Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Marquette, MI

764 
WHUS73 KMQT 160918
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

LSZ249>251-161500-
/O.CAN.KMQT.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KMQT.SC.Y.0009.120116T0918Z-120116T1500Z/
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
EST THIS MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  5 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 7 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY WITH
  THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ248-250-161730-
/O.CAN.KMQT.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KMQT.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120116T1900Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  10 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 15 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY WITH
  THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY.

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ263-264-161030-
/O.CAN.KMQT.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T1200Z/
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE NATIONAL PARK-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

LSZ241-161030-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120117T1800Z/
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012 /318 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LSZ240-248-161030-
/O.CAN.KMQT.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120116T1200Z/
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012 /318 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012/

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

LSZ266-267-161200-
/O.CON.KMQT.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120116T1200Z/
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE GALE WARNING: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  OF UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET WITH A 
  MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY WITH
  THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ242-243-161730-
/O.EXT.KMQT.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120116T2200Z/
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 24 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  6 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY WITH
  THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ244-245-161730-
/O.EXT.KMQT.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  9 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 14 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY WITH
  THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST TUESDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ246-247-161200-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120116T1200Z/
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 18 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 24 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  7 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY WITH
  THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ221-161730-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-120116T1800Z/
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-
418 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  9 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY WITH
  THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
643 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 415 PM EST

LES CONTINUES OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH VIS FALLING TO A MILE
AT TIMES AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AT ERY. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THIS BAND SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTY. WHILE A QUICK HALF AN INCH OR SO AN HOUR COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE BAND...THE MOBILE NATURE
SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

THE STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...TOPPING OUT FROM THIS AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXTENT OF
THE WARM AIR SLIDING FROM EASTERN MN ACROSS N WI IS OF A
CONCERN...AS THE 15/15Z RUN OF THE RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS AROUND 0C NEAR
ID AS EARLY AS 03Z MONDAY /3 TO 5C WARMER THAN THE CONSENSUS/.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...TOPPING OUT 15Z MONDAY AROUND 0C FROM
CENTRAL WI THROUGH DELTA AND SOUTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES. WHILE ONE
FCST MODEL DOES SPIT OUT LITE PRECIP OVER THIS AREA AS EARLY AS
EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 03Z MONDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE LATER AND ONLY INCLUDE FLURRIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...AS A SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH NEARS FROM
CENTRAL MN. IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
FZDZ OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST SNOW GROWTH LAYER AROUND 700MB AT
IMT...AND ALL THE MOISTURE STUCK BELOW THE INVERSION HOVERING AROUND
900MB. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FZDZ IN THE FCST AND THE HWO. LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WAA...AS MOISTURE
ESCAPES THE AVG 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER N WI. DEW POINTS LOOK
MINIMAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MELTING THOUGH...EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW 20F RANGE AT BEST. THE BEST MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...SLIDING NE INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY BY LATE EVENING
BEFORE A MORE SW WIND TAKES HOLD.

AS FOR MONDAY...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE CWA AS
WINDS TURN W AND NW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS ACROSS. EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO BE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 12Z
MONDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR AND IWD.
BY 18Z IT WILL LIKELY STRETCH ACROSS ALGER AND MENOMINEE
COUNTIES...BEFORE EXITING EAST BY 00Z. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
WIND SHIFT AND CLOUD COVER...WITH MUCH OF THE COLD AIR WAITING FOR A
UNTIL THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING LES TO THE FAR W...WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL PREFERENCE REMAINS WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
12Z/00Z ECMWF SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET WHICH BRING THE SFC LOW NEAR
CHICAGO BY 12Z/TUE AND TO DTW BY 18Z/TUE. THE GEM REMAINED STRONGER
AND FARTHER NORTH WHILE THE GFS WAS FARTHER SOUTH. MODERATE 700-300
QVECTOR CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIV
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER ONTARIO WILL
SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. INCREASING NRLY WINDS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -15C BY 12Z/TUE AND TO NEAR -18C BY 18Z/TUE WILL LEAD TO
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR NORTH WIND SNOWBELTS. NAM COBB SNOW/WATER
RATIO OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHER SNOW/WATER RATIOS ARE MORE
LIKELY OVER THE WEST...WHERE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLIER. SNOWFALL
TOTAL GENERALLY IN THE ADVY CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED WITH 18 HOUR
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO AT
MOST ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE ACYC FLOW
BUILD INTO THE AREA. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK MORE TO THE WNW ON TUES
NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES THE AREA.  LES INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH BUT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (850 MB TEMPS STILL AROUND
-19C). SO WITH SNOWBAND POSITIONS SHIFTING OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU...THE GFS WAS FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN QUICK WNW FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN LIMITED
CONFIDENCE WITH FCST DETAILS...ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE
SNOW WERE INCLUDED. NW FLOW LES WILL AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE
-20C TO -25C RANGE.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AFTER A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THU
NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA FRI.

SAT INTO SUN...ECMWF/GFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SHOW TRANSITION
TOWARD A MILDER PATTERN WITH A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUN AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PCPN AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT ANY PCPN WOULD LIKELY BE
LIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

CHALLENGING FCST IS SHAPING UP FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. GUIDANCE POINTS TO STRATUS DEVELOPING UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRES TRACKING E INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN...LOW CLOUDS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS DO SEEM
FAVORABLE GIVEN HIGHER DWPTS ADVECTING N INTO COOLER AIRMASS OVER
SNOWPACK ACROSS NRN WI/UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...OPTED
TO GO WITH THE GUIDANCE IDEA OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT KSAW AS UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A LOW
MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CIG. LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT MIXING/GUSTY WINDS TO THE SFC TO PRECLUDE LLWS. COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA MON. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WINDS AT
KIWD/KCMX WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOWER MVFR CIGS AT THOSE 2
SITES.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH TO OUR SE...AND NEARING LOW TO THE
WEST...STRENGTHENING SW FLOW WITH GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /STRONGEST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LS/. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MANITOBA WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND EXIT
TO WESTERN QUEBEC WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE TROUGH...FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE EJECTING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT A 30.2 INCH RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS LS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THE SHIFT TO WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN FILL FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER LOW NEARS FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ244-245-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-161300-
KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-
GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
500 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012 /400 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR NORTH WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MODERATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-161300-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE NATIONAL PARK-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
500 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012 /400 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LMZ221-248-250-161300-
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
500 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY GALES FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

SRF