River Flood Warning 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

532 
WGUS46 KMTR 011315
FLWMTR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
515 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN CALIFORNIA...

  NAPA RIVER NEAR ST. HELENA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY

.ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED
SOILS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN AND A FORECAST OF AN ADDITIONAL THREE
TO SIX INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA AND NEAR NAPA TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CAC055-020115-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0001.121202T1933Z-121203T1400Z/
/SHEC1.2.ER.121202T1933Z.121202T2300Z.121203T0200Z.NR/
515 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA.
* UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY DEC 2 2012.
* AT 2:00 AM PST SATURDAY THE STAGE AT ST HELENA WAS 4.9 FT.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.0 FT AROUND NOON SUNDAY.
* THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 18.4 FT AT 3:00 PM SUNDAY.
* THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
* THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 3.0 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE AT ST HELENA IS 16.0 FT.
* AT 16.0 FT MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH
  INCLUDING THE LOWEST AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG THE REACH. MANY RURAL
  AREAS INCLUDING SOME PRIMARY ROADS AND MANY SECONDARY ROADS WILL
  HAVE MINOR FLOODING.
* AT 18.0 FEET MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS LOWER AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG
  THE REACH. WIDESPREAD CROP LOSSES AND EROSION OF LAND. MANY
  PRIMARY AND MOST SECONDARY ROADS WILL FLOOD...MAKING TRAVEL
  DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
* AT 19.0 FEET MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS UPPER NAPA VALLEY MAKING ALL
  TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. MAJOR TO DISASTROUS FLOODING AFFECTING
  ALL TOWNS IN THE REGION.

$$

CAC055-020115-
/O.NEW.KMTR.FL.W.0003.121202T2107Z-121203T1512Z/
/APCC1.2.ER.121202T2107Z.121203T0000Z.121203T0312Z.NO/
515 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA.
* UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY DEC 2 2012.
* AT 2:00 AM PST SATURDAY THE STAGE AT NAPA WAS 14.1 FT.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 25.0 FT AT 2:00 PM SUNDAY.
* THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 26.4 FT AT 4:00 PM SUNDAY.
* THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
* THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 9.0 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD STAGE AT NAPA IS 25.0 FT.
* AT 22.0 FEET EROSION OF THE LOWEST AGRICULTURAL AREAS ALONG THE
  NAPA RIVER WILL OCCUR.
* AT 25.0 FEET THE LOWER AREAS OF YOUNTVILLE AND NAPA NEAR THE NAPA
  RIVER WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING. SOME SECONDARY ROADS WILL HAVE
  MINOR FLOODING.
* AT 26.0 FEET MODERATE FLOODING WILL CAUSE CROP LOSSES AND EROSION 
  TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS ALONG THE NAPA RIVER. SOME PRIMARY AND
  SECONDARY ROADS WILL HAVE MODERATE FLOODING MAKING TRAVEL VERY
  DIFFICULT.

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RIVER FLOODING CAN CAUSE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS LIKE BANK COLLAPSE AND 
SHIFTING CHANNELS. AVOID AREAS ADJACENT TO A FLOODING RIVER SINCE 
THE EARTH UNDERNEATH MAY BE ERODED. DO NOT LET CHILDREN PLAY NEAR 
FLOODWATERS...ESPECIALLY AROUND CULVERTS AND  STORM DRAINS.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 AM PST DEC 01 OR SOONER
AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

947 
WGUS86 KMTR 011747
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
947 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

  NAPA RIVER NEAR ST. HELENA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY

.MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA AND NAPA
RIVER NEAR ST. HELENA.  ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE 
FORECAST FLOOD ARE SHOWN BELOW.  THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST. HELENA IS 
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MIDDAY...AND TO CREST AROUND
18 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THE NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA IS EXPECTED TO 
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MIDDAY...AND TO CREST NEAR 27 FEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE SOILS ARE WELL SATURATED...ADDITIONAL SLOPE FAILURES
...MUDSLIDES...AND TREE FALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY 
AND MONDAY...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING MOBILITY IN AREAS AFFECTED BY FLOODING.

