Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 26/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS H500 TEMPS OF -14C AND H700 TEMPS OF 2C WITHIN THE
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS WAVE WILL BE
WEAKENING WITH TIME...DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION AS THIS WAVE
PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL PROMOTE CONVECTION DESPITE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 10KFT AGL...EXPECT TO SEE SOME HAIL WITH A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...OUT WEST A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ITS MARCH SOUTHEAST. THIS MORNING LOW STRATUS BLANKETED
THIS POST FRONTAL REGION...SO EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM. WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT...LEANING TOWARD MORE A STRATUS
FORECAST THAN FOG DEVELOPMENT. /JRB

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS A FEAT
THAT HAS NOT BEEN ACCOMPLISHED IN OVER A MONTH ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE BUFFALO
RIDGE. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...SPAWNED
FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE/LIFT ATTENDANT WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND NOSES INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MN ON
SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED 20-30 POPS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BRING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY AREA-
WIDE...WHEN MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONSISTENCY
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. NOT
EXTREMELY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/LIFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN THE 20-40 POPS THAT WERE
INHERITED. UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER 80 TO 90 DEGREE READINGS FOR SUNDAY.

NOISY WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COMPLICATE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES
WILL BE DIFFICULT...SO A PROLONGED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS TOUGH TO AVOID. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES IS
NOTABLY HIGHER...WITH HIGHS FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES AND LOWS FROM 60
TO 70 APPEARING LIKELY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT
WIDELY SCT IN NATURE.  BECOMING MORE BANDED AS WELL...WITH BEST
THUNDER THREAT NOW LIMITED.  WONT MENTION ANY THUNDER BUT WILL
CONTINUE VCSH AT MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH 02Z.  LAYERED CLOUDS ALSO
REMAIN AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST.  DO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS COLD CORE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.  WONT GO BELOW 1500 FEET AND WILL KEEP FOG 3SM OR ABOVE AT
NORTHEAST LOCATIONS.  MODELS SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING
OVER WI LATER TONIGHT AND HANGING BACK OVER EASTERN MN.  SREF MVFR
PROBS ALONG WITH SOME FOG ARE HIGHEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS
SHOULD LIFT IN THE MORNING AND BECOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 4K FEE IN
THE AFTERNOON.  SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING MOST AREAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST BECOMING NORTH OAS SURFACE RIDGE DROPS INTO
THE REGION.  SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

KMSP...HAVE A BAND OF SHRA DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MN AND
MAY YET AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.  WILL MENTION VCSH FOR
THIS.  LAYERED CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK EARLY...THEN WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS WORK IN LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.  THIS WILL
LIFT BY MID MORNING AND BECOME VFR...WITH CLEARING BY EVENING
ANTICIPATED.  NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS FOR FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK/
SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS S AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

LRS/DE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
271945-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94.  A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
QUARTERS IN SIZE AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER RESIDING OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. BOTH THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW...RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THESE DAYS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
417 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

MNZ058-065>067-262215-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-
417 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

AT 414 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HECTOR. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HECTOR.
  BUFFALO LAKE.
  STEWART.
  FERNANDO.
  BROWNTON.
  SUMTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4472 9400 4447 9404 4470 9488 4490 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 289DEG 30KT 4475 9471

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

MNZ067>069-076-077-262315-
CARVER-LE SUEUR-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
527 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER CARVER...LE SUEUR...
RICE...SCOTT AND SIBLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

AT 523 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BELLE PLAINE TO 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LE SUEUR TO LE SUEUR. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BELLE PLAINE.
  ST BENEDICT.
  HELENA.
  VESELI.
  NEW MARKET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4457 9331 4437 9332 4427 9345 4442 9393
      4451 9387 4465 9377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 289DEG 36KT 4462 9370 4448 9373
          4443 9385

CLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

MNZ069-070-077-078-WIZ024-262345-
DAKOTA-GOODHUE-PIERCE-RICE-SCOTT-
554 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO DAKOTA...GOODHUE...PIERCE...RICE AND
SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

AT 550 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DIAMOND BLUFF TO NEW TRIER
TO 5 MILES NORTH OF VESELI. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  DIAMOND BLUFF.
  CASTLE ROCK.
  ESDAILE.
  WELCH.
  CANNON FALLS.
  STANTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4462 9221 4448 9248 4442 9299 4460 9353
      4465 9304 4472 9260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 293DEG 29KT 4465 9258 4461 9292
          4458 9343

CLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

MNZ078-270015-
GOODHUE-
630 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER GOODHUE COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

AT 626 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF CANNON
FALLS TO 3 MILES WEST OF WASTEDO TO 5 MILES EAST OF NERSTRAND. THESE
STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WASTEDO.
  HADER.
  WANAMINGO.
  ZUMBROTA.
  GOODHUE.
  BELLECHESTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4436 9304 4441 9298 4449 9297 4444 9245
      4436 9245 4435 9254 4420 9254 4419 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 288DEG 35KT 4446 9285 4438 9285
          4433 9292

CLF