Special Weather Statement, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF
SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING MAY AFFECT KOFK
AND KOMA...BUT ONLY A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO MVFR IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

DERGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN INITIAL ISSUE WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE FA IS TRYING TO DESTABILIZE TO SURFACED BASED PARCELS...BUT
STILL REMAINS CAPPED. MODIFYING THE 12Z KOAX SOUNDING INDCD THAT
MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG WAS POSSIBLE WITH MID 90S SFC TMPS AND
LOWER 70S DEW POINTS...BUT WITH NEARLY -75 J/KG OF MLCIN WOULD
STILL BE REMAINING. TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 THIS AFTN...BUT
GIVEN THIS...WE LIKELY STILL HAVE -125 TO -150 J/KG OF MLCIN AS OF
20Z. CONVECTION OVER CNTRL NEB IS ROOTED ABOVE THIS STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION SEEN AT AROUND 850MB AND CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS FEEDING
ON THE 8.5-9 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS CNTRL NEB ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO
ROOT DOWN INTO THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OR IF IT
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. THIS IS MOSTLY IMPORTANT FOR SVR WX
POTENTIAL AS THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONT TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE WRN CWA THRU THE EVNG
AND THEN TRY TO MAKE IT E OF THE RIVER LATE THIS EVNG AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IF THE ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BECOME ROOTED IN BETTER
INSTABILITY THAN SOME WIND/HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE
GIVEN THE SHEAR ABOVE 850MB IT IS GENERALLY A NON SEVERE EVNT WITH
SOME STORMS PULSING TO NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SVR LIMITS. IN
GENERAL HAVE INCREASED GOING POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CNTRL
CWA ALNG AND N OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANY LEFT OVER ACTIVITY IN THE ERN CWA AND WILL EXIT THE FA BY SUN
AFTN AND THIS MAY BE THE LAST CHC AT ANY PRECIP FOR THIS WEEK.
WILL CONT SOME LO CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU 18Z AND THEN
REMOVE ANY AFTN/EVNG POPS AFTER THAT. MODELS /SUCH AS THE NAM/
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AS OF LATE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN
THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
/SUCH AS TODAY IN NE KS AND PROGGED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER NRN NEB/...BUT THIS HASN'T HAPPENED IN THE PAST AND SEEMS
UNLIKELY AND WILL DISREGARD AT THE CURRENT TIME AS THE MODEL SEEMS
TO BE REMOVING THE INHIBITION TO QUICKLY. TMPS WILL REBOUND WELL
ON SUN AS SFC FLOW TURNS DUE SOUTH OR JUST WEST OF SOUTH AND
ALLOWS FOR BETTER MIXING AND UPPER 90S LOOK GOOD.

LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY AGAIN TODAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SMALL
CHC AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE-
SCALE SUPPORT IT WOULD JUST BE ISO IN NATURE NEXT SAT...AND THIS
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS RANGE. OTHERWISE CONT
PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECASTS OF UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING OUT IT LOOKS
LIKE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE 100-105 EACH DAY AND JUST
BELOW ADVRY CRITERIA.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
859 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

NEZ093-010245-
RICHARDSON NE-
859 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICHARDSON COUNTY
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 856 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BERN...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
FALLS CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FALLS CITY...VERDON...DAWSON...SALEM AND PRESTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9593 4016 9583 4013 9545 4000 9551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 243DEG 15KT 4000 9585

DEE