Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
800 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM CDT

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DYING SFC CDFNT SHIFTING E THIS
AFTN...ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH MN...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION HAVING
SPAWNED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A
STACKED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO SWINGING THROUGH MN INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. SFC OBS SHOW A DEFINITIVE WIND SHIFT LINE BUT
OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FROM ONE
SIDE TO THE OTHER AND THERE IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE NOTICEABLE DROPS
IN DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY HEIGHTENED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH 2500-3000 K/KG MUCAPE...INCLUDING 1000-1500 J/KG
OF DCAPE. LI/S ARE ALSO DOWN TO ARND -8C WITH NO MORE EXISTING
CAP. THERE IS STILL THE PROBLEM OF VERY LITTLE SHEAR AND ONLY
MODERATELY IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES...SO THERE REMAINS THE SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BUT ONLY ISOLD AT BEST. WITH THESE STORMS
GOING IN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...AM EXPECTING THEM TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. THE
WEAK CDFNT /OR WIND SHIFT LINE/ WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR SATURDAY THAT WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT...
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
ONLY DROPPING TO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE. AS FOR TOMORROW...EVEN
WITH W-NW FLOW BEHIND THE FNT...A SECONDARY FNT WOBBLING NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL KEEP THE WARM AIR IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE AREA TMRW. SOME SPOTS IN
FAR SWRN MN MAY EVEN CLIMB INTO THE LWR 90S WITH PLENTY OF SUN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG RIDGING BOTH AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO
ARND 20C ON SUNDAY THEN INCREASE TO NEARLY 25C ON MON. TRANSLATING
TO THE SFC...THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ON SUN
FOLLOWED BY MID-UPR 90S ON MON. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THAT SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...REACHING NEARLY 70F BY
MON. STRONG CAPPING WILL PREVENT ANY STORMS...BUT THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGHER MAX TEMPS AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HEAT ADVY CONDITIONS OVER THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 70S. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE MODELS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW RUNS BEFORE MAKING THE DETERMINATION ON ANY SUPPLEMENTAL
PRODUCTS. THE RIDGE STARTS TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE LATE MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL SFC FRONTS EITHER APPROACHING NEAR OVER PASSING OVER THE
REGION. THE MAIN COMPLICATION IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEMS THAT WILL MAKE THE PRECIP FORECAST QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. LONG-RANGE MODELS FREQUENTLY HIGHLIGHT POPS NO HIGHER
THAN 20 PERCENT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE PROLONGED DRY PERIOD
MAKES TRYING TO PINPOINT A LOCATION QUITE DIFFICULT SO HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST TUE-WED WHILE A MORE DEFINED SFC FRONT
ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
DEEP PLAINS HIGH PRES THAT GIVE SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE POPS FOR THU. AS FOR TEMPS...THE RELAXING UPPER HIGH WILL
MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TUE-WED...DROPPING BACK INTO THE
80S. BUT...THE POTENTIAL APPROACH OF ANOTHER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE THE START OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... /008Z TAF ISSUANCE/

LINE OF TSTMS RUNNING FROM NEAR KEAU TOWARD KAEL CONTINUING TO MOVE
EAST 20 KTS. ONCE THIS LINE MOVE THRU ANY FURTEHR TSTMS WILL VERY
ISOLATED AND MAY AFFECT STC/MSP AND RNH/EAU UNTIL AROUND 04Z.
CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WITH BE WITH FOG FORMATION WITH PCPN WHICH
OCCURED THIS EVENING AS SFC WIND FIELD BECOMES LIGHT.  THIS WOULD
AFFECT MAINLY EAU/RNH WHICH SHUD SEE A PRD OF IFR AFT 08Z...WITH IFR
VSBYS ALSO PSBL AT STC.

KMSP...MAIN THREAT OF TSTMS HAS MOVED E OF MSP..BUT FEW SHWRS
CONTINUE UPSTREAM N OF STC.  ATTM EXPECT THREAT TO BE SMALL ENUF TO
LEAVE OUT OF TAF.  WITH PCPN EARLIER THIS EVENING MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DVLP...MAINLY IN MN RIVER VALLEY.

/OUTLOOK/
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5-15 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS S-SW 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPC/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
236 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
141300-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
236 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO LITTLE FALLS. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED... A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL AROUND ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER... ALONG WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON SATURDAY...
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY... ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY... WITH HEAT
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
747 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             2 NNE BRICELYN          43.59N 93.79W
07/13/2012  E1.00 INCH       FARIBAULT          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
757 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

MNZ093-140145-
FREEBORN-
757 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CENTRAL FREEBORN COUNTY THROUGH
845 PM CDT...

AT 753 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR MANCHESTER. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MANCHESTER.
  CLARKS GROVE.
  ALBERT LEA.
  HAYWARD.
  GLENVILLE.

LAT...LON 4371 9309 4351 9322 4365 9357 4382 9347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 295DEG 11KT 4370 9340

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
802 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             5 NE BRICELYN           43.61N 93.74W
07/13/2012  M1.00 INCH       FARIBAULT          MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT CROP DAMAGE REPORTED FROM LARGE HAIL.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
807 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             4 S ALDEN               43.61N 93.57W
07/13/2012  M1.25 INCH       FREEBORN           MN   STORM CHASER

            HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR 10 MINUTES.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
828 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             1 E MANCHESTER          43.72N 93.43W
07/13/2012  M1.00 INCH       FREEBORN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
853 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

MNZ085-093-140230-
FREEBORN-STEELE-
853 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE FREEBORN AND STEELE
COUNTY LINE THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

AT 848 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR GENEVA. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GENEVA.
  BLOOMING PRAIRIE.

LAT...LON 4391 9333 4392 9315 4392 9303 4385 9303
      4379 9305 4378 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 267DEG 24KT 4385 9320