Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Omaha, NE

Fremont County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Richardson County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE

747 
WWUS83 KOAX 110000
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
700 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH VERY LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

IAZ043-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
110800-
/O.EXP.KOAX.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120911T0000Z/
/O.CON.KOAX.FW.W.0010.120911T1800Z-120912T0000Z/
MONONA-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
LANCASTER-SALINE-
700 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 051...065...066 AND 078......FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 051...065... 066 AND 078...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 051...065...066 AND 078......FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 051...065... 066 AND 078......RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR EXTREME FIRE
DANGER...

* WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35
  MPH. 

* HUMIDITY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NONE EXPECTED.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR
  BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ045-052-053-067-068-088>093-
110800-
/O.CON.KOAX.FW.W.0010.120911T1800Z-120912T0000Z/
HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-
WASHINGTON-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-OTOE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-
PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
700 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35
  MPH.

* HUMIDITY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NONE EXPECTED.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING TODAY IS NOT RECOMMENDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

977 
WWUS83 KOAX 110410
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1110 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH VERY LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS
COMBINATION WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-111215-
/O.CON.KOAX.FW.W.0010.120911T1800Z-120912T0000Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1110 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 
  MPH. 

* HUMIDITY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NONE EXPECTED.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING TODAY IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

222 
WWUS83 KOAX 110915
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
415 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-111715-
/O.CON.KOAX.FW.W.0010.120911T1800Z-120912T0000Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
415 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 
  MPH. 

* HUMIDITY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NONE EXPECTED.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR
  BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FOBERT

663 
WWUS83 KOAX 111500
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...

.SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO
35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-120000-
/O.CON.KOAX.FW.W.0010.120911T1800Z-120912T0000Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

* WIND...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO
  35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NONE EXPECTED.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR
  BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

182 
WWUS83 KOAX 112357
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
657 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-120100-
/O.EXP.KOAX.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120912T0000Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
657 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SLOWLY CLIMB WITH NIGHTFALL. THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

KERN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFERNOON WILL LOSE THE GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET...WITH
SPEEDS STILL MAINTAINING AROUND 12-15KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AROUND 14-15Z...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.

MAYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON SEP 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...FROM
20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S TODAY... THEY PROBABLY WON'T GO MUCH HIGHER. WE ALREADY HAVE A
RED FLAG WARNING OUT WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY
REACH THE TEENS...AND HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THAT A TIER OF COUNTIES
SOUTHEAST WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE
CRITICAL 20 PERCENT THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
ABOVE GUIDANCE...MORESO BASED ON OUR SUPER ENSEMBLE BLEND. CLEAR
SKIES TODAY.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING UP ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD BE EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND
SUNNY SKIES...AGAIN WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES...REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE STRONG MIXING AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. WINDS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 MPH...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO
AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THUS WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...MITIGATING THE FIRE
THREAT IN A COUPLE OF COUNTIES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LAGS QUITE A BIT...BUT COULD BEGIN TO SEE
PRECIP DEVELOP ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT SUBSTANTIAL AREA
OF PRECIP DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE...IN FACT ALL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING RAIN/SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSHING SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THUS...GIVEN BOTH EXCELLENT MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY...HAVE INCREASE POPS OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST BY
ABOUT 10 PERCENT IN MOST AREA. POTENTIAL QPF AMOUNTS COULD EASILY
RANGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IF NOT MORE. NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUS EXPECTING MOSTLY
JUST RAIN...BUT COULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
GIVEN WEAK STABILITY ALOFT. BELIEVE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
OVER BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH COULD
LINGER SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS LATER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

LOOKS DRY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING TAKING HOLD
BEHIND THE MID WEEK WEATHER MAKER.

DEWALD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>090-092.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-110730-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1230 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHERE A COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EXIST. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

MAYES