Alert archive / Iowa / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Omaha, NE

August 16, 2012Mills County, Iowa

NWS Omaha, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 16, 2012, 12:27 AM CDT for Mills County, Iowa. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 16, 2012, 12:27 AM CDT (05:27 UTC)
Expired: Aug 16, 2012, 1:00 AM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Omaha, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Mills County, IA

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1882 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -158 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2071 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

081 
WUUS53 KOAX 160527
SVROAX
IAC129-160600-
/O.NEW.KOAX.SV.W.0219.120816T0527Z-120816T0600Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1227 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MILLS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1223 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
  NEAR GLENWOOD...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA...AND MOVING
  SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EMERSON...SILVER CITY...HASTINGS AND HENDERSON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 9579 4116 9570 4116 9538 4098 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0523Z 304DEG 19KT 4113 9572 
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

FOBERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 15, 11:31 PM CDT, 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 11:31 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL TAF SITES AT 06Z WITH CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012/

UPDATE...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

CDFNT IS CURRENTLY MOVG SEWD THRU NE NEB...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE DECREASING FOR THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDCS THAT THE CAP IS WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...VISIBLE SAT
IMAGERY INDCS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACED-BASED CU ALONG OR BEHIND
THE CDFNT INDCG THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
AGGRESSIVE IN REDUCING THE CAP. THIS COULD BE POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF
THICK SMOKE FM THE WRN US FIRES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN
CHECK THRU THE AFTN WITH ONLY LOWER TO MID 90S OBSERVED. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW CHC POP ALONG THE FNT THIS EVNG AND CONT SOME CHC
POPS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FNT AS THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES
AND MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS. UPDATES ALREADY SENT.

BOUSTEAD

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 20Z. A FAIRLY HEALTHY CAP
STILL EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT WITH H70 TEMPS RANGING FROM +11 TO
+13...AND SURFACE BASED CIN BASED ON MESOANALYSIS FROM 50 TO 150
J/KG. MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CONCERNING...EXCEPT FOR IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WHERE TEMPS ARE AROUND 100. THUS...BELIEVE
THAT IT WILL STILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL 00Z...AND ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE WE'LL FORECAST 50 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT'S IN THIS AREA THAT MODELS
SEEM TO AGREE...BASED ON HRRR/RAP/SREF/NAM SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE
THAT ANY REAL PRECIP THREAT WOULD NOT REACH THE I80 CORRIDOR UNTIL
POSSIBLY 03-06Z... AND THEN WHATEVER DEVELOPS PUSHING SOUTH AND
EAST FROM THERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN 50/60 PERCENT POPS SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWFA AFTER 06Z. POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE COULD BE
OVERDONE THOUGH IF WE FAIL TO GET SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z.

A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST GIVE US A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THAT WOULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ALSO AT THAT TIME...THE INSTABILITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
OUTRUN THE FRONT BY THEN.

AFTER THAT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
DIMINISHING.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE AFFECTING THE
REGION LATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO
AT LEAST FORECAST A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS...WHICH
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE
APPEARS BY MID WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS BY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 8:03 PM CDT, 4 hours 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
803 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-161515-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
803 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 15, 11:28 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1128 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HAIL             8 WNW OMAHA             41.31N 96.15W
08/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT 156TH AND MILITARY.

&&

BMAYES

Local storm report, Aug 15, 11:43 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1143 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     HAIL             5 WNW OMAHA             41.29N 96.10W
08/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            72ND AND HWY 36. ALSO WINDS 40-50 MPH.

&&

BMAYES

Local storm report, Aug 15, 11:58 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1158 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     HAIL             2 W OMAHA               41.26N 96.05W
08/15/2012  E0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            35TH AND FARNAM. HAIL UP TO NICKELS BUT MOST HAIL WAS
            SMALLER THAN THAT.

&&

BMAYES

Local storm report, Aug 16, 12:06 AM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1206 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     HAIL             OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
08/15/2012  E0.50 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   ASOS

            REPORTED AT EPPLEY AIRFIELD.

&&

BMAYES

Local storm report, Aug 16, 12:19 AM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1219 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 AM     HAIL             PLATTSMOUTH             41.01N 95.89W
08/16/2012  E1.00 INCH       CASS               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BMAYES

Local storm report, Aug 16, 12:25 AM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1225 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     HAIL             3 W PACIFIC JUNCTION    41.02N 95.86W
08/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       MILLS              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.5 TO 0.75 INCH HAIL.

&&

BMAYES

The office that day

Everything else NWS Omaha, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 15, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Pottawattamie	34 min
Aug 16, 12:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Mills, Pottawattamie	28 min
Aug 16, 12:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Fremont, Mills	23 min
Aug 16, 12:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Mills, Montgomery, Page	31 min
Aug 16, 1:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Monona	30 min
Aug 16, 1:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Page	20 min
Aug 16, 1:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Monona	16 min
Aug 16, 2:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Shelby	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Iowa, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.