CAC055-021747-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0001.121202T1928Z-121203T1344Z/
/SHEC1.2.ER.121202T1928Z.121202T2300Z.121203T0144Z.NR/
947 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

FORECAST POINT NEAR
NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA 12/01 09:30 STAGE 4.7 FT
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF  16.0 FT NEAR TOMORROW NOON 
THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 18.0 FT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEN FORECAST 
TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE OF 16.0 FT TOMORROW EVENING THEN FORECAST 
TO RECEDE TO NEAR 3.0 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE
NEAR 3.0 FT THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MONITOR STAGE MSG FT, FLOOD STAGE 16.0 FT
* AT 18.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS LOWER AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG 
  THE REACH.  WIDESPREAD CROP LOSSES AND EROSION OF LAND.  MANY 
  PRIMARY AND MOST SECONDARY ROADS WILL FLOOD, MAKING TRAVEL 
  DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

$$

CAC055-021747-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0003.121202T2027Z-121203T1548Z/
/APCC1.2.ER.121202T2027Z.121203T0000Z.121203T0348Z.NO/
947 AM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

FORECAST POINT NEAR
NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA 12/01 09:00 STAGE 11.9 FT
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 22.0 FT LATE TOMORROW MORNING
THEN EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF  25.0 FT NEAR TOMORROW 
NOON THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 27.0 FT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEN 
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE OF 25.0 FT TOMORROW EVENING THEN 
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW MONITOR STAGE OF 22.0 FT LATE TOMORROW EVENING
THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 9.0 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN 
FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE NEAR 9.0 FT THRU EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MONITOR STAGE 22.0 FT, FLOOD STAGE 25.0 FT
* AT 26.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING WILL CAUSE CROP LOSSES AND EROSION
  TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS ALONG THE NAPA RIVER.  SOME PRIMARY AND MANY 
  SECONDARY ROADS WILL HAVE MODERATE FLOODING MAKING TRAVEL VERY 
  DIFFICULT.

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 PM PST DEC 01 2012 OR 
SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

STRUDLEY

954 
WGUS86 KMTR 020000
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
400 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING 
RIVERS IN CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE AFFECTING SONOMA COUNTY

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CALIFORNIA...

  NAPA RIVER NEAR ST. HELENA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY

.RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NAPA AND RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN
RATES WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE RUSSION AND NAPA RIVER BASIN
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BECAUSE SOILS ARE
ALREADY SATURDATED...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FLOODING ON THE NAPA RIVER BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
ON THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FLOODING
ON THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

CAC055-030000-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0001.121202T2005Z-121203T1333Z/
/SHEC1.1.ER.121202T2005Z.121202T2300Z.121203T0133Z.NR/
400 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
   THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA
*  UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
*  AT 1:30 PM PST SATURDAY THE STAGE AT ST HELENA WAS 4.6 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.0 FT AROUND NOON
   ON SUNDAY
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 18.0 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 3 FT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
*  FLOOD STAGE AT ST HELENA IS 16.0 FT
*  AT 16.0 FT MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH
   INCLUDING THE LOWEST AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG THE REACH.  MANY RURAL
   AREAS INCLUDING SOME PRIMARY ROADS AND MANY SECONDARY ROADS WILL
   HAVE MINOR FLOODING.
*  AT 18.0 FEET MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS LOWER AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG
   THE REACH.  WIDESPREAD CROP LOSSES AND EROSION OF LAND.  MANY
   PRIMARY AND MOST SECONDARY ROADS WILL FLOOD, MAKING TRAVEL
   DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

$$

CAC055-030000-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0003.121202T2051Z-121203T1542Z/
/APCC1.2.ER.121202T2051Z.121203T0000Z.121203T0342Z.NO/
400 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
   THE NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA
*  UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
*  AT 2:00 PM PST SATURDAY THE STAGE NEAR NAPA WAS 12.1 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 22.0 FT JUST PRIOR
   TO NOON ON SUNDAY
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 25.0 FT SHORTLY AFTER
   NOON ON SUNDAY
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 27 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE BELOW 9 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
*  FLOOD STAGE NEAR NAPA IS 25.0 FT
*  AT 25.0 FEET THE LOWER AREAS OF YOUNTVILLE AND NAPA NEAR THE NAPA
   RIVER WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING. SOME SECONDARY ROADS WILL HAVE
   MINOR FLOODING.
*  AT 26.0 FEET MODERATE FLOODING WILL CAUSE CROP LOSSES AND EROSION
   TO AGRICULTURAL AREAS ALONG THE NAPA RIVER. SOME PRIMARY AND
   SECONDARY ROADS WILL HAVE MODERATE FLOODING MAKING TRAVEL VERY
   DIFFICULT.

