Fire Weather Watch 13, NWS Missoula, MT

222 
WWUS85 KMSO 010929
RFWMSO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
329 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

MTZ110-011030-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FW.A.0013.120901T1800Z-120902T0400Z/
DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD-
329 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. 

WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGHER THAN INITIALLY
FORECASTED.

$$

MTZ105-020400-
/O.UPG.KMSO.FW.A.0013.120901T1800Z-120902T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMSO.FW.W.0019.120901T1800Z-120902T0400Z/
FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK-
329 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE
FLATHEAD/GLACIER PARK...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MINIMUM HUMIDITIES: HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE MID TEENS.

* TIMING/LOCATION: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
  THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
  IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 105 WILL BE
  MOST AFFECTED BY THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOW RH...INCLUDING
  THE SWAN LAKE AND SPOTTED BEAR DISTRICTS IN THE FLATHEAD
  NATIONAL FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS INTENDED TO ALERT LAND MANAGERS TO EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS...WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FIRE DANGER.

&&

$$

MTZ108-020400-
/O.UPG.KMSO.FW.A.0013.120901T1800Z-120902T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KMSO.FW.W.0019.120901T1800Z-120902T0400Z/
EAST LOLO-
329 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE EAST LOLO...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS: WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MINIMUM HUMIDITIES: HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER INTO THE MID TEENS.

* TIMING: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
  NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
  IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS INTENDED TO ALERT LAND MANAGERS TO EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS...WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FIRE DANGER.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
321 AM MDT Fri Aug 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...An area of monsoon moisture is beginning to move
into southern and eastern Idaho this morning, as shown on
current infrared satellite loops. Cloud cover will increase
through the morning and isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are of concern through southeast Idaho into
southwest/west central Montana today. Smoke and increased cloud
cover should keep the convective potential lowered today, so at
this time widespread lightning activity is not expected. The main
concern from storms that form today will be gusty winds and
lightning. Rain will be confined to the core of any cell so most
locations will not receive beneficial rain. Although lightning and
gusty winds associated with the monsoon moisture could add to fire
weather concerns, humidity values will not be as low as the past
couple of days, and confidence in thunderstorm coverage is not
high enough to issue a Red Flag Warning.

A trough is still expected to pass through northwest Montana on
Saturday. The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of this trough,
so increased wind is a concern, but cloud cover will remain in
southwest Montana that will keep humidities up and winds potential
lowered. This combination of not as much wind and not as dry
should again keep most of the area out of a Red Flag Warning, but
the potential is still there for portions of west central Montana.
Cooler, near normal temperatures are expected this weekend, but
relief for areas with smoke does not look good.

Next week will remain warm, dry, and breezy. Confidence in the
details is low mainly due to the impact of several tropical
systems in the western hemisphere causing a lot of variability in
forecast models.

However, models are coming into much better agreement on the
bigger picture. A ridge will develop over the eastern Pacific
Ocean causing dry northwesterly flow over northwest and eastern
Montana. High pressure over the central and southwest US will
cause southwest flow over central Idaho and southwestern Montana.
Where these two flows meet, over southwest Montana, very dry air
originating off the California coast will be drawn into the region
causing very dry, windy conditions to continue. The only moisture
near the region will be from the southwest monsoon, however, the
strength of the Pacific ridge will keep that airmass pressed to
the southeast over Wyoming and Colorado.

A stronger system will move through this pattern on Tuesday,
making it the coolest day in the extended forecast. Also, the
strongest winds of the extended are expected on Tuesday with this
system. Wednesday and Thursday start warm again with temperatures
slightly above normal. All the dry air will allow better cooling
at night with low temperatures a few degrees below normal. Valley
inversions will strengthen again trapping smoke from any wildfires
still burning.

&&

.AVIATION...Smoke from area wildfires will cause partial mountain
obscurations and lower visibility at terminals in central Idaho
and western Montana. KSMN and KBTM will likely have the most
problems with smoke. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover and
isolated thunderstorms over Lemhi county Idaho and southwest
Montana from a wave of monsoon moisture entering the area.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

Kitsmiller/Leach