Small Craft Advisory for Rough Bar 2, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1039 PM PST WED JAN 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 PM PST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILT UP OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ALL AROUND THE DISTRICT AND A RECORD
HIGH WAS SET IN MOUNTAIN VIEW. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS STORM WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY BUT RAIN
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND IMPACT THE BAY AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS AN
INSIDE SLIDER MOVES INTO UTAH AND ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT TO THE AREA RESULTING
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN ALL AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE HILLS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNDAY BUT THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:23 PM PST WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH PERIOD. HAZE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:40 PM PST WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SCA RANGE WILL DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...A STORM SYSTEM IN THE N PACIFIC PRODUCING A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FINALLY IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS IN
OPEN WATERS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 15 FEET WITH A LONG PERIOD. THE
REAL QUESTION WILL BE HOW HIGH THE SURF WILL BE AT THE SHORELINE.
AT THIS TIME...THE SET UP SEEMS A LITTLE MARGINAL FOR A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION WITH THE NEXT MODEL
RUN. IF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS TO BE ISSUED HIGHEST SWELL WILL
MOST LIKELY IMPACT THE SHORELINE THURSDAY NIGHT. NONE THE
LESS...THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND WAVES WILL MAKE FOR CONFUSED
SEAS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 7 AM UNTIL 3 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 7 AM UNTIL 3
     PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION: MM/CW
MARINE: MM