$$

CAC097-030000-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.121203T1030Z-121204T1610Z/
/GUEC1.2.ER.121203T1030Z.121203T1900Z.121204T0410Z.NO/
400 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED FOR
   THE RUSSIAN RIVER NEAR GUERNEVILLE
*  UNTIL LATE MONDAY EVENING
*  AT 2:00 PM PST SATURDAY THE STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE WAS 21.9 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 29.0 FT LATE SUNDAY
   EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 32.0 FT EARLY
   MONDAY MORNING
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 35.0 FEET JUST PRIOR TO NOON
   ON MONDAY
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE MONDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 15.5 FT BY EARLY THURSDAY
   MORNING
*  FLOOD STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE IS 32.0 FT
*  AT 36.0 FEET...IN FORESTVILLE MARABEL PARK RESORT AND MARABEL
   TRAILER PARK FLOOD.  IN GUERNEVILLE FERN ROAD AT HWY 116 FLOODS.
*  AT 35.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER
   RUSSIAN RIVER. NUMEROUS BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES IN THE LOWEST
   SECTIONS OF TOWNS WITHIN THE REACH ARE EXPECTED TO FLOOD. IN
   GUERNEVILLE BROOKSIDE RESORT BEGINS TO FLOOD.  MORE EXTENSIVE
   FLOODING OCCURS AT PARKERS RESORT.  IN NORTHWOOD LOWER REDWOOD
   DRIVE FLOODS.
*  AT 34.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE FLOODING BEGINS AT JOHNSONS RESORT,
   PARKERS RESORT, CREEKSIDE RESORT AND RIVERSIDE PARK.  IN NORTHWOOD
   LOWER REDWOOD DRIVE BEGINS TO FLOOD.
*  AT 33.0 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 116 AND DRAKE
   RD IS CLOSED.  IN MONTE RIO WILLOW AND ALDER STREETS FLOOD.  IN
   FORESTVILLE MARABEL TRAILER PARK BEGINS TO FLOOD.
*  AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
   RD IS CLOSED.  MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
*  AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING.  LOWER MILL STREET IN
   GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO
   FLOOD.

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.

$$

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 PM PST SATURDAY DEC 01 OR
SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

180 
WGUS86 KMTR 020613
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
1013 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE AFFECTING SONOMA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR ST. HELENA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY

.RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NAPA AND RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN
RATES WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE RUSSION AND NAPA RIVER BASINS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. BECAUSE SOILS ARE
ALREADY SATURATED...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THE NAPA RIVER SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER TO FLOOD
STAGE ON MONDAY MORNING.

CAC055-030613-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0001.121202T2049Z-121203T1300Z/
/SHEC1.1.ER.121202T2049Z.121202T2300Z.121203T0100Z.NR/
1013 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
   THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA
*  UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
*  AT 9:30 PM PST SATURDAY THE STAGE AT ST HELENA WAS 4.2 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.0 FT SHORTLY
   AFTER NOON ON SUNDAY.
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 17.0 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 3 FT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
*  FLOOD STAGE AT ST HELENA IS 16.0 FT
*  AT 16.0 FT MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH
   INCLUDING THE LOWEST AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG THE REACH.  MANY RURAL
   AREAS INCLUDING SOME PRIMARY ROADS AND MANY SECONDARY ROADS WILL
   HAVE MINOR FLOODING.
*  AT 18.0 FEET MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS LOWER AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG
   THE REACH.  WIDESPREAD CROP LOSSES AND EROSION OF LAND.  MANY
   PRIMARY AND MOST SECONDARY ROADS WILL FLOOD, MAKING TRAVEL
   DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

$$

CAC055-030613-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0003.121202T2330Z-121203T1320Z/
/APCC1.1.ER.121202T2330Z.121203T0000Z.121203T0120Z.NO/
1013 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
   THE NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA
*  UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
*  AT 9:00 PM PST SATURDAY THE STAGE NEAR NAPA WAS 11.2 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 22.0 FT NEAR NOON
   ON SUNDAY
*  THEN FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 25.0 FT SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON
*  FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 25 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE BELOW 9 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING
*  FLOOD STAGE NEAR NAPA IS 25.0 FT
*  AT 25.0 FEET THE LOWER AREAS OF YOUNTVILLE AND NAPA NEAR THE NAPA
   RIVER WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING. SOME SECONDARY ROADS WILL HAVE
   MINOR FLOODING.

