Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Marquette, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
434 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND UPPER MID HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI. THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG WITH THE SEVERITY OF SAID
STORMS. THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE FARTHER EASTERN AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE A REDUCTION IN INTENSITY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL HELP TO INCREASE STABILITY. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
NOT BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE. MU CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. WITH AROUND
600-800 J/KG OF THIS RESIDING IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...SHOWN BY THE
EC/GFS/NAM.  LAPSE RATES ARE NOT INCREDIBLY STEEP AS MID LEVELS
RATES ARE AROUND 6 TO 6.5 C/KM AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND
8 C/KM. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VALUES NEAR 30 TO 35
KNOTS...HOWEVER THE STRONGER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT WITH VALUES APPROACHING 70 KNOTS. THE SHEAR VECTOR IS
ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG THANKS
TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS AS SHOWN BY NAM
AND GFS SOUNDINGS.  0-1KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...HAVE ADDED HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH FRONT GENERALLY SLOWING DOWN OVER
THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN U.P. AROUND 08Z TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL COME TO AN END OVER
MOST OF THE UPPER PENINSULA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...HELPING
TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MINIMIZED. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT OR AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD 00Z FRI...THERE WILL BE A LARGE SCALE
500MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THERE WILL
BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE JUST DOWNSTREAM /POSSIBLY WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS DIPPIPATING INLAND UNTIL A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER 00Z
FRI/...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER FAR NW MN/SRN MANITOBA. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WNW BETWEEN A SFC LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN LIMITED CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIP.

SFC RIDGE PASSES OVER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BRINGING DRY
WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL COME LATE SAT
INTO SUN MORNING AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC TROUGH PASS OVER
THE CWA. GIVEN MODEL SPREAD OF WHERE THE BEST PRECIP WILL GO...WILL
KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY.

PRETTY QUIET AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE NEXT SYSTEM MODELS
MOVE NEARBY LOOKS TO COME ON MON OR TUE...AS THEY SHOW THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY MOVE E OF THE CWA...OR OVER THE FAR ERN
CWA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL
IMPACT NEARLY ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS...AS THE 12Z/20 GFS MOVES IT TO
JUST E OF THE CWA BY 00Z TUE AND THE 00Z/20 ECMWF MOVES IT THERE BY
06Z WED. MODELS ALSO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING
FROM RUN TO RUN. WILL JUST USE A 50/50 BLEND OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO ALL THREE TAF
SITES. AS OF 18Z...A STRONG LINE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT...AS
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THINK THAT THE
GUSTIER WINDS OUT OF THE WEST /ONCE THE FRONT PASSES/ WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES IN CHECK...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT ALL THREE SITES IFR OR
HIGHER. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST AS
THE FRONT PASSES AROUND 00Z IN THE WESTERN U.P. AND AROUND 5Z FOR
CENTRAL AREAS/KSAW/. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 KTS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE THEM IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THANKS TO THE STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25
KNOTS...MAINLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MCB
MARINE...KEC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-212045-
KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-
GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
437 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012 /337 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY EAST OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO ESCANABA.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-212045-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE NATIONAL PARK-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
437 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012 /337 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
EVENING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAINLY OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

LMZ221-248-250-212045-
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
437 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
429 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LITTLE GIRLS POINT      46.61N 90.33W
06/20/2012                   GOGEBIC            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON LAKE ROAD

&&

TITUS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
451 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

MIZ001>003-202115-
HOUGHTON-KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-
451 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HOUGHTON...KEWEENAW AND ONTONAGON
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 449 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH RANGE...OR 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOUGHTON.  THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DONKEN...
  TOIVOLA...
  SOUTH RANGE...
  HANCOCK...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

MCB