHANCE
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS IS STILL NO SLAM DUNK.
MOISTURE...THOUGH NOT BAD FOR NOVEMBER...IS STILL NOT GREAT...WITH
20F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...AND WINDS ARE LARGELY VEERED IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT /WITH A FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS IN
CENTRAL NEB...SUCH AS KAUH AND KOLU/. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
HAIL...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF WIND.

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS.  BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN A NARROW BAND TIED TO THE FRONT...AS STABILITY INCREASES
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  COLD AIR WILL COME IN RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE VERY BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO BE MIXED
WITH SLEET AND SNOW.  BELIEVE THREAT FOR FZRA IS LIMITED BY DEPTH OF
COLD AIR BENEATH THE WARM NOSE...WHICH IS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
FREEZING.  SINCE PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS IT CHANGES
OVER...THINK LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WHICH COULD SEE
AROUND A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND SNOW TONIGHT.

TEMPS WILL RISE ONLY A LITTLE ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COUNTERED BY SKIES BECOMING SUNNY.  ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS...ALONG WITH COLD
AIRMASS...WILL ALLOW TEMPS FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE AREA.  SLOW RECOVERY WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...AS WESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
MARGINAL AND THUS WILL KEEP POPS OUT...BUT JUST HIT THE CLOUDS A
LITTLE HARDER.  MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING OF THE NEXT
TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED OFF JUST A LITTLE BIT ON THE TIMING...HOLDING
OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MORESO ON
SATURDAY.  STILL LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN MENTION AT THIS
TIME...BUT NO THUNDER AS INSTABILITY JUST ISN/T THERE RIGHT NOW.

DEWALD

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

ONGOING CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY OCCURRING AT KOFK AND
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KOMA AND
KLNK IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS ALONG WITH THE MAIN WIND SHIFT. DECIDED
TO KEEP CEILINGS WITHIN MVFR RANGE BUT LOWERED KLNK AND KOMA TO 1000
FEET. CAN/T RULE OUT HIGH IFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BREAK EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...AROUND 12Z-15Z...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
401 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-111215-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
401 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS A SECONDARY THREAT. STORMS WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...FORMING INTO A
LINE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISH IN STRENGTH LATER
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS OR HAIL OF ANY SIZE ARE APPRECIATED. REPORTS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR SLEET TONIGHT ALSO WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

MAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
620 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

NEZ042-110045-
PLATTE NE-
620 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PLATTE COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CST...

AT 616 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SILVER CREEK...OR 22 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLATTE CENTER...DUNCAN...MONROE AND TARNOV.

LAT...LON 4166 9762 4160 9727 4136 9749 4136 9752
      4134 9756 4133 9759 4139 9760 4140 9770
      4153 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 210DEG 35KT 4128 9774

BOUSTEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
656 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

NEZ015-033-034-110130-
THURSTON NE-BURT NE-CUMING NE-
656 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THURSTON...NORTHWESTERN BURT
AND NORTHEASTERN CUMING COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CST...

AT 655 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEEMER...OR 34 MILES EAST OF
NORFOLK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENDER...MACY...WALTHILL...BEEMER...BANCROFT...ROSALIE AND THURSTON.

LAT...LON 4221 9635 4217 9635 4213 9631 4212 9627
      4210 9627 4178 9686 4197 9688 4227 9675
      4226 9673 4228 9672 4228 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 227DEG 45KT 4195 9676

BOUSTEAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
708 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             3 S MONROE              41.43N 97.60W
11/10/2012  E0.75 INCH       PLATTE             NE   PUBLIC

&&

VDEWALD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
753 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

NEZ015-033-034-044-045-110245-
DODGE NE-THURSTON NE-BURT NE-WASHINGTON NE-CUMING NE-
753 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DODGE...THURSTON...BURT...
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN CUMING COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CST...

AT 751 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PENDER TO UEHLING TO NORTH BEND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX CITY TO 66 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IDA
GROVE TO 33 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREMONT...BLAIR...TEKAMAH...ARLINGTON...SCRIBNER...LYONS...MACY...
WALTHILL...FORT CALHOUN...HOOPER...DECATUR...BANCROFT...NICKERSON...
INGLEWOOD...KENNARD...UEHLING...CRAIG...OAKLAND...HERMAN AND
ROSALIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4217 9635 4211 9626 4203 9622 4201 9625
      4197 9613 4190 9616 4180 9606 4161 9612
      4154 9609 4151 9604 4155 9601 4148 9602
      4146 9595 4139 9598 4139 9650 4143 9656
      4145 9679 4180 9661 4220 9669 4225 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 265DEG 52KT 4214 9661 4181 9654 4147 9672

BOUSTEAD