Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
312 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2012

...Flash Flood Watch For Flathead and Lincoln counties through
midnight...

...Middle 90s by Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...Atmospheric moisture levels to 200 percent of normal
continue across northwestern Montana. Combining exceptional moisture
with weak lift and very warm temperatures, you have ingredients for
thunderstorms to contain very heavy rainfall. With the radar
showing increasing coverage of heavy rain-producing thunderstorms,
a flash flood watch has been issued for the Flathead and Lincoln
counties through late this evening. The upper level cut-off low
will continue to meander along the southwestern Oregon coast tonight
into Wednesday, while warmer and drier air is expected to move
northward with time. The weather models are now in more agreement
with hot temperatures. Expect temperatures to be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s which will be 3 to 5 degrees above normal. There may be a
chance that some mid-level moisture and clouds may keep temperatures
cooler than forecast across north-central Idaho. With low level
moisture levels still above normal, a chance for isolated
thunderstorms remains in the forecast on Wednesday. Finally the
upper level system will be dislodged from its quasi-stationary
position and track over the Northern Rockies on Friday. The
impacts from this system will be a tightening of the wind gradient
from Lemhi county to southwest Montana. Combine this with very
warm temperatures and winds could be sustained 20 to 30 mph with
gusts to 40 mph in these areas. This also will drive down the
relative humidity levels into the teens. Also on Friday, thunderstorms
with exist across northwest Montana, some of which may be severe.

Extended range model runs have shifted from a high pressure
solution to a persistent southwest flow solution in the past day
for the Saturday through Tuesday period. Due to the wild shift in
pattern depicted, precipitation chances have been nudged closer to
climatology while temperatures have been maintained. Confidence in
extended forecast is fairly low considering all of the
aforementioned inconsistencies.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will exist across northwest Montana through 18/0600Z,
occasionally impacting KGPI terminal during this time. Heavy rain
is possible with these thunderstorms, limiting visibility and
lowering ceilings from time to time. Elsewhere across the Northern
Rockies, scattered thunderstorms will exist through 18/0600Z, however
there are lower chances that KMSO, KBTM, or KSMN will be impacted.
Terrain obscurations will be common through 18/0600Z as well.
Thereafter, ceilings will begin to dissipate. Thunderstorms will
develop once again after 18/2100Z, however they will be isolated
in nature.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Smith/Zumpfe/Noble/Johnson
Aviation...Smith

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