$$

CAC097-030613-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.121203T1500Z-121204T0700Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.121203T1500Z.121203T1700Z.121203T1900Z.NO/
1013 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
   THE RUSSIAN RIVER NEAR GUERNEVILLE
*  UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
*  AT 9:00 PM PST SATURDAY THE STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE WAS 19.8 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 29.0 FT LATE SUNDAY
   NIGHT
*  THEN FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 32.0 ON
   MONDAY MORNING
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 32.0 FEET ON MONDAY MORNING
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE NEAR NOON MONDAY
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 15.5 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING
*  FLOOD STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE IS 32.0 FT
*  AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
   RD IS CLOSED.  MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
*  AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING.  LOWER MILL STREET IN
   GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO
   FLOOD.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY (...ENTER DATE AND TIME...) OR 
SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

350 
WGUS86 KMTR 021248
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
448 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE AFFECTING SONOMA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY

.RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NAPA AND RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS
THIS MORNING. RAIN RATES WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BECAUSE 
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS 
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE NAPA RIVER SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BY MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER TO 
FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY MORNING.

CAC055-031248-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0001.121202T2215Z-121203T1337Z/
/SHEC1.1.ER.121202T2215Z.121203T0000Z.121203T0137Z.NR/
448 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA
*  UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
*  AT 2:00 AM PST SUNDAYDAY THE STAGE AT ST HELENA WAS 5.1 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.0 FT BY 3:00 PM PST
   SUNDAY.
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 16.8 FT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 3 FT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
*  FLOOD STAGE AT ST HELENA IS 16.0 FT
*  AT 16.0 FT MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH
   INCLUDING THE LOWEST AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG THE REACH. MANY RURAL
   AREAS INCLUDING SOME PRIMARY ROADS AND MANY SECONDARY ROADS WILL
   HAVE MINOR FLOODING.
*  AT 18.0 FEET MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS LOWER AREAS OF TOWNS 
   ALONG THE REACH. WIDESPREAD CROP LOSSES AND EROSION OF LAND.  
   MANY PRIMARY AND MOST SECONDARY ROADS WILL FLOOD, MAKING TRAVEL
   DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

$$

CAC055-031248-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0003.121203T0030Z-121203T1420Z/
/APCC1.1.ER.121203T0030Z.121203T0100Z.121203T0220Z.NO/
448 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA
*  UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
*  AT 2:00 AM PST SUNDAY THE STAGE NEAR NAPA WAS 11.5 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 22.0 FT BY
   2:00 PM PST ON SUNDAY 
*  THEN FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 25.0 FT
   LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  FORECAST TO CREST AT 25.1 FT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE BELOW 9 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING
*  FLOOD STAGE NEAR NAPA IS 25.0 FT
*  AT 25.0 FEET THE LOWER AREAS OF YOUNTVILLE AND NAPA NEAR THE NAPA
   RIVER WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING. SOME SECONDARY ROADS WILL HAVE
   MINOR FLOODING.

$$

CAC097-031248-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0002.121203T1530Z-121204T0848Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.121203T1530Z.121203T1800Z.121203T2048Z.NO/
448 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER NEAR GUERNVILLE
*  UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
*  AT 2:00 AM PST SUNDAY THE STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE WAS 18.8 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 29.0 FT LATE SUNDAY
   NIGHT
*  THEN FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 32.0 ON
   MONDAY MORNING
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST AT 32.6 FEET ON MONDAY MORNING
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE NEAR NOON MONDAY
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 15.5 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING
*  FLOOD STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE IS 32.0 FT
*  AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
   RD IS CLOSED.  MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
*  AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING.  LOWER MILL STREET IN
   GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO
   FLOOD.

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID 
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10:00 AM PST SUNDAY DECEMBER 2
OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

270 
WGUS86 KMTR 021348 CCA
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
448 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE AFFECTING SONOMA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY

.RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NAPA AND RUSSIAN RIVER BASINS
THIS MORNING. RAIN RATES WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BECAUSE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE NAPA RIVER SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
BY MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING THE LOWER RUSSIAN RIVER TO
FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY MORNING.

CAC055-031345-...CORRECTED
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0001.121202T2215Z-121203T1337Z/
/SHEC1.1.ER.121202T2215Z.121203T0000Z.121203T0137Z.NR/
546 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA
*  UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
*  AT 2:00 AM PST SUNDAY THE STAGE AT ST HELENA WAS 5.1 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 16.0 FT BY 3:00 PM PST
   SUNDAY.
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 16.8 FT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 3 FT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
*  FLOOD STAGE AT ST HELENA IS 16.0 FT
*  AT 16.0 FT MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ENTIRE REACH
   INCLUDING THE LOWEST AREAS OF TOWNS ALONG THE REACH. MANY RURAL
   AREAS INCLUDING SOME PRIMARY ROADS AND MANY SECONDARY ROADS WILL
   HAVE MINOR FLOODING.
*  AT 18.0 FEET MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS LOWER AREAS OF TOWNS
   ALONG THE REACH. WIDESPREAD CROP LOSSES AND EROSION OF LAND.
   MANY PRIMARY AND MOST SECONDARY ROADS WILL FLOOD, MAKING TRAVEL
   DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

$$

CAC055-031400-
/O.EXT.KMTR.FL.W.0003.121203T0030Z-121203T1420Z/
/APCC1.1.ER.121203T0030Z.121203T0100Z.121203T0220Z.NO/
546 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA
*  UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING
*  AT 2:00 AM PST SUNDAY THE STAGE NEAR NAPA WAS 11.5 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 22.0 FT BY
   2:00 PM PST ON SUNDAY
*  THEN FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 25.0 FT
   LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  FORECAST TO CREST AT 25.1 FT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE BELOW 9 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING
*  FLOOD STAGE NEAR NAPA IS 25.0 FT
*  AT 25.0 FEET THE LOWER AREAS OF YOUNTVILLE AND NAPA NEAR THE NAPA
   RIVER WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING. SOME SECONDARY ROADS WILL HAVE
   MINOR FLOODING.

$$

CAC097-031400-
/O.COR.KMTR.FL.W.0002.121203T1530Z-121204T0848Z/
/GUEC1.1.ER.121203T1530Z.121203T1800Z.121203T2048Z.NO/
546 AM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER NEAR GUERNVILLE
*  UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
*  AT 2:00 AM PST SUNDAY THE STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE WAS 18.8 FT
*  FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MONITOR STAGE OF 29.0 FT LATE SUNDAY
   NIGHT
*  THEN FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 32.0 FT ON
   MONDAY MORNING
*  THEN FORECAST TO CREST AT 32.6 FT ON MONDAY MORNING
*  THEN FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE NEAR NOON MONDAY
*  THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 15.5 FT BY TUESDAY EVENING
*  FLOOD STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE IS 32.0 FT
*  AT 32.5 FEET...IN GUERNEVILLE THE INTERSECTON OF HWY 116 AND NEELEY
   RD IS CLOSED.  MAYS CANYON RD BY THE OLD RODEO GROUNDS IS CLOSED.
*  AT 32.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE.  MINOR FLOODING.  LOWER MILL STREET IN
   GUERNEVILLE AND OLD BOHEMIAN HIGHWAY IN MONTE RIO ARE EXPECTED TO
   FLOOD.

$$

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL THOSE AFFECTED BY RIVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPID
CHANGES AND FOR POSSIBLE FORECAST REVISIONS.
$$

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10:00 AM PST SUNDAY DECEMBER 2
OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

686 
WGUS86 KMTR 022320
FLSMTR
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CA
320 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
CALIFORNIA...

  RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE AFFECTING SONOMA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR ST. HELENA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY
  NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA AFFECTING NAPA COUNTY

.A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RUSSIAN AND NAPA
RIVERS. THE NAPA RIVER AT ST HELENA CRESTED AROUND NOON NEAR
16.5 FT...ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE NAPA RIVER 
NEAR ST HELENA HAS SINCE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE NAPA
RIVER NEAR NAPA IS FORECAST TO CREST 3 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE IS
FORECAST TO CREST 5 FEET BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MORE RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL ACROSS THE RUSSIAN
AND NAPA RIVER BASINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MODERATE AND ONLY MODEST RISES
ARE FORECAST ON THE RIVERS.

CAC055-022350-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121203T1337Z/
/SHEC1.1.ER.121202T1716Z.121202T2000Z.121202T2115Z.NR/
320 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NAPA RIVER NEAR ST HELENA
* AT 2:30 PM PST SUNDAY THE STAGE AT ST HELENA WAS 14.1 FT
* FORECAST TO RECEDE TO BELOW 5 FT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FT

$$

CAC055-022350-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-121203T1420Z/
/APCC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
320 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NAPA RIVER NEAR NAPA
* AT 2:00 PM PST SUNDAY THE STAGE NEAR NAPA WAS 21.7 FT
* FORECAST TO RECEDE TO BELOW 10 FT BY MONDAY EVENING
* FLOOD STAGE NEAR NAPA IS 25.0 FT
* AT 22.0 FEET...EROSION OF THE LOWEST AGRICULTURAL AREAS ALONG THE
  NAPA RIVER WILL OCCUR.

$$

CAC097-022350-
/O.CAN.KMTR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-121204T0848Z/
/GUEC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
320 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE
* AT 2:00 PM PST SUNDAY THE STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE WAS 22.7 FT
* FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 27.0 FT EARLY MONDAY MORNING
* THEN FORECAST TO RECEDE TO BELOW 15.0 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* FLOOD STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE IS 32.0 FT


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONTINUE TO BE CAUTIOUS WHILE OUT AND ABOUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS FLOODED AREAS RECEDE SLOWLY.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SCHEDULED STATEMENT UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
932 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

...ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 PM PST FRIDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY WERE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND FROM 3 TO 8
INCHES IN THE HILLS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WERE IN THE NORTH BAY
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS. RAIN TAPERED OFF IN ALL AREAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SINCE THEN ONLY INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEEN OBSERVED AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.
SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
APPROACHING THE COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MOIST FLOW. THUS...WE WILL LIKELY SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RATHER WEAK
AND THE NARROW PLUME OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE HAS TEMPORARILY MOVED
OFF TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...RAIN RATES SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. RAIN IS THEN FORECAST TO TAPER OFF
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THIS RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. ONE FINAL
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLING IN OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
PHASE WITH THE PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOWING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z
GFS AGREE THAT THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
INITIALLY BE JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY.
HOWEVER...RAIN RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTH BAY
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAIN SHOULD THEN BECOME HEAVY NORTH
OF THE GOLDEN GATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP STEADILY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SF BAY AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3-6 HOURS SLOWER WITH THIS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE FASTER GFS TIMING
IS PREFERRED GIVEN THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN PERFORMING BETTER LATELY
IN THIS REGARD. RAINFALL RATES WITH THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE EVEN GREATER THAN WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE N BAY. HOWEVER...THE
PACE AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
FASTER AND SO TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS MAY END UP BEING SIMILAR. THIS
UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN ON TOP OF SATURATED SOIL WILL RESULT IN A
RENEWED THREAT OF FLOODING...IN THE NORTH BAY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ELSEWHERE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH BAY...AS WELL AS THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS FROM SF SOUTHWARD...THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION...MOST HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO END BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE DECISION
WAS MADE TO PULL BACK THE ENDING TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM MONDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

MOST OF THE FLOODING THREAT LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE
TO LOW LYING URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...SIMILAR TO
TODAY. IN FACT...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS PROBABLY MORE
LIKELY GIVEN THE GREATER SOIL SATURATION. ALSO...ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING ON OUR NORTH BAY MAIN STEM RIVERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER NOW SHOWS THE RUSSIAN RIVER GOING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT GUERNEVILLE ON MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE NAPA RIVER AT SAINT HELENA IS FORECAST TO REACH
FLOOD STAGE EARLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAPA RIVER AT NAPA
IS FORECAST TO PEAK JUST SHY OF FLOOD STAGE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS TO
INCLUDE THE NAPA RIVER AND ALSO TO INCREASE STAGE FORECAST FOR
THE RUSSIAN RIVER.

THE THREAT OF MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN HAS ALSO
INCREASED DUE TO THE RECENT AND EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN. HAVE
MENTIONED THIS THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL AS
IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS WITH THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS THEY WERE WITH THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW HOURS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS OF THE SF BAY
AREA. WILL CONSIDER ISSUANCE OF WIND ADVISORIES ON THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT.

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR AREA WILL SEE DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS MORE RAIN BY TUESDAY. THE GFS HAD BEEN
TRENDING WETTER WITH THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH BAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON TUE/WED.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:31 PM PST FRIDAY...STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO
FALL IN THE NORTH BAY AREA WITH SHOWERS IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
AREA. THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING COLD CLOUD
TOPS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STEADY RAIN...PASSING OVER SANTA ROSA.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AT MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM KSFO NORTH SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

VICINITY OF KSFO...PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT PLUS SATURDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KT...WITH WINDS TO 15 KT IN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO PERSISTENT
RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:00 AM PST FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE REALLY DROPPED OFF
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR THE GOLDEN GATE
AND SOUTH OF MONTEREY BAY.  IN ADDITION...LARGE LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELLS BETWEEN 13 AND 16 FEET AT 13 SECONDS WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ENTIRE NORTH BAY...COASTAL AREAS AND
             COASTAL MOUNTAINS FROM SAN FRANCISCO SOUTH TO THE BIG SUR
             COAST AND THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.
            HIGH SURF ADVISORY...THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
            SCA...ROUGH BAR ADVISORY FOR SF BAR UNTIL 3 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: MM/CR

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
500 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

CAZ505-011400-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
500 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTH BAY.

.DAY ONE...FRIDAY NIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. BUT RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT
IN INTENSITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

*  FLASH FLOOD WATCH....SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS66 KMTR FOR DETAILS  *

IN ADDITION...THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE IS FORECAST TO RISE
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

*  FLOOD WATCH....SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS66 KMTR FOR DETAILS  *

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS COULD RESULT IN
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.

LARGE OCEAN SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK AT THE COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
PST SATURDAY MORNING.

*  HIGH SURF ADVISORY....SEE SFOCFWMTR WHUS46 KMTR FOR DETAILS  *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ006-509-529-530-011400-
SAN FRANCISCO-SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-
SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-
500 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAN FRANCISCO...THE SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST...THE MONTEREY BAY COAST AND THE BIG SUR
COAST.

.DAY ONE...FRIDAY NIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. BUT RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT
IN INTENSITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

*  FLASH FLOOD WATCH....SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS66 KMTR FOR DETAILS  *

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS COULD RESULT IN
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.

LARGE OCEAN SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK AT THE COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
PST SATURDAY MORNING.

*  HIGH SURF ADVISORY....SEE SFOCFWMTR WHUS46 KMTR FOR DETAILS  *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ506-507-011400-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
500 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...FRIDAY NIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. BUT RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT
IN INTENSITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

*  FLASH FLOOD WATCH....SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS66 KMTR FOR DETAILS  *

IN ADDITION...THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE IS FORECAST TO RISE
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE RUSSIAN RIVER AT GUERNEVILLE THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

*  FLOOD WATCH....SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS66 KMTR FOR DETAILS  *

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS COULD RESULT IN
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE HILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ512-517-011400-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
500 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND
THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...FRIDAY NIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. BUT RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT
IN INTENSITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ON SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

*  FLASH FLOOD WATCH....SEE SFOFFAMTR WGUS66 KMTR FOR DETAILS  *

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS COULD RESULT IN
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE HILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ508-510-511-513-516-518-528-011400-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY INCLUDING
PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
500 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EAST BAY VALLEYS AND
HILLS...THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE...THE SANTA CLARA
VALLEY...AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY AND
SAN BENITO COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...FRIDAY NIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. BUT RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT
IN INTENSITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ON SUNDAY.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS COULD RESULT IN
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE HILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DYKEMA