Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
716 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER COLD FRONT. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPES NOT FAR BEHIND.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KNOTS PLUS VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON
AND MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. COLD AIR
ALOFT/UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS INTO THE CENTRAL CWA. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCE
SHOWERS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IF INDEED SHOWERS DEVELOP
AND MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL
COOL OFF SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM TODAYS TEMPERATURES.

CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE FOR TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
RETURN FLOW AND INCOMING SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER INTO MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST AND SHOULD FOCUS MAIN THREAT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

LONGER TERM MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER
AIR PATTERN...WITH THE THE GFS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS LATER IN THE PERIOD AND IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEST COAST
TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND DRIVES ANOTHER BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH EVENTUAL RIDGING/HIGHER HEIGHTS ENVELOPING THE AREA...WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED LINE OF THUNDERSTORM STRETCHING ACROSS
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 40-45MPH...BUT THE WHOLE AREA OF SHOWERS IS ONLY
TRANSLATING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SO...THE STORMS WILL TAKE THEIR
TIME CLEARING MN AND MOVING INTO WI. THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IN THE STORMS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR VIS AND MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 06Z...OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED. STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

KMSP...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA UNTIL ROUGHLY 04Z THIS
EVENING. THE INTENSITY OF STORMS HAS REALLY FALLEN OFF...BUT THERE
ARE NUMEROUS UPDRAFTS AND CONVECTIVE TOWERS OUT THERE. NAVIGATING
AIRCRAFT AROUND THE TOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
01-03Z. WIND SHIFT STILL EXPECT NEAR 01Z WITH THE GUST FRONT.
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT RAMP BACK UP OUT OF THE WEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. COULD GET SOME CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND A FEW SHOWERS
AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

.TUE...VFR/SKC. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
.WED...VFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS WEST.
VFR EAST. S WINDS 10-15 KT.
.THU...VFR TO MVFR WITH ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS NORTH. VFR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPC/CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
121 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
111000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
121 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM
IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. PLAN ON TAKING EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OUTSIDE. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THOUGH THE MOST LIKELY PERIODS FOR STORMS
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
735 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNZ045-052-053-060>062-068-069-110130-
ANOKA-CARVER-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-RAMSEY-SCOTT-
735 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER ANOKA...CARVER...CHISAGO...HENNEPIN...
ISANTI...KANABEC...RAMSEY AND SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

AT 732 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WARMAN TO 3 MILES EAST OF
COLOGNE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LORETTO.
  ORONO.
  HAMEL.
  SHOREWOOD.
  EXCELSIOR.
  WOODLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS ALONG THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4598 9304 4597 9313 4574 9314 4573 9286
      4557 9288 4556 9285 4529 9293 4529 9302
      4513 9302 4512 9299 4492 9305 4489 9318
      4479 9332 4475 9333 4473 9380 4521 9365
      4525 9351 4563 9352 4605 9338 4616 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 221DEG 28KT 4606 9329 4477 9371

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
803 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROWNTON                44.73N 94.35W
06/10/2012                   MCLEOD             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON VEHICLE. DUGOUT AND FENCE AT A BASEBALL
            FIELD BLOWN OVER. PINE TREES OF 2 FEET IN DIAMETER BLOWN
            OVER.

&&

SPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
821 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N ST FRANCIS          45.46N 93.36W
06/10/2012                   ISANTI             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 47 AND COUNTY ROAD 53,
            FOUR 5 INCH BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

SPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
829 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE COLOGNE           44.72N 93.77W
06/10/2012                   CARVER             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

&&

SPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
849 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW BELLE PLAINE      44.55N 93.80W
06/10/2012                   SCOTT              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE, SHED DOWN, AND A 48 FOOT GRAIN BIN
            BLOWN INTO A FIELD.

&&

SPD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
850 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNZ044-045-051-052-110230-
ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-SHERBURNE-
850 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER ISANTI...KANABEC...MILLE LACS AND
SHERBURNE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

AT 846 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF ZIMMERMAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ZIMMERMAN.
  PRINCETON.
  DALBO.
  MILACA.
  BOCK.
  LEWIS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 9313 4542 9332 4541 9372 4581 9376
      4581 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 193DEG 28KT 4549 9351

JPC