Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Omaha, NE

101 
WWUS53 KOAX 232217
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
517 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

NEC037-039-053-232300-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-120523T2300Z/
COLFAX NE-CUMING NE-DODGE NE-
517 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM 
CDT FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COLFAX...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CUMING 
AND DODGE COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
NORTH BEND...OR 25 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 
MPH. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCRIBNER...DODGE AND SNYDER. 

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 275 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 127 AND 129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES 
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST 
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO 
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 9689 4168 9663 4147 9686 4147 9687
      4149 9691 4152 9696 4159 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 216DEG 35KT 4154 9689 
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MILLER

661 
WWUS53 KOAX 232227
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
527 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

NEC037-232310-
/O.CAN.KOAX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-120523T2300Z/
COLFAX NE-
527 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COLFAX 
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS 
MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4180 9690 4180 9681 4168 9663 4152 9681
      4153 9685 4155 9688 4159 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 208DEG 35KT 4162 9683 

$$

NEC039-053-232300-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-120523T2300Z/
CUMING NE-DODGE NE-
527 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM 
CDT FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CUMING AND DODGE COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SNYDER...OR 29 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCRIBNER...DODGE AND SNYDER. 

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 275 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 127 AND 129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES 
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST 
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO 
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4180 9690 4180 9681 4168 9663 4152 9681
      4153 9685 4155 9688 4159 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 208DEG 35KT 4162 9683 
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

MILLER

161 
WWUS53 KOAX 232239
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
539 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

NEC039-232310-
/O.CAN.KOAX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-120523T2300Z/
CUMING NE-
539 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL 
CUMING COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING WAS NO LONGER 
THREATENING SOUTH CENTRAL CUMING COUNTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4173 9684 4175 9682 4174 9673 4168 9663
      4152 9681 4153 9685 4155 9688 4159 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 213DEG 36KT 4168 9672 

$$

NEC053-232300-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-120523T2300Z/
DODGE NE-
539 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM 
CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTY...

AT 534 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCRIBNER...OR 37 
MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. 
ANOTHER STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF NORTH BEND AND THIS 
STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE WARNED AREA AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
 
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SCRIBNER AND SNYDER. 

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 275 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 127 AND 129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES 
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY 
RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST 
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO 
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 9684 4175 9682 4174 9673 4168 9663
      4152 9681 4153 9685 4155 9688 4159 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 213DEG 36KT 4168 9672 
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

MILLER

615 
WWUS53 KOAX 232248
SVSOAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY 
NEBRASKA 548 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

NEC053-232310-
/O.CAN.KOAX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-120523T2300Z/
DODGE NE-
548 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTY 
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND 
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.

LAT...LON 4173 9684 4175 9682 4174 9673 4168 9663
      4152 9681 4153 9685 4155 9688 4159 9690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 208DEG 35KT 4168 9672 

$$

MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WHICH NOT
ONLY KEEPS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT THE PRIMARY FOCUS
...BUT ALSO MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A
WAYNE TO COLUMBUS LINE BY 19Z WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
POSSIBLE THICKENING/INCREASING CU FIELD NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT.
PER SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WARM H7
TEMPERATURES HAVE THUS FAR CAPPED ACTIVITY...BUT MIXED LAYER AND
SFC CIN VALUES WERE DECREASING AND HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP NEAR BOUNDARY IN 23Z-01Z PERIOD. THUS WOULD
EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO GET GOING EARLY IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD IF
NOT JUST BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR
AND JUST W OF FRONT FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WOULD SUSPECT FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL
THREAT PER LATEST SPC MCD. SECONDARY WAVE PIVOTING AROUND UPPER
TROUGH LATER TONIGHT SWINGS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG SEWD PROGRESSING
FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO PUSH A LITTLE
FARTHER N POSSIBLY PROVIDING A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MODESTLY HIGH... WILL NOT ONLY KEEP
HEAVY RAIN MENTION GOING TONIGHT BUT ALSO VERY HIGH POPS. MADE A
MINOR ADJUSTMENT IN DELAYING THESE HIGHER POPS LNK/OMA AREAS UNTIL
AFTER 02Z...HOWEVER. LATE NIGHT CONVECTION COULD SET UP A LITTLE
SE OF EVENING CONVECTION AND WITH FLASH FLOOD VALUES STILL FAIRLY
HIGH DID NOT MENTION FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. FRONT SHOULD
PUSH ACROSS SERN ZONES BY MID DAY OR A LITTLE LATER ON THURSDAY
AND WITH SOME WRLY COMPONENT TO WINDS AND MINIMAL COOL
ADVECTION...SOME READINGS COULD HIT OR SURPASS 80 SERN ZONES.
MEANWHILE...POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS NRN ZONES COULD MAKE
IT A STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.

ISENTROPIC LIFT AND EASTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
CLOUDS WITH LIMITED MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURE ON COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. TRIMMED BACK MOST HIGHS. HOWEVER...PRETTY WARM H85 TEMPS
WILL BE CREEPING INTO FAR SE NEBR THUS WILL LEAVE FAR SRN ZONES
NEAR 80.

RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING
SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD
COUNTER FORCING/LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET...BUT
BASICALLY MADE LITTLE/NO POP CHANGES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND PROBABLY PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY MANY AREAS. BOOSTED HIGHS INTO LOWER 90S SERN ZONES.
KEPT HIGH POPS WITH FRONT SUN/SUN NIGHT BUT DID NOT ADJUST TIMING
YET...BUT COULD SEE CHANCES NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
LATER...SIMILAR TO TODAY.

FRONT COULD PUSH THOUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DECENT
MEMORIAL DAY WITH NW SURFACE WINDS PROVIDING DRYING/CLEARING.
HOWEVER...DID KEEP SMALL POPS GOING SERN ZONES.

COOLER WEATHER THEN POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS NRN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW MUCH COOLING. SO EVEN THOUGH LITTLE/NO
CHANGES WERE MADE FROM A MODEL BLEND PERSPECTIVE...CONFIDENCE NOT
VERY HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES/TEMPS.

CHERMOK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.

MAIN CONCERN IS TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG A FRONTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH THRU ERN NEB THIS AFTN AND EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD
BE PASSING THRU KOFK AROUND 22Z. SFC BNDRY SHOULD THEN BE AT KOMA
AND KLNK AROUND 24/01Z...THEN STALL OUT. TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT IS LIKELY WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN NEB MAINLY DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE WITH 18Z ISSUANCE DUE TO AREAL
UNCERTAINTY. AFT 06Z...SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES BUT OCCASIONAL SHRA
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 24/14Z DUE TO PROXIMITY OF
STALLED FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DEE

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ034-044-045-
     051>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-232300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE. THEN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT IS PROBABLE THAT SOME
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. LARGE HAIL AS
WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN..STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LATER
OUTLOOKS WILL REFINE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THE RESULT OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND LINGERING
IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...BUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AFTER 3 PM
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.