Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Omaha, NE

August 15, 2012Washington County, Nebraska

NWS Omaha, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 15, 2012, 10:50 PM CDT for Washington County, Nebraska. It was in force for 25 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 15, 2012, 10:50 PM CDT (03:50 UTC)
Expired: Aug 15, 2012, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 25 min
Issued by: NWS Omaha, NE
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Washington County, NE

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 15, 11:14 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	Blair, NE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1882 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -158 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2071 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

560 
WUUS53 KOAX 160350
SVROAX
NEC177-160415-
/O.NEW.KOAX.SV.W.0215.120816T0350Z-120816T0415Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1050 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1048 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
  INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLAIR...OR 29
  MILES NORTHWEST OF OMAHA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLAIR...FORT CALHOUN AND HERMAN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4144 9600 4157 9639 4168 9639 4168 9613
      4166 9610 4161 9612 4158 9608 4154 9609
      4151 9604 4155 9602 4153 9600 4151 9600
      4149 9602 4147 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 282DEG 25KT 4163 9631 
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

BOUSTEAD

2 follow-up statements

190 
WWUS53 KOAX 160355
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1055 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

NEC177-160415-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-120816T0415Z/
WASHINGTON NE-
1055 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 1053 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLAIR...OR 26 MILES
NORTHWEST OF OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAIR AND FORT CALHOUN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4144 9600 4156 9632 4166 9632 4167 9613
      4166 9610 4161 9612 4158 9608 4154 9609
      4151 9605 4151 9603 4155 9602 4153 9600
      4149 9602 4147 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 287DEG 27KT 4160 9627 
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

BOUSTEAD

300 
WWUS53 KOAX 160413
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1113 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

NEC177-160422-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-120816T0415Z/
WASHINGTON NE-
1113 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4144 9600 4156 9632 4166 9632 4167 9613
      4166 9610 4161 9612 4158 9608 4154 9609
      4151 9605 4151 9603 4155 9602 4153 9600
      4149 9602 4147 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 282DEG 25KT 4160 9627 

$$

BOUSTEAD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Omaha, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 15, 6:52 PM CDT, 3 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 6:52 PM CDT, 3 hours 58 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
652 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PRESENT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION BUT LOOKING MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012/

UPDATE...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

CDFNT IS CURRENTLY MOVG SEWD THRU NE NEB...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE DECREASING FOR THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDCS THAT THE CAP IS WEAK ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...VISIBLE SAT
IMAGERY INDCS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACED-BASED CU ALONG OR BEHIND
THE CDFNT INDCG THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
AGGRESSIVE IN REDUCING THE CAP. THIS COULD BE POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF
THICK SMOKE FM THE WRN US FIRES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HELD IN
CHECK THRU THE AFTN WITH ONLY LOWER TO MID 90S OBSERVED. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW CHC POP ALONG THE FNT THIS EVNG AND CONT SOME CHC
POPS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FNT AS THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES
AND MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS. UPDATES ALREADY SENT.

BOUSTEAD

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT 20Z. A FAIRLY HEALTHY CAP
STILL EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT WITH H70 TEMPS RANGING FROM +11 TO
+13...AND SURFACE BASED CIN BASED ON MESOANALYSIS FROM 50 TO 150
J/KG. MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CONCERNING...EXCEPT FOR IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WHERE TEMPS ARE AROUND 100. THUS...BELIEVE
THAT IT WILL STILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP...PERHAPS NOT UNTIL 00Z...AND ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE WE'LL FORECAST 50 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT'S IN THIS AREA THAT MODELS
SEEM TO AGREE...BASED ON HRRR/RAP/SREF/NAM SOLUTIONS. BELIEVE
THAT ANY REAL PRECIP THREAT WOULD NOT REACH THE I80 CORRIDOR UNTIL
POSSIBLY 03-06Z... AND THEN WHATEVER DEVELOPS PUSHING SOUTH AND
EAST FROM THERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN 50/60 PERCENT POPS SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWFA AFTER 06Z. POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE COULD BE
OVERDONE THOUGH IF WE FAIL TO GET SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z.

A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST GIVE US A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THAT WOULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ALSO AT THAT TIME...THE INSTABILITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
OUTRUN THE FRONT BY THEN.

AFTER THAT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
DIMINISHING.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE AFFECTING THE
REGION LATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO
AT LEAST FORECAST A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS...WHICH
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVE
APPEARS BY MID WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS BY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 8:03 PM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
803 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-161515-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
803 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 10:44 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1044 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

NEZ045-160430-
WASHINGTON NE-
1044 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 1130
PM CDT...

AT 1039 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF HOOPER...OR 33
MILES NORTHWEST OF OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAIR...FORT CALHOUN AND HERMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN OMAHA.

&&

LAT...LON 4144 9600 4155 9644 4168 9644 4168 9613
      4166 9610 4161 9612 4158 9608 4154 9609
      4151 9604 4155 9602 4153 9600 4151 9600
      4149 9602 4147 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 281DEG 24KT 4165 9640

BOUSTEAD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Omaha, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 15, 10:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Washington	46 min
Aug 15, 11:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Douglas, Sarpy	37 min
Aug 15, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Douglas	34 min
Aug 16, 12:22 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OAX	Cass	23 min
Aug 16, 1:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Madison, Wayne	31 min
Aug 16, 1:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OAX	Cuming, Stanton, Thurston